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Old 10-13-2018, 11:25 PM   #1
navyvet1994
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Join Date: Aug 2018
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a difficult question for me.

I see 7f and 8f races and wonder. Would you use a 7f or 8f as a line? Looking at FTL readings it's brought up that you can allow a one furlong shift in a line. But &f is a sprint and 8F is a route. Do any of you recommend that?
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Old 10-14-2018, 04:23 AM   #2
For The Lead
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Originally Posted by navyvet1994 View Post
I see 7f and 8f races and wonder. Would you use a 7f or 8f as a line? Looking at FTL readings it's brought up that you can allow a one furlong shift in a line. But &f is a sprint and 8F is a route. Do any of you recommend that?
Consider this.

A 7f race starts from a chute on the backstretch. The horses run almost a half mile down the backstretch straightaway to the first turn. They run around one turn to the finish.
Most one mile oval tracks start their 8f races in the front stretch near the first turn. The horses run around a turn in the opening quarter of a mile (rather than on a straightaway) and then down the back stretch for another quarter of a mile before reaching a half mile then around a second turn to the finish.
These are hardly comparable distances as far as where the horses are running on the track.
There are a few tracks that run an 8f race out of a chute on the backstretch. Belmont and Arlington Park are just two of the very few tracks that do this. Now, consider how much of that 8f race is run on a straightaway. Compare that to how far horses run on a straightaway in a 7f race.

Further;
In a 7f race the commonly used times are at the quarter mile mark, the half mile mark and the finish.
In an 8f race the commonly used times are the half mile mark, the three quarter mile mark and the finish.
Again, hardly comparably, especially when where the horses are on the track is taken into consideration.

There are those who will contend that adjustments can be made. Given the information above, I am not in that camp. Although there is only one eight of a mile difference between them 7f is a sprint and 8f is a route.
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Old 10-14-2018, 11:55 AM   #3
Mitch44
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navyvet1994;


It is Sartin who says to stay within 1 furlong and it has been his teaching going back to the 80's. Once you go more than a furlong( + or -) it effects how races are run. Generally the shorter the race the more speed is involved. E.g. put a 1 1/16 line into the program for a 1 1/4 or 1 3/16 race and that horse will most likely come up on top because 1/1/16 races are run faster, but can it carry that speed that extra distance? Most likely not. A horse going from a 1 1/16 to 7F will be facing a much stiffer pace. Can it keep up ?


Sartin; " its always safer to extract than to project" because the horse has proven what it can do, when projecting a sprinter to a route your dealing with an unknown while extracting a router to a sprint it early speed potential has been demonstrated. Generally few routers can sprint but it does happen.


Generally ballpark Sartin used 2/5 per call as a difference. I.e if a routers internal 6F time is 112:80 his projected 6 F time is 111.60 (minus 6/5th) If facing horses running 1:10 etc. its a toss as he's roughly slow by 8 lengths.This really is done within the program in a more refined and proficient manner than using fifths. Using fifths is just a down and dirty ,fast visual method that was used early by Sartin ,not as accurate as Sartin put in his programs but close and proven from over 50,000 races.


Races are carded at various distances because every horse has a best distance. A horse that can win at 6F can't win at 6.5 of the same class because of its best distance which is determined by its deceleration and where that deceleration takes place.

I have been interchanging 7F and 8F lines for years without a problem. I attempt to stay within 1/2 F but never more than 1 F because of the deceleration factor and a horses best distance. In many cases your forced to use what's there or consider it an unknown. The Bradshaw concept / rule of " you have to use what you have" frequently comes into play in regards to selecting lines.


With experience many of these issues solve themselves. Extractions and projections are frequently encountered and must be dealt with or pass those races. Just a typical
everyday occurrence. Its only a problem if you perceive it to be a problem.

Sticking with Sartin's guidelines for selecting pace lines which have been tested and proven from over 50,000 races will serve you well.

All races under 8F are considered sprints to include 7.5 F and anything over 8F is considered a route. However within those structures there is a huge difference between a 5.5 F line and a 7 F line or a 1 1/16 and a 1 3/8.


I'm from the camp that adjustments can be made and some I can just do in my head plus I use other Sartin stuff that has been proven over time. Even many sprinters can be projected and others tossed from the tools within the program.


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 10-14-2018 at 12:03 PM.
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Old 10-14-2018, 12:37 PM   #4
Jeebs
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Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
There are a few tracks that run an 8f race out of a chute on the backstretch. Belmont and Arlington Park are just two of the very few tracks that do this.
Gulfstream also cards one mile dirt races around one turn since they rebuilt that oval at the end of the 2004 season. Churchill Downs has the distinct oddity of being a one mile dirt oval, yet running their one mile dirt races out of a long chute due to the short run into the first turn there.

How do you treat one mile race lines from Ellis Park when comparing them to one mile races around two turns or one turn? I ask because Ellis has that vertical dogleg start unique in North American racing. Saratoga had something similar back in yesteryear. I would almost be inclined to not use an Ellis line and treat it as a non-comparable but perhaps I'm confusing the situation more than I need to.

Thanks!
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Old 10-14-2018, 02:17 PM   #5
Mitch44
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Hi Tim,

A couple of ways to handle this:


1. Ray Taulbot always deducted 7 points from the Speed Rating for tracks that run out of a chute or straight along the backstretch thus eliminating two turns. And tracks where 1 turn is eliminated subtract 3 points, such as in GP today and Sar of yesteryear.


2. The best way for a more accurate adjustment would be to use the 3 year best times to compare the two tracks you have in question.
This is much better than Taulbot's old ways that he used to develop variants.


The 3 year best time comparison would account for that dogleg you mention Tim along with other track differences such as banking etc. A much better mousetrap indeed.


Many may not know this but Bradshaw did make adjustments while doing the match up. This was discussed at a seminar and the advantage of going to a seminar. All part of his Voodoo Magic. He compared differences in tracks (to answer all the topics being discussed here) by using the speed rating to determine the track record. If a horse gets a SR of 80 finishing in 111.00 than the track record is 1:09.00. He than compared that to today's track record at the top of the PP's in the conditions of the race or doing the same procedure for the track where the majority of horses ran for a comparison. In fact by doing this its current and one does not have to wait till the end of the year for the 3 yr. best times to be updated. Matcher's should pay attention to this.

As I said all these adjustments are handled within the program. I only use some of this stuff when doing races on the fly. Trust the program.

Ted could elaborate more than I on the program as to how some of these things are handles, such as tract to track adjustments as tracks to vary which does effect time, along with adjustments for stretch outs and cutback horses.


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