|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
01-10-2013, 04:37 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 102
|
Penn Race 2 1/10/2012
My new years resolution was to Bet smart in 2013 with that being said I have not made a bet in 2013!!! I have been using RDSS for almost a year and have had success but its been intermittent. Maybe the issue is not selecting the right lines or just not knowing enough about horse racing. I have been reading the teaching files and thought what a great way to get a little help or feedback on my selections.
I am having problems posting my screenshots but heres the scenario. This is a 5K claiming race where it looks like there is one early horse that could wire this field. But according to the segments screen this horse is not even a contender. I am talking about horse #1 |
01-10-2013, 04:51 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 102
|
Screenshots for above race
Rebooted computer and screenshots loaded fine. I have comments on each screenshot trying to explain what I was thinking and what left me scratching my head.
|
01-10-2013, 05:37 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
|
Aldens Dad
The #1 #4 & #8 are scratched.
Rerun the race and post again. I am running Pen tonight also. rmath |
01-10-2013, 06:59 PM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Pass
Here is the winner and the Result
The winner came back to its plus races form and sat just behind the 5 horse |
01-11-2013, 04:07 AM | #5 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
|
Quote:
Take a look at the first call history of each horse. Do you really think the #12 horse is going to be 14 lengths in front of the #1 horse at the first call, especially when you consider the post they are breaking from and that there are other horses in between them that will also try for the lead? You already made the point of "class", so I don't have to expand on that. With regard to "RC" (race class), the race class assigned to each race is based on "strength of field", not claiming price or condition. This is a Trackmaster calculation. As you review every horse, you should make a visual inspection of how the horse runs and change the "RS" label. Do NOT accept what the program provides unless you agree. Do you own work in this regard. In this case, the #12 horse is a "P" with "1" Quirin Speed point. On the other hand, the #1 is an "E" with "7" Quirin Speed Points. Again, do you really think the #12 is going to be 14 lengths in front of the #12? This "visual" inspection, by you, is more important than the E/L sticks when it comes to where you can expect each horse to be positionally.Many horses expend their energy early, but DO NOT RUN EARLY. Finally, the #12 horse had just one win from 19 starts last year and is just 3 for 31 lifetime, while the #1 had 3 wins from just 11 starts last year and is 3 for 14 lifetime. This simply tells you the #1 wins more often on a percentage basis than the #12. Horses that do not win very often are usually bad bets.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
|
01-11-2013, 10:31 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 102
|
I see what your saying FTL and I didn't have time to rework this race with the scratches but I did have the winner in my top 6 and he was the last one to go before I had my top 5.
Looking at the 12 horse again there is no way he will be 14 lengths ahead of anybody at the first call. I have to realize that the program is not always right and just go with the visual evidence that is presented to me in the program. I understand what your saying about RC and strength of horses not just conditions of the race. I really do appreciate everyone's time for posting. |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Adjustments Question | Ted Craven | RDSS2 / FAQ's | 3 | 06-29-2014 03:22 PM |
UPDATED - Official Contest Rules, beginning AUGUST | Ted Craven | August Contest | 1 | 07-24-2012 10:09 PM |
Official Contest Rules (please respond in the Poll to enter the Contest) | Ted Craven | Contest Admin Stuff | 1 | 05-31-2012 12:48 PM |
Bad RDSS Race Data for several Euro Horses | Ted Craven | 2011 | 2 | 11-03-2011 04:24 PM |
Jim Bradshaw's 5 Step Approach to learning the Matchup | RichieP | Hat Check - How Can We Help You? | 1 | 05-25-2009 09:52 AM |