22Apr Hol Card "Good Friday"

[seattlesnake]

Heres a look at the Hollywood Race Card for Fri. NIte...

[seattlesnake]

cont...








Good Luck Tonite...

[mikesal57]

Jess...would you know why the #3 in race 1 was eliminated as a early contender?

[seattlesnake]

That highlight on #5 is sumthing that Ted can probably address or adjust.

but base on figs shown.. #3 is the choice over the #5 as the 2nd E1 horse...

[mikesal57]

I'm not positive about this , but I believe that this is how it goes for race #1

assuming all the calculations and numbers are correct in the charts
determining the "early horses"is that you use the highest low for the pace of race
then you compare it to the high numbers of the early horses to see if it is eliminated,
which in this race is 70.....the 2,3,5 are in....
next you use the 2 best highs to determine the contenders...unless there is a condition that Dave calls the 5 pt rule.....The 5pt rule states that if there is more than a 5 pt difference in the % early between horses then you use the better % horse and don't eliminate it..

In this case the 3 has a 13 pt advantage over the 2 .....the 3 stays in
....the 2 has a 5 pt advantage over the 5 and he stays in
It looks like RDSS is going straight to the highs and not considering the 5 pt rule..

Also the red and blue numbers seem out of wack..
Shouldnt E1 and E2 be red 1-2...and L1 & L2 be blue 1-2 ?????

With this race example the 3 should have been the E1 and not be eliminated

mike

[gl45]

Mike,
a five horse field shouldn't be considered, but as an example, it seems you're correct in your assumption. Also, you must be aware from what races the high speed ratings are coming from, and Dave didn't address the issue for that matter.
For example,the rating of 70 - 73 of Quite An Honour could have been extrapolated from different surface or different distances, which makes the ratings values a bit questionable. It is a tool that if tweaked properly will produce very good results.
Have great success at the race.
G

[mikesal57]

thx Pino..understood

[mikesal57]

Dave made it simple that he doesn't use the highest HIGH or the lowest LOW in his approach which i guess evens out what your talking about.
Tracks that you play, maybe you can do a little tweaking cause they pretty much run consistently at their right distance and surface but for higher end tracks the window shrinks for useable races and can cause erratic results if you try to tweak em.

[gl45]

Mike,
did you watch Dave new pace follow up video? If you didn't, following is an example of the adjustment.

1. If any of the bad" races are off tracks, just throw them out! In other words, if you have 10 pacelines, you would be looking at the 4 worst lines. If any of them are bad, toss them out and move to the next ones.
2. Do a re-count on the number of races you have.
Example:

1)78
2)80 off
3)81 off
4)84
5)93
6)95 off
7)99
8)102
9)105 off
10)108
Was: 84-102

Becomes:
1)78
---
---
2)84
3)93
4)95 off
5)99
6)102
7)105 off
8)108
93-105

[mikesal57]

now comes your debate......

you throw out line 2 & 3......but you keep his highs on off track

see what I'm getting at?

either way RDSS 2 doesnt do this "tweaking"

maybe Ted can make it adjustable???