Use of lines with large variants

[Bill Lyster]

Tim (Lt) mentioned this recently and also perhaps Mitch did as well (that is, tracks that seal their surfaces before big races in order to induce fast times), but I found my original Derby contenders using their best race at or near 9 furlongs without regard for how large or small the track variant was. As a result I had horses with -22 variants running their best ever races that when compared to near zero variants we not near as good.

This morning (5/3) I evaluated all the contenders using lines that were closer to a zero or near zero variant, meaning, I think, that it was what a horse might do on a normal track surface that was not souped up for a big race.

This is what I got:




This is something that after the first Webinar I have been experimenting with and it has shown really good results in just the last 10-12 days of handicapping any surface, any location. So I am looking NOT to compare horses with a -22 line against a horse whose best is from a +5 line, if at all possible.

Note that Essential had running lines from -12, -17, +19 and -2 track variants and that Higly Motivated had lines from -12, -17, +6 tracks. If you use what I consider to be the more "normal" surfaces you get the winner in the top 4, with 3 of the 4 Mathie factors. Also note how lowly the 14 and 17 rate on the supplemental factors to the right and the ranking of their POR races.

So thanks to RMath, LT and MITCH in helping understand this more clearly.

[Mitch44]

Bill;

Seal tracks only apply to off tracks either sloppy or muddy. For big race days the track maintenance crew tend to speed up tracks. They love new records etc. This is done for example by how deep they harrow or change the cushion. They can loosen it and slow it or pack it down and speed it up. Watering can also effect the speed of the track depending on the composition of the track.

I would not make the variant the priority for picking a pace line. That can be disastrous overall and will hurt more than help you.

A variant is only unusual or abnormal and out of line if it is way above the settings of +15 or way below -15. Or you could make it a nice even number of - 16 & +16. Essentially use the default settings.

If you have one outside those limits than see if the horse has another qualified line. Many horses can be gotten using more that one line and it'll still be in the top 3 of read outs.

There are times when there isn't another available line, particularity with young 3 year old's. As "The Hat" Bradshaw would say; "You must use what you have." I.e. in a turf race its ideal that all have turf lines but that is just an unrealistic wishful thinking.

Many under estimate the importance of distance in a race. In the example you give of -17,-19 and +22 are small differences and with a young 3 yr. old all it has. To me the distance of a race at 9F is of more importance, BTY distance takes priority over surface also. So in one case a +22 could be out of line with the others but in another race it may not. Even if out of line it may be used if that all the horse has. What I'm saying is that its not a firm rule but a situational thing. It comes from experience and some other knowledge.

As in football when in the red zone situation, you have to know what play to call, or even when not to kick a field goal on 4th down. Situation has much to do with it. In this situation +22 wouldn't concern me as the distance is more important with 3 year old's in the Ky. Derby. A 9F line is more important and takes priority.

Putting this in context,don't go changing every line above or below 15, that can be a costly mistake or become troublesome. Know when to zig and when to zag based on the situation is the key.

Another context; the auto pace line selection within the RDSS program has advanced novice players and users tremendously. How accurate is it? I would say its at least 90% accurate. However I still review every horses pace line to see if I concur and do change some I disagree with. This gives me some winners others just don't get. It doesn't take that long to verify lines for concurrence. The same with variants I always review them, I may change a line or may not depending on what's in the horse's PP's.

This isn't a hard and fast rule on variants, as Sartin said;"There are no rules in horseracing, just guidelines." If I had to put a strict guideline on it an abnormal variant would be one that + 25 and above or -25 and below. But I prefer to place it more in context by comparing it to the norm of the contenders or horses its running against because that's the ultimate adjustment for accuracy. Its a "Monkey" thing that has served me well for a more accurate variant and ratings, if the horse has another acceptable line I'll change and if not I live with it.

Your question is a very good one Bill, thanks for asking and I hope this gives more clarity to you and others to improve your bottom line.

Mitch44

[Bill Lyster]

Mitch,

Thanks for all that. What I showed was not how I did the race, because I did use the best lines at or near 9f, but only one in my top 5 hit the board - and in any event, it was just one race! In the eleven races at CD that I played Saturday I had 8 winners in my top 3 (sometimes 4), so I think I have a plan that works going forward.

From a Hat Marathon perspective the winner ran one of the best preps, just off the lead and one of the best mile times in the race, it just did not adjust to get the horse in the final mix.

There was a lot of banging around which hurt a couple of horses and maybe the 1 could benefit most by not drawing the rail at Pimlico if they decide to go there.

In my handicapping I am trying to use today's distance whenever possible, as long as its not an off track, lifetime best for 5 YO and up, and trying to keep the race distance within a half furlong whenever possible. Previously, I have been victimized by the combination of sloppy tracks and distances outside of .5 length of todays race.

Many thanks for the time to explain all of this.

