contest race

[lone speed]

Let's see if those lines are ranked #1 or #2 Lot as this is a turf race as sustain fractions dominate.....

[Bill V.]

I need you to show me or tell me were you got the 61 from

I still am having trouble seeing a 61 DTV

Thanks
Bill

[lone speed]

Patrick.....

Upon further reviews of Mucho Mas Mucho pps, I am most interested in the 5th paceline back...I have no qualms about going for the power line as that line looks strong especially if there are some early speedballs to set some decent quick early fractions........last paceline is already strong since he closed on a fast 24 last fraction, so the horse is in shape after the layoff...but it s hard to evaluate that last paceline in todays matchup....10 and 12 furlongs races are hard to evaluate in Sartin' s programs......

Looking forward to your Rdss readouts with those pacelines included....sometimes, I have no problems entering two or even three pacelines for a contender that I want to evaluate...

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

I need you to show me or tell me were you got the 61 from

I still am having trouble seeing a 61 DTV

Thanks
Bill

Not surprised, look again at line 1 horse 10, the 2nd place horse in this.


Now look at the Net SR for the winner 115

[Bill V.]

Thanks Patrick

although I'm still mixed up.

Patrick I'm still confused as to what your either asking or teaching ?

Your showing the original paceline for horse 10
On Dec 15 2012 it ran at GP and the DTV for that race
according equibase/trackmaster was a DTV of 61

Then your showing the Adjusted PP line for horse 9
who ran on November 24 at CRC
On that day at that track the DTV was -3

what is your question ?
Thanks
Bill

[Rverge]

well here is my 1.2 cents on this race. watched the replay. the spilts are 46.99
110.5. the profile times and final times are slower. also notice the Bl's for the last 3-4 races and view #9s breaks far back from the field. watch the replay 9 is last or almost last won running in the middle of the track. fast pace and a clean trip set it up for the closer. it happens. i didn't have the horse, and not many others as viewed by the payout.
MLcookie
ps the profile times where 48.9 113.17 143.70

[Ted Craven]

Patrick, Bill, everyone,

I will look at this race and give my 1.2 cents as well I won't get time until tomorrow night though.

cheers,

Ted

[Hoof 11]

Here is my take on that race (GP-10). You would have had to step out of the box on this one, the methodology would never point to this outcome, in my opinion. Take this for what it’s worth, if you agree or disagree, that’s your prerogative.

9 – Mucho Mas Macho.

We have ten lines to judge this horse on what it has the ability to do, and the first thing i look at is the Total Energy Rating. At best he ran a 162.7 at this distance and surface, the 2,3,5,7 and 8, all had the ability to run a 165 to 167 at the same distance and surface, the question today is, are they in form to put up those numbers today? On the surface the 9 looked to be an early toss, but there are a few angles telling me not so fast. Let’s look at what the horse does after a lay-off (7th line back), he generally comes out and runs a 75 adjusted speed rating (just like his last start before today), the next start out he improves to a 78, albeit on dirt. So that tells me he will improve on his last start (line 1), and he will be in top form today. Is that enough to compete with days runners? The answer is NO. But there was a difference in his last start, they stretched him out to a mile and a half, something he had never done. It was the same conditions as today, and on the same surface, and he finished a very respectable second, only 1.8 lengths back.

Now we come to one of my favorite angles, The Cutback. He generally runs every 20 to 30 days, but they gave him 49 days off from his last start, and rightfully so, 12F will tear a strip out of you, BUT IT WILL ALSO CONDITION THE HORSE! After the well deserved break, they trained him and he put up some pretty pedestrian numbers breezing 4F on dirt, then they asked him to run a week before the race and he ran 5F in a minute flat, in hand on the same surface as today’s race. That tells me he had no adverse affects from his last start, and for a route horse, a minute flat is fast. I have seen this angle work time and time again, and it usually sets up the horse for a career best!

The track bias for the week leading up to today’s race favored horses coming off the pace, another positive for the 9, his PP’s are littered with late moves. He proved himself at this condition and RC in his last start, it just comes down to having the testicular fortitude to commit yourself to the angle.

Now let’s look at the horses that had recently won their last start, the 2-3-8-10. I give this angle a hard look, usually for horses underneath unless they can show me they have the ability to repeat. The 2-3-8 had put up big Total Energy numbers, and were obvious contenders for today’s race. The 2 had never run 3 races in a row, he needs the lay-off. The 3 (which i love), was very lightly raced this year, and was the obvious early horse, but he had a few question marks for me, track bias was against him, questionable form, shipped in that morning (which he had never done in the past), i would use him underneath at best. The 8, here is where it gets interesting, i like horses that put up big numbers 3 or 4 starts back, and they tend to cycle every 3 to 5 starts with a big effort. The 10 was the same way with one big difference, he had won his last start with other runners in that race coming back to win in their next start (exiting a key race).

