Balancing Position calls with Beaten Lengths

[VoodooFan]

Hey Mr. Bradshaw, In general, can you give an example of how and/or when to take away the position call/beaten lenghts for horses gaining or backing up? For example, if a horse's past performance shows at the 1st call he was 5th-3 lengths off at a 22, and TODAY'S 1st call projects to be a 22.2, whats his NEW position and lengths? Is it 5th-1 length length, 3rd-3 lengths lengths, 3rd-1 length, or 3rd-3 lengths ? Thanks for contributing to this forum.

[THE HAT]

I will try to answer this the best I can without an example:
If today’s pace is 22.2 the horse that is 5th has the chance to gain 2 positions, which would change his position to
3rd . In all probability his beaten lengths would still remain one length, or less.
Now, can the horse make a move on the second call and the stretch call? If the second call is equal the horse
could possibly move up and move ahead of the leader at the stretch.
It is difficult to give a complete analysis without an example.

The Hat

[VoodooFan]

I think I understand. You and Doc taught horses are creatures of habit. Are you saying,in general, depending on the horse and his past performance , horses running style and when and where he likes to make a move, with the type of fractions he can move against, some horses LENGTHS will "definately" improve, while other horses will not improve that much? Like some Late, Sustained or Sustained Pressers horses, whose position might improve, but still like to stay back, and may even back up if they get too close? Or like RichieP's recent example of "suck" horses, horses that just run back no matter what the pace? If a horse always likes to run 3rd, does the beaten lengths behind only tell how vigorously he makes his move, fractions he can move against?

[THE HAT]

A horse feels comfortable in a certain position. Always look and find the position where a horse does his best.
The horse in the above example, has two horses ahead of him and beaten lengths to make up, but he has two
units of energy left. It will cost him units of energy to pass one horse and one unit of energy to catch the lead
horse. Unless, the second calls of the two horses in front are slower, then he can make a move and pass both
horses. Remember, it takes one unit of energy to gain position and one unit of energy to gain beaten lengths
There is always a danger of other horses that have gained positions passing all three.

Richie is on of my best students and what he says does apply, we have spent hours on the phone and we have gone
over many races Richie’s posts in this area is something we have discussed and is a good tool in learn The Match Up.

The Hat

[VoodooFan]

The relationship between a horses position call and lengths behind seems to be a very deep part of the MatchUp and key to Pace Anaylisis of the horse, which gets me in trouble.....what position/pace does a horse do his best or how he likes to win in the past vs what shape he's in TODAY vs what he's facing today. Hope ya keep teachin Richie....he's a very good MatchUp tutor...........wonder what's "his" hat size........??? Any approximate date or month the MatchUp book is ready? Thanks again

[RichieP]

Here are the pp's from a race yesterday at Belmont. The Hat will take it from there.

Rich

here are the race conditions and the 1 horse

[RichieP]

The 1a

[RichieP]

the 2

[RichieP]

the 3 was scratched. Here is the 4 horse

[RichieP]

the 5