What's your opinion - Pace and Cap

shoeless · 07-16-2008, 05:37 PM

This is a race I did and I wanted to find out what 2 horses you liked from the readouts and why.This continues to be my biggest problem how to seperate the contenders once I have them entered.Hopefully your feedback will help.Thanks Jeff

Houndog · 07-16-2008, 06:35 PM

Well Jeff Princ with the highest Total Energy, lowest UXR and all the Paragons is the most obvious choice. Actually a standout in comparison to the other 3. So let's leave Princ for now and concentrate on the other horses.

Of the other 3 Asc; Dance; and Tiara I prefer ASC the least. Of the other 2 Tiara does have by the readouts a significant advantage in the Early stages of the race. Tiara has a 0.00 EMUV; is the 0.00 MUV horse with the next horse being Princ having a 2.19 MUV, this is a large gap between the 0.00 MUV and the next horse so Energy calls the Variegate Early.

In the EXDC Match Up Graphs the 0.00 horses are Princ and Tiara. Tiara has double 0.00's in 2 columns. I am concerned about Tiara's F3 of 29.71 in a route race. Tiara needs to save some of that Energy for the later portions of the race. Jeff Princ looks obvious here but for myself personally when they look this good for me they don't win as often as I would like.

Charlie D · 07-16-2008, 06:44 PM

Hi Jeff

Going by what i see on screen shots, as Houndog states Princ looks a standout, Tiara's Fr3 looks very weak, so i'd probably chuck it and concentrate on the other two contenders who look to be more likely dangers to the standout and of those two Dance looks to have the better balance overall

shoeless · 07-16-2008, 07:29 PM

Mike,What's the reasoning for not liking ASC?

Charlie,Appreciate the opinion Jeff

shipper · 07-16-2008, 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless

This is a race I did and I wanted to find out what 2 horses you liked from the readouts and why.This continues to be my biggest problem how to seperate the contenders once I have them entered.Hopefully your feedback will help.Thanks Jeff

Shoeless: A belated Happy Birthday to you... What catches my eye is the Early Matchup and Late Matchup. It looks like Tiara should get the jump on these, with Princ closing, but no one looks to really challenge Tiara. Not knowing if Tiara would be compromised with any other earlies in the race, since we only see these contenders, my guess is Tiara could wire these. The other two contenders don't seem to have a strong enough early or late to threaten. Also like Tiara's strong FX to go with the top EP on the Energy readout. Princ is solid across the Energy board which makes him definitely one of the top two contenders, in my opinion...What did you come up with in your final analysis?...Marty

shoeless · 07-16-2008, 10:21 PM

Marty thanks for the wishes.The horses you see are the only ones that I felt had a chance.I know you could put them all in but I prefer not to do that.Using Energy I have been told by RxLawyer,Houndog and Richie[when he was using it] that less is better and who am I to argue with these 3 guys.I get my contenders first before turning the computer on.I have strayed away from this and Pino keeps drumming it into my thick skull and Richie has told me in the past DONT PLAY RACES YOU DONT UNDERSTAND.So now if I cant get the race down to 3 or 4 horses I stay out of it.Sorry for rambling on like this.Anyway I thought Princ would win and liked Dance for 2nd,I will wait to see if anybody else chimes in and then will give the result.Thanks for your opinion and analysis it has helped.Jeff

Houndog · 07-16-2008, 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless

Mike,What's the reasoning for not liking ASC?

Charlie,Appreciate the opinion Jeff

Jeff, I don't hate the horse, but to me ASC and DANCE are close in the readouts. I give a slight edge to DANCE because of the lower overall UXR.

Also comparing F2 and F3 for these 2 horses I see Dance as slightly better. I don't see either of theme threatening Princ with their readouts. Honestly Jeff ASC and Dance are very close in their readouts.

Tiara at least has some clear advantage in the Emuv, MUV, and the 0.00's in the EXDC Match-up. ASC and Dance can't keep up with Tiara early and can't compete late with Princ.

shoeless · 07-17-2008, 05:59 AM

Mike,Thanks for explaining that,I forgot to tell you guys it was a 8.5 furlong race.

Tiara wired the field at 9-1 and Princ ran 2nd to complete a 60.00 ex.I didnt bet the race as Im only paper betting for now[since Tampa closed have had a bad run].I let the F3 on Tiara sway my opinion.Thanks for the replies.Jeff

MIKE · 07-17-2008, 06:21 AM

Jeff
--with your contender and paceline selection you should be wacking the hell out of this game
--go get 'em man

MIKE b

RichieP · 07-17-2008, 07:56 AM

Jeff
Just thinking aloud here. Can you use some of Jim Lehane's Value Line stuff to make a line on your contenders? If yes maybe that would help you. I notice he seems to focus on using raw data and that would match up with the software you are showing ok? I don't know the ins and outs of CH that is why I ask.

I agree with Mike. You are very good at contender/paceline stuff.

07-16-2008, 05:37 PM	#1
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	What's your opinion This is a race I did and I wanted to find out what 2 horses you liked from the readouts and why.This continues to be my biggest problem how to seperate the contenders once I have them entered.Hopefully your feedback will help.Thanks Jeff Attached Images

07-16-2008, 06:35 PM	#2
Houndog Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,258	Opinion Well Jeff Princ with the highest Total Energy, lowest UXR and all the Paragons is the most obvious choice. Actually a standout in comparison to the other 3. So let's leave Princ for now and concentrate on the other horses. Of the other 3 Asc; Dance; and Tiara I prefer ASC the least. Of the other 2 Tiara does have by the readouts a significant advantage in the Early stages of the race. Tiara has a 0.00 EMUV; is the 0.00 MUV horse with the next horse being Princ having a 2.19 MUV, this is a large gap between the 0.00 MUV and the next horse so Energy calls the Variegate Early. In the EXDC Match Up Graphs the 0.00 horses are Princ and Tiara. Tiara has double 0.00's in 2 columns. I am concerned about Tiara's F3 of 29.71 in a route race. Tiara needs to save some of that Energy for the later portions of the race. Jeff Princ looks obvious here but for myself personally when they look this good for me they don't win as often as I would like. Last edited by Houndog; 07-16-2008 at 06:37 PM.

07-16-2008, 06:44 PM	#3
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Hi Jeff Going by what i see on screen shots, as Houndog states Princ looks a standout, Tiara's Fr3 looks very weak, so i'd probably chuck it and concentrate on the other two contenders who look to be more likely dangers to the standout and of those two Dance looks to have the better balance overall __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

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07-16-2008, 07:29 PM	#4
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Mike,What's the reasoning for not liking ASC? Charlie,Appreciate the opinion Jeff

07-16-2008, 10:21 PM	#6
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Marty thanks for the wishes.The horses you see are the only ones that I felt had a chance.I know you could put them all in but I prefer not to do that.Using Energy I have been told by RxLawyer,Houndog and Richie[when he was using it] that less is better and who am I to argue with these 3 guys.I get my contenders first before turning the computer on.I have strayed away from this and Pino keeps drumming it into my thick skull and Richie has told me in the past DONT PLAY RACES YOU DONT UNDERSTAND.So now if I cant get the race down to 3 or 4 horses I stay out of it.Sorry for rambling on like this.Anyway I thought Princ would win and liked Dance for 2nd,I will wait to see if anybody else chimes in and then will give the result.Thanks for your opinion and analysis it has helped.Jeff

07-17-2008, 05:59 AM	#8
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Mike,Thanks for explaining that,I forgot to tell you guys it was a 8.5 furlong race. Tiara wired the field at 9-1 and Princ ran 2nd to complete a 60.00 ex.I didnt bet the race as Im only paper betting for now[since Tampa closed have had a bad run].I let the F3 on Tiara sway my opinion.Thanks for the replies.Jeff

07-17-2008, 06:21 AM	#9
MIKE Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Rochester NY Posts: 194	Jeff --with your contender and paceline selection you should be wacking the hell out of this game --go get 'em man MIKE b

07-17-2008, 07:56 AM	#10
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Jeff Just thinking aloud here. Can you use some of Jim Lehane's Value Line stuff to make a line on your contenders? If yes maybe that would help you. I notice he seems to focus on using raw data and that would match up with the software you are showing ok? I don't know the ins and outs of CH that is why I ask. I agree with Mike. You are very good at contender/paceline stuff.