I messed this race up along with a lot of other people, i have a bias toward the Woodbine runners and it left me with “blinkers on”. I looked at this race two ways, logically with the 5-2-3, and out in left field with the 9-10-11-1. Unfortunately i went with the logical selections and fell flat on my face, i at least should have used the 9 as a bomb as my third selection, but that’s what happens when you have 100 decisions to make in a race, you can’t always be right.

As a wise handicapper once told me, “things are a lot more obvious after the fact”.

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by Hoof 11

Here is my take on that race (GP-10). You would have had to step out of the box on this one, the methodology would never point to this outcome, in my opinion. Take this for what it’s worth, if you agree or disagree, that’s your prerogative.

9 – Mucho Mas Macho.

We have ten lines to judge this horse on what it has the ability to do, and the first thing i look at is the Total Energy Rating. At best he ran a 162.7 at this distance and surface, the 2,3,5,7 and 8, all had the ability to run a 165 to 167 at the same distance and surface, the question today is, are they in form to put up those numbers today? On the surface the 9 looked to be an early toss, but there are a few angles telling me not so fast. Let’s look at what the horse does after a lay-off (7th line back), he generally comes out and runs a 75 adjusted speed rating (just like his last start before today), the next start out he improves to a 78, albeit on dirt. So that tells me he will improve on his last start (line 1), and he will be in top form today. Is that enough to compete with days runners? The answer is NO. But there was a difference in his last start, they stretched him out to a mile and a half, something he had never done. It was the same conditions as today, and on the same surface, and he finished a very respectable second, only 1.8 lengths back.

Now we come to one of my favorite angles, The Cutback. He generally runs every 20 to 30 days, but they gave him 49 days off from his last start, and rightfully so, 12F will tear a strip out of you, BUT IT WILL ALSO CONDITION THE HORSE! After the well deserved break, they trained him and he put up some pretty pedestrian numbers breezing 4F on dirt, then they asked him to run a week before the race and he ran 5F in a minute flat, in hand on the same surface as today’s race. That tells me he had no adverse affects from his last start, and for a route horse, a minute flat is fast. I have seen this angle work time and time again, and it usually sets up the horse for a career best!

The track bias for the week leading up to today’s race favored horses coming off the pace, another positive for the 9, his PP’s are littered with late moves. He proved himself at this condition and RC in his last start, it just comes down to having the testicular fortitude to commit yourself to the angle.

Now let’s look at the horses that had recently won their last start, the 2-3-8-10. I give this angle a hard look, usually for horses underneath unless they can show me they have the ability to repeat. The 2-3-8 had put up big Total Energy numbers, and were obvious contenders for today’s race. The 2 had never run 3 races in a row, he needs the lay-off. The 3 (which i love), was very lightly raced this year, and was the obvious early horse, but he had a few question marks for me, track bias was against him, questionable form, shipped in that morning (which he had never done in the past), i would use him underneath at best. The 8, here is where it gets interesting, i like horses that put up big numbers 3 or 4 starts back, and they tend to cycle every 3 to 5 starts with a big effort. The 10 was the same way with one big difference, he had won his last start with other runners in that race coming back to win in their next start (exiting a key race).

I messed this race up along with a lot of other people, i have a bias toward the Woodbine runners and it left me with “blinkers on”. I looked at this race two ways, logically with the 5-2-3, and out in left field with the 9-10-11-1. Unfortunately i went with the logical selections and fell flat on my face, i at least should have used the 9 as a bomb as my third selection, but that’s what happens when you have 100 decisions to make in a race, you can’t always be right.

As a wise handicapper once told me, “things are a lot more obvious after the fact”.

Nicely done Sir, we also came up with pretty much the same horse for the contest, I think it was 2,3,4 and 7,8 as back up's, nothng on the 9 and 10.

The next few post will list various screen shotss, most wll understand, as I will show what we saw before and after.

patrick

[pktruckdriver]

Here is what the program choose for me, and it normally does well, I rarely have to change things when it picks lines, but later I will.

I have the adjusted screen showing what RDSS chose for me, and the BL/BL screen, then I sshow horse 9 and 10, and then I show BL/BL with every line of horse 9 and 10, and neither makes it near the top, but...

Net speed rating , what is it exactly, and why is it there?
Yes, 2 direct questions ?

How does a horse recieve a 61 DTV, please expain this, and does it come from RDSS or Trackmaster, please?

Why , in this race is the weight added to the 9 horse , just because he ran a 12f race recently, not win it , just run it, am I reading this right? Is this for real and why do this? Not an RDSS issue, but a question for the guy who say read the conditons , maybe he will explain this condition, and why it's there?

more to come