FTL's teachings as they relate to Handicap races - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 10-26-2020, 09:15 PM

Earlier this year we lost a great contributor, FTL. One of his areas of expertise was handicapping "Handicap" races. On this subject he wrote:

"Before I go on, I understand that “weight” plays no part in the methodology, neither does weight play any part in my own day to day handicapping, however, weight does play a part in handicap races at any level.

Let’s start with the 3 year old triple crown races. They are all run on the basis of “weight for age”, which means three year olds all carry 126 pounds. By contrast, in the handicap triple crown races, the racing secretary assigns the weight to be carried by each horse. The best horses in the racing secretary’s opinion carry the most weight. Those horses that the racing secretary considers lesser horses carry less weight. It is possible to see one horse carrying 140 pounds and another horse carrying 110 pounds, in the same race. So what does all this mean?

The winner of a handicap race, at any level, generally comes from one of the top three high weighted horses. As with everything else in horse racing, nothing is 100%, however this little piece of information is a good starting point in handicap races."

...

"...the ideal situation is where there are 3 clear cut top weighted horses, possibly 4. In this race there were 2 horses that shared the top weight...3 horses that shared the second top weight ...and 1 horse that came in with the third top weight."

Last Saturday Belmont race three such races - 6-7-10. Race 6 top weights were 2-6-7 and the race was won by the 6 with the 7 second. $10.40 and $1exacta $24.20. Field of 7

Race 7 high weights were 1-3-6-7 with the winning combo 1-6, $12.40 to win and a #1, $20.10 $1 exacta. The DD paid $39.00 for a $1 bet. Field of 6

Race 10 high weights were 2-3-5-7 with the finish 2-5-7-3, winning bet paid $9.40 and $1 exacta $23.80. The trifecta paid $61.25. Field of 7

FTR advocated starting your handicapping with the high weights, with hopefully no more than 4 horses. Worked pretty well last weekend.

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10-26-2020, 09:15 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	FTL's teachings as they relate to Handicap races Earlier this year we lost a great contributor, FTL. One of his areas of expertise was handicapping "Handicap" races. On this subject he wrote: "Before I go on, I understand that “weight” plays no part in the methodology, neither does weight play any part in my own day to day handicapping, however, weight does play a part in handicap races at any level. Let’s start with the 3 year old triple crown races. They are all run on the basis of “weight for age”, which means three year olds all carry 126 pounds. By contrast, in the handicap triple crown races, the racing secretary assigns the weight to be carried by each horse. The best horses in the racing secretary’s opinion carry the most weight. Those horses that the racing secretary considers lesser horses carry less weight. It is possible to see one horse carrying 140 pounds and another horse carrying 110 pounds, in the same race. So what does all this mean? The winner of a handicap race, at any level, generally comes from one of the top three high weighted horses. As with everything else in horse racing, nothing is 100%, however this little piece of information is a good starting point in handicap races." ... "...the ideal situation is where there are 3 clear cut top weighted horses, possibly 4. In this race there were 2 horses that shared the top weight...3 horses that shared the second top weight ...and 1 horse that came in with the third top weight." Last Saturday Belmont race three such races - 6-7-10. Race 6 top weights were 2-6-7 and the race was won by the 6 with the 7 second. $10.40 and $1exacta $24.20. Field of 7 Race 7 high weights were 1-3-6-7 with the winning combo 1-6, $12.40 to win and a #1, $20.10 $1 exacta. The DD paid $39.00 for a $1 bet. Field of 6 Race 10 high weights were 2-3-5-7 with the finish 2-5-7-3, winning bet paid $9.40 and $1 exacta $23.80. The trifecta paid $61.25. Field of 7 FTR advocated starting your handicapping with the high weights, with hopefully no more than 4 horses. Worked pretty well last weekend.