PRX 9th 3.2.13

[For The Lead]

I haven't posted anything for a while, but I just couldn't help myself when this race occurred. First a reminder of just how I go about picking lines.

1 - the last line is the line UNLESS there is a GOOD reason to go back a line.
Now I understand that some of us my have reasons to go back a line that others do not have, but the Paceline Manual is a good place to start learning.

2 - what are some GOOD REASONS?
a - wrong distance
b - wrong surface
c - perhaps...off track?
d - perhaps, as I do, race is too old, in which case line selection ends right there. If the last line is too old, certainly the rest of the lines are too old as well.

Ok, so first you have to have a last line that is on the same or similar surface and at the same or similar distance. If that qualifies, then the horse must have run 1st, 2nd or 3rd...OR... been first or second at the first and/or second calls, even if it fades in the stretch...OR...must have made a good middle move (from first call to the second call) to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call even if it fades in the stretch.

Finally, I use no horse that has not run in the last 90 days and I use no line that is more than 90 days old.




Ok, I'm going to post and comment on each horse.

the #1 horse....let's start with, the horse is 2 for 37 lifetime. No matter what, do you really want to bet your money on a horse that just can't win? On top of that, there are 7 races in the PP's that are 554 days old or older. Obviously, this guys got some physical problems. Its' last line was a route race, which does not qualify, and the horse ran 8th all the way around. Not very encouraging, is it? Line 2 is 116 days old. This horse is OUT.


the #2 horse is another with physical problems. There are 7 races in the PP's that are 366 days or older and just one race that is less than 90 days old. Both of the horses last two races are routes, which means they don't qualify for a line. Line 3 would qualify if it wasn't 140 days old. This horse is OUT.


the #3 horse has a lifetime record of 2 for 25, which isn't real encouraging, however, it's last line was a route on an off track, so we can dismiss that race and go back a race. The line 2 back is just 41 days old, was run on today's track, on today's surface, at today's distance and the horse won the race. This horse will be the first contender off of line 2.

the #4 horse is another horse with a terrible lifetime record having won just 2 races from 37 starts. Like I asked about the #1 horse, do you really want to bet your hard earned money on a horse that doesn't want or know how to win? There is certainly not anything in its' last three races to encourage me to go back to line 4 and use that line. This horse is OUT.

[For The Lead]

the #5 horse has a big red caution flag. It was claimed at AQU for $15,000 and now it is running right back for $7,500. Would you buy a car for $15,000 and offer it for sale for $7,500 2 months later? Not only that, but look at the horses last three races. I don't see anything that gets me excited. Sure, the 3rd line back the horse lost by only 1.1 lengths, but how about the races in line 1 and line 2? What would make you think this horse would run back to that line 3 race, even if the race did qualify? And by the way, its' lifetime record of 2 for 21 isn't exactly setting the world on fire. Nope, this horse is OUT.


the #6 horse is pretty straight forward. It doesn't have a real good lifetime record at 2 for 23. Its' last 3 races are horrible. There is no reason to go back to line 4 for a good line. What would make you think the horse is prepared to run back to that line? And the big class drop is also suspect. This horse is OUT.


the #7 horse has 3 routes in its' last 5 races and the two sprint race aren't very encouraging. Its' lifetime record of 2 for 20 isn't real exciting either. There is no way I would go back 145 days to line 6 for a line. I will ask again, what makes you think this horse is ready to run back to that line based on its' recent performance?? This horse is OUT.


the #8 horse has the best lifetime record we have seen so far at 2 for 10. Unlike some of the other horses in this race, this guy doesn't appear to have "health issues". All ten lifetime races are showing. The oldest race is 216 days old. If you just average the time between races, this horse is racing every 21 days, ON AVERAGE. The thing to note here is this. This horses first 7 races were all at 6f, 6.5f or 7f and mostly 7f, just like today's race. I look at the route race as a "training" race or, perhaps, a "let's see what he can do" race. Then it was right back to a 6f race where it race second. At the outset I mentioned "GOOD REASONS" to go back a line, so I will ask this. Why was this horse in a 5f race last time out? This horse demonstrates that it prefers the longer sprint races. Was this a "training race"? I took it that way, just like the route race. This horse is a contender off of line 2 from just 46 days ago.

[point618]

Thanks for this insight ,i analyze things much the same. Now i do find myself going back to far to force a paceline,thinking this horse is due.Now there better be a good reason or its getting booted. I like your 90 day rule also , but if a horse has workouts do you use a greater than 90 day line?

[For The Lead]

the #9 horse couldn't be more straight forward. Every race in its' PP's are route races, so there is not a line. The horse has a ML of 20/1 and I always eliminate those. This horse is OUT.


the #10 horse is another like the #9 horse. every race in its' PP's is a route race, so there is not line. This horse is OUT.


the #11 horse has the best lifetime record with 2 wins from just 7 races, however, this horse, recently, is not the same horse it was initially. Like a few of the other horses in this race, this guy has physical issues. I mean, look at the last race in its' PP's, it's 943 days old. That's almost THREE YEARS! After the first three races, it was off for 474 days and came back on a winning note, but then it was off for 122 days and has not returned to the form it once showed. This horse is OUT.


And now the results. Races don't always turn out this way, but they do frequently enough to make them worthwhile finding. If you are not handicapping races in the fashion shown above, perhaps it is time to make a change. There is more to handicapping than checking off a box that indicates what line to use and go merrily along your way. The most effective way to find contenders is to READ THE PP's FOR EACH HORSE.

