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Old 10-12-2017, 07:44 PM   #11
Bill Lyster
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Once we are beyond the true earlies in a race, next comes decision on the pressers and the others.

If they have run against todays pace then we have a basis for comparison but if they have not, we need to determine if the horse will run the same time and end up running nearer or farther from the pace or be truly pace-dependent.

So for example the pace of race is 22.0-45.0, but our horse has a good race where it ran 21.8-44.8 and was 2 lengths off both fractions. Will it run 2 off the slower pace and theoretically have reserve energy or will it run 1 length off at both fractions and basically run the same race as its good race.

So, will this horse be a close contender at the first call or not. How do you evaluate these possible scenarios?
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Old 10-13-2017, 11:50 AM   #12
For The Lead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Once we are beyond the true earlies in a race, next comes decision on the pressers and the others.

If they have run against todays pace then we have a basis for comparison but if they have not, we need to determine if the horse will run the same time and end up running nearer or farther from the pace or be truly pace-dependent.

So for example the pace of race is 22.0-45.0, but our horse has a good race where it ran 21.8-44.8 and was 2 lengths off both fractions. Will it run 2 off the slower pace and theoretically have reserve energy or will it run 1 length off at both fractions and basically run the same race as its good race.

So, will this horse be a close contender at the first call or not. How do you evaluate these possible scenarios?
Bill,

For right now, this takes me further than I want to go, but I promise I will come back to your question.
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Old 10-14-2017, 09:34 AM   #13
lostandwon
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FTL, thanks for posing the questions.

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Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post

Obviously, you have to start with what constitutes and early horse. When you look at a race, what do you look for in order to determine if a horse is early and will challenge for the lead today?
In looking at a race I look for horse (s) that habitually/routinely run up front at the 1st call. Look left. Like Pook said I look for the color in the pps as viewed through rdss. I want them to be on the lead.

Regardless of if a lone E or many E, I want to see horse(s) on the lead to light up a number that serves as a target for the field to shoot at.

In routes, I do indeed light up 1st fr along with the 2nd even though no corresponding positional call.

All races are challenging, but I find myself unable to visualize and merely guessing (often incorrectly) how the race will run without that target for the field to shoot at.

In regard to the example:
"Let’s look at one example. A few of the paceless races in the match up area have been won either wire to wire or 2nd to wire. These winners will return in other races. Off of their last winning race, would you consider them an early horse? Keep in mind that there will be no indication that the horse beat a paceless field of horses in its’ last race. Since all you will know is that it won in early fashion, will you consider it an early horse and capable of challenging for the lead in today’s race?"

I would not consider them an early horse if they only showed E tendencies in their last race.

I look forward to your comments on Bill L's scenarios as well.
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Old 10-15-2017, 11:16 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Once we are beyond the true earlies in a race, next comes decision on the pressers and the others.

If they have run against todays pace then we have a basis for comparison but if they have not, we need to determine if the horse will run the same time and end up running nearer or farther from the pace or be truly pace-dependent.

So for example the pace of race is 22.0-45.0, but our horse has a good race where it ran 21.8-44.8 and was 2 lengths off both fractions. Will it run 2 off the slower pace and theoretically have reserve energy or will it run 1 length off at both fractions and basically run the same race as its good race.

So, will this horse be a close contender at the first call or not. How do you evaluate these possible scenarios?
Bill, this is not an easy discussion for me. Although I agree with some of Bradshaw’s theories I don’t subscribe to all of them. Here’s the thing, if his theories worked for him or if they work for anyone else, I think that is great! They’re just not all for me. Having said that….

In answer to your question, my very first thought is, selecting a