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12-16-2009, 11:04 PM | #1 |
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Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
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Sam Houston Race 3 Thurs 12/17
OK...Show us some of your matching skills..
Here is a race thats going off around 7:52 thurs night It looks like most of these horses are from the same circuit I gave you a lot of time to look at it I didnt really look at it so ..go get em!! gl
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12-17-2009, 09:15 AM | #2 |
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Mike,
I will talk you through the way I do it step by step. Its a 7 Furlong Race. I will use a 7 furlong race wherever available in LAST 4 RACES. If the horse shows no 7 Furlong races, I will use best of last 4. The races I used for each horse were 1 Horse...2 back, the 7 Furlong Race 2 Horse...3 Back, no 7 Furlong, so used best of last 4 3 Horse...2 Back, No 7 Furlong is last 4, so used Best of last 4 4 Horse...4 Back, No 7 Furlong so used best of last 4 5 Horse...Last Race, No 7 Furlong so used best of Last 4 6 Horse...3 Back, No 7 Furlong, so used best of Last 4 7 Horse...3 Back, the 7 Furlong Race 8 Horse....Last Out, the 7 Furlong Race 9 Horse....2 Back, no 7 Furlong, so used best of last 4 10 Horse...4 Back, no 7 Furlong, so used best of last 4 11 Horse...3 Back, no 7 Furlong, and best of last 4 was a 5 furlong sprint, so used closest to todays settings. Here is the matching up of the horses using 2nd call and 3rd call. 1 Horse.....45....110.4....Lost 6 Lengths from 2nd call to finish 2 Horse.....46.3....112.1....Lost 3/4 of a length from 2nd call to finish 3 Horse.....48.3....114.1....Gained 5 lengths from 2nd call to finish 4 Horse.....48.3....113.2....Even from 2nd call to finish 5 Horse.....47.....112.4....Lost 1 length from 2nd call to finish 6 Horse.....46.3....112.1....Lost 2 lengths from 2nd call to finish 7 Horse.....46.1....112.2....Gained 5 lengths from 2nd call to finish 8 Horse.....45.1....110.2....Lost 4 lengths from 2nd call to finish 9 Horse.....47.....112.4....Lost 2 Lengths from 2nd call to finish 10 Horse...45.2....111.1....Lost 2 lengths from 2nd call to finish 11 Horse...46.3....112.1....Even From 2nd call to finish The 3-4-5-6-9 Seem to be to slow so are kicked out. These horses either lost lengths against a mediocre pace, or Gained a few lengths at a Slow pace. Leaves 1-2-7-8-10-11. The 2 and 11 Come from the same race. The 2 beat the 11 in that race, setting the pace, whereas the 11 sat off the pace, and just finished evenly. The 11 is eliminated. The 10 horse was 7 lenghts off in the selected race, and couldn't come forward at all. Has lost 2 tandem races to horses in todays field. 10 Eliminated. Down to 1-2-7-8 as the Top 4 contenders. I would say you could put these into your computer and crunch the numbers, but I will continue, as I do not use the software. I use the match-up for every race, so I will continue for those that wish to go further with the match-up not using the software. The 7 needs an open lead to win, and will not get it today. Eliminate. The 2 is a press horse against slower pace, and is stretching out. Eliminate. Leaves 1-8. 1 Horse.....45....110.4....Lost 6 Lengths from 2nd call to finish 8 Horse.....45.1....110.2....Lost 4 lengths from 2nd call to finish The pace's are roughly the same. The 8 actually faced faster pace, and lost less ground. The horse has actually WON against 111 pace. My Horse this race is the 8 Eternal Pursuit. Good Luck |
12-17-2009, 09:58 AM | #3 |
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Location: Staten Island, NY
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This is great!!
Thank you Justin for your analysis.... Interesting , that you used the latter part of the race for each horse JB never went past stretch calls...hmmmm I will look at it myself later mike
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12-17-2009, 10:47 AM | #4 |
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Excellent job Justin. So i take it, if this were a 6 fur race then u would look at 6fur races in last 4?
Bob What would u do if the last 4 are run on poly when todays surface is dirt? Would you go furthur down in the pp's for a dirt race? Last edited by raceman5; 12-17-2009 at 10:51 AM. Reason: poly |
12-17-2009, 11:12 AM | #5 |
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 154
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From what Jim did, he would look at the stretch calls to see how the race would set up and whether the horse would be in the horses best position to win. Jim was excellent at seeing the race's unfold.
Myself, I have seen many races being decided in the middle portion of the race. if a horse is close to a fast pace, the horse will probably be in the lead against slower horses. If a horse can close in fast fractions, imagine what the horse can do if the fractions are slowed down?!?! Raceman, that is exactly true. If the race was at 6 furlongs, you can go through the past 4 races. If the races were on a different surface you would indeed look lower to find a race atleast on the surface. If there is no races in the pp's that are at todays surface, then you will have to choose a race on the other surface. I hope I didnt make that too confusing! Jim was the best at what he did, and I am sure nobody could re-create what he did. |
12-17-2009, 12:55 PM | #6 |
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Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
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I see the 2, 5 and 7 all capable against 22.4 and 46.3 and all are on or near lead. Pace projection is 22.3-46.2 and nobody is better than 112.1 or 119 which makes them finish 7f in 125+.
The 6 can run this pace but gets caught in the early buzz. Race is OTE. The 8 has 3 races at 7f, can take lead in the mid 111's, runs from about 4th or 5th and should put these away for fun. The 1 has pressed and closed on some 111 and change routes so I like him best for place. |
12-17-2009, 05:46 PM | #7 |
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Location: Staten Island, NY
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OK lets do it..
first off I pick my contenders... A friend and member here has took a lot of his time to show me things that can better my approach to handicapping..one of his main points is that to pick a recent paceline where the horse shows some life... 2-6-7-8-10-11 tandem eliminations 6 lost to the 11 but had a excuse...leave in for now 7 lost to 2 horses in this race...out 10 lost to 2 horses in this race...out 11 lost to the 2 and the 2 is still in form..out left with 2-6-8 with the lack of speed in this race the 6 would have an easy time getting the lead and keep it going gl mike
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12-17-2009, 05:49 PM | #8 |
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Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
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Thanks for posting Justin. I didn't realize until after I posted that Mike was asking for your input and methodology. Nice, crisp analysis.
Bill |
12-17-2009, 07:05 PM | #9 |
Racing Form Only
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 33
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Have to bet the 8
Good race to pass - but if forced - would have to bet the 8
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12-17-2009, 09:17 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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Justin ..That was excellent...the 2 horses you've had came in 1st and 3rd
nice going and a very interesting post because I didnt use the stretch call at all..will give it a try!! Chime in anytime Bill..also a good call... Will do this again if you guys are game.. mike
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