2/25- 8f Route at Sunland / mix of horses

[RichieP]

Here is Saturday's 9th at Sunland - 8f two turn route

Interesting mix of runners when I scrolled - earlies, pressers, closers, sprinters etc

Very best of luck/skill to those who jump in and a THANK YOU in advance to folks who take the time to lay out in some detail their thought processes/ procedures

[RichieP]

.,/

[Bill Lyster]

Here goes:
there are 3 sprinters here the 3-4-7, so I will match them first and see what happens.

The 3 and 7 look pretty fast from a tandem race and extending the 1:16.6 by 6.4 seconds per half furlong x 3 half furlongs = 135.8. Add a couple of ticks for the second turn and see about 136.2 as an equivalent mile time. This eliminates the 4.

It does not look like the sprinters actually stretch out at this rate at SUN, but note that the 4 ran a mile in 137.0 off a 112.1 6 furlong time. Off the 7's last race you might expect something a little over 110, so the 3 and 7 should have a fairly large advantage over the routers if we can find them.

I have limited experience with Zia Park times but I seem to remember that Zia runs pretty fast, so I will look to SUN times only. (Admitted possible hole in this analysis, so far).

[Bill Lyster]

The 1 and the 2 appear to be the only routers that have run reasonably against 111 and change 6 furlong times, with the 1 being better.

Line 3 for the 1 might even be a little better. The 1 has pressed from 3rd and 4th and should let the sprinters stretch out. Big APV helps this one a lot.

My pick is the 1 boxed with the 7 and 3 in the 2nd hole. Could be nice price if the ML holds as stated.

Good luck,

Bill

[Capcondo]

This race geatures two early sprinters (3,7) and an early router (1). Even tough the 1 did not have the lead in the last race, I am going to use that line instead of projecting a route time from the sprinters. The pace is projected at 23.9 47.6 1:11.2 1:37.6.

Here we go:

1 Early. Last line is used. Has an OTE win from the 4th position at the first call 10 races back. Contender.
2. Slow Out
3. Sprint to route off las line. Contender.
4. Last 3 lines horse is way back. Out.
5. Sustained. Runs from the 6th position. Too deep. Out.
6. Last 4 lines slow. Previous lines reflect two year layoff. OUT.
7. Early sprint to route. Contender.
8. Late. 6,7, and 8th position at first call. Out.
9. Slow.

The 3 and 7 are in tandem running close to a 22.1 44.3 pace in a sprint last time out. It will go faster than the projected pace. The 1 who ran a 23.9 to the first call should be able to sit 3rd or 4th and close.

The 1 is my choice.

Tim

[raceman5]

3-7


Bob

[SilentRun]

Looking at the race from RDSS...............My top pick is the #1....best Total Energy, Total Speed and highest Composite Speed Rating (from latest RDSS 2.0). My second choice is the 7 also good TE and TS. The paceline for the 7 is from a sprint but it has won several times at 8F in the past. I am not comfortable with the 3 horse as all the lines were sprints and I don't see that it ever won at today's distance. I would bet the 1 to win/place even though I won't be home to watch the race.

(opps I uploaded the main panel last )

Ernie

[PeteC]

I’m looking for this race to run OTE. I see #7 as the pace setter. It won a route against a 24.1 48.5, but should get pushed faster early today by the 3 and the 4. I looked for OTE runners against a mid-47 half mile and narrowed it down to the 1,2 and 5…

#1 ran against the fastest route pace last time, holding position 1c-2c, so I went back to another line. I used line 7…
23.9 47.6 112.4 138.6 4-3-2-2

#2 comes off of a good race. I used line 9 as the power line.
23.8 47.6 112.2 138.4 3-3-1-2

#5 has also run well against today’s pace. I focused on line 7..
23.3 47.5 112.5 143.8 6-6-1-1

#1 and #2 run closer to the pace and are my picks to win.

[Charlie D]

Pace - 48 - 72.2

OTE

#1

[mikesal57]

agree with the #1...but wont get 5-1