[atlasaxis]

FTL, just wondering why you choose an off track line for the 8? I use the Taulbot pace calc allowing it to pick the paceline according to my settings. It chose line 1 for the 8 and ended up making the 8 the top choice for this race.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by atlasaxis

FTL, just wondering why you choose an off track line for the 8? I use the Taulbot pace calc allowing it to pick the paceline according to my settings. It chose line 1 for the 8 and ended up making the 8 the top choice for this race.

I have laid out my contender and line selection methods many times on this board and did it again here at the outset of the post as a reminder.

If you read it again, you will get the answer to one of your questions, the reason I did not use line one. Beside the fact that line one is an "ugly" line, it is not at the preferred distance for this horse. I don't use those kind of lines. If the horse didn't show some sign of life in a race, I don't user it. If you read the beginning of my post you will see what those "signs of life" are.

As to the #8 being the "top choice". I assume you mean "the fastest horse based on final time". I'm not trying to find the fastest horse based on final time. I'm trying to "look" at the race in advance of the running of the race, or "how" the race will play out.

As you are aware, I'm sure, the "fastest final time horse" does NOT always win. The "teaching" thread has several examples of winners that showed they were anything but the fastest final time horse in the race. Sometimes they are the horse with the slowest final time of the contenders, but the fastest at the first call and that is all that horse needed to dominant the race and BECOME the horse with the fastest final time...TODAY!

As to the reason for using the "off track" line, The horse shows a win on an off track, so the off track doesn't bother me. The times on that "off track" are not excessively slow. In fact, they are faster than some of the "fast track" times, so why not use it? It is the most recent "GOOD LINE" at a similar distance and surface after eliminating the last line for the reason mentioned in my post.

And finally, if you noticed, I only had 2 contenders. Does it really matter if the #8 horse was the "top" choice or the "bottom" choice? For two horse bettors it was one of the only two horses to bet.

[JIMBOB1002]

Thanks for the post FTL. These are always very helpful. Jim

[Bill V.]

Thank You FTL

This horse fits something that I have been following.
One of the many lessons I got from this race is the 10
races in 210 days, This horse has been running consistently
so it looks fit.
I only see two breaks in its ten race, 1 after the claim at CRC, then the
move up north to Parx, 53 days The other is after the plus race line 2.
This is the pattern of a short "freshening" of 33 days 4-5 weeks
How did R.Moya and son handle the return of the fresh horse ?
The put it at 5.0 this time but also over its condition. into a NW3L
race at 5.0 furlongs.
It appears that they did not push the horse it about the same position
and its EPR and FFR were close to even.

anyway This looks like the kind of fresh horse that is mentioned in
Pace Makes The Race and how by using the horses past performance
record we can see what a trainer is doing with our horse.

From Pace Makes The Race

Selecting Pacelines chapter 14 pg 79


Layoffs and layoff patterns are by far the most complex and , in my opinion ,
the most profitable patterns in all of thoroughbred handicapping.
First, let me define a layoff as a period of thirty days or more between races.
There are long layoffs and short layoffs. Tom Brohamer, In Modern Pace
Handicapping, calls these short periods "freshening"
The first thing that I like to do is to note if there is a layoff somewhere in
the horses last three or four pace lines. If the last race was the race that
"put the horse in the barn" for a period of thirty or more days, we must answer
this question: how will the horse run after a layoff ? The answer is never certain,
and no one, not the owner, not the trainer, not the exercise rider, knows as a
matter of certainty how the horse will react to the layoff. They will make educated guesses based on the horse's fettle. We will make educated guesses based on the horses past performance
In my experience, the best indication that a horse will be able to run well after a layoff is that it has done so successfully in the past or at least within the last ten races [shown]

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Thank You FTL

This horse fits something that I have been following.
One of the many lessons I got from this race is the 10
races in 210 days, This horse has been running consistently
so it looks fit.
I only see two breaks in its ten race, 1 after the claim at CRC, then the
move up north to Parx, 53 days The other is after the plus race line 2.
This is the pattern of a short "freshening" of 33 days 4-5 weeks
How did R.Moya and son handle the return of the fresh horse ?
The put it at 5.0 this time but also over its condition. into a NW3L
race at 5.0 furlongs.
It appears that they did not push the horse it about the same position
and its EPR and FFR were close to even.

anyway This looks like the kind of fresh horse that is mentioned in
Pace Makes The Race and how by using the horses past performance
record we can see what a trainer is doing with our horse.

From Pace Makes The Race

Selecting Pacelines chapter 14 pg 79


Layoffs and layoff patterns are by far the most complex and , in my opinion ,
the most profitable patterns in all of thoroughbred handicapping.
First, let me define a layoff as a period of thirty days or more between races.
There are long layoffs and short layoffs. Tom Brohamer, In Modern Pace
Handicapping, calls these short periods "freshening"
The first thing that I like to do is to note if there is a layoff somewhere in
the horses last three or four pace lines. If the last race was the race that
"put the horse in the barn" for a period of thirty or more days, we must answer
this question: how will the horse run after a layoff ? The answer is never certain,
and no one, not the owner, not the trainer, not the exercise rider, knows as a
matter of certainty how the horse will react to the layoff. They will make educated guesses based on the horse's fettle. We will make educated guesses based on the horses past performance
In my experience, the best indication that a horse will be able to run well after a layoff is that it has done so successfully in the past or at least within the last ten races [shown] Attachment 33786

Bill,

I just want to make one correction to what you said.
In the horses last race it was actually not over its' condition.
In its' race 2 back where it shows the horse ran 2nd, the winner was "DQ'd", so this horse was awarded the win, giving it 2 lifetime wins, therefore the last race against NW3L is exactly where it should have been placed. It was just the wrong distance.
Here's the chart of the race 2 back.