[Mitch44]

A horse can be a world beater at 9F and than stop on a dime at 10F. That is because at some point all horses become gutted or in realty its because of the deceleration factor taking effect at all distances, not just 9F but at every distance..

Some may stop on a dime or decelerate gradually. The better ones decelerate gradually. A horse can also finish in the money and appear to be at a favorable distance but never win at that distance. These types need to cut back to find their best distance.

If Sartin were alive today, I'm sure I could convince him to change his guidelines from 1 F to 1/2 F for picking of pace lines. Note: many times you have to use 1F as no 1/2 F line exists. Sartin however was no dummy, his guidelines were state of the art at that time. Today in racing there are more races at 1l2 F that in his era., more 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 9.5 races etc. Surely he would adapt.

Mitch44

[Bill Lyster]

I whole-heartedly agree with the within 1/2 furlong statement. In many cases today you can look at a 6 f race and then just look at the total energy and TPR info for the fast track races at 6 furlongs and see that unless there was a big excuse, the horse runs unbelievably close to the same total energy and EPR/LPR, but different than it runs at 5.5, 6.5, 7.0 furlongs. Of course the line should not be lifetime best that has never been backed up by other races. It doesn't sound like a lot of difference but I think it is. So much so that if the most representative line is deep in the PPs I'll use it if I can verify that its how the horse runs that distance of race - %med, final time, total energy, etc.

[Old Arkie Gal]

Informative and very helpful.
Pat

[Bill Lyster]

Just for fun, three examples from today's 6th at PRX

notice how the adjusted speed ratings decline every time she runs 7F - there were no trouble line associated with these races. The 2 won todays race using a 72 SR





Mad Mary is better at 6 and 6.5, but even the 6.5 shows a little better adjusted speed rating than 7 furlongs. Not a top three finish





Princess Mikayah shows that 7 furlongs is not wanted, could be better at 6.5 or 6.0. I used line 8. Not a top 3 finish.





These kinds of situations routinely happen. Look for them and eliminate false favorites.

[Mitch44]

I also don't limit myself to the last 3 lines Bill, particularity if it ran at the wrong distance or surface. Once on here I was asked which line I would use for a horse and I chose L 9 and the horse won. L1 or 2 (I forgot which one) got the horses in the top 3 but L 9 placed it on top.

Sometimes you have to predict what a horse is about to do, based on form cycles, layoffs, improvements, trainers intention etc..

Sure you can do fairly good and perhaps better than previously with RDSS on auto.

Just like it's an art to picking winners there an art to picking Pace Lines. But pace lines are less complicated and has far less variables. Pace lines are like assembling a simple puzzle of 500 pieces whereas winners are a puzzle of 5,000 pieces.

Contenders and pace lines are the initial and easy pieces and if you get a good start the bigger puzzle becomes easier. You have to break out of the gate correctly to get yourself in position to win.

Speaking of out of the gate, I played a NTL horses in a contest race that broke in the air and got all tangled up to be last. The horse didn't go 50 yards and I knew he was toast. Also had 4 jockey's fall off the last couple of weeks, rumor has it "The Monkey" didn't like the way they were running and knocked them off.

Point is get the correct contenders and pace lines and you'll be in a position to solve the big puzzle to become a winner.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Every horse has a best distance and surface. With younger horses such as 3 yr. old's it may not be apparent yet.

We can analyze a horse impartially and know more that the trainer or owner does about a horse. The tools available within RDSS gives us many insights and clues to the puzzle. Their just not used.

Mitch44

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

I also don't limit myself to the last 3 lines Bill, particularity if it ran at the wrong distance or surface. Once on here I was asked which line I would use for a horse and I chose L 9 and the horse won. L1 or 2 (I forgot which one) got the horses in the top 3 but L 9 placed it on top.

Sometimes you have to predict what a horse is about to do, based on form cycles, layoffs, improvements, trainers intention etc..

Sure you can do fairly good and perhaps better than previously with RDSS on auto.

Just like it's an art to picking winners there an art to picking Pace Lines. But pace lines are less complicated and has far less variables. Pace lines are like assembling a simple puzzle of 500 pieces whereas winners are a puzzle of 5,000 pieces.

Contenders and pace lines are the initial and easy pieces and if you get a good start the bigger puzzle becomes easier. You have to break out of the gate correctly to get yourself in position to win.

Speaking of out of the gate, I played a NTL horses in a contest race that broke in the air and got all tangled up to be last. The horse didn't go 50 yards and I knew he was toast. Also had 4 jockey's fall off the last couple of weeks, rumor has it "The Monkey" didn't like the way they were running and knocked them off.

Point is get the correct contenders and pace lines and you'll be in a position to solve the big puzzle to become a winner.

Mitch44

Great stuff Mitch!!

Great forethought in approaching the Derby and going thru the Derby prep races leading to the Big Dance.

Tough game with a lot of zigs and zags....no pun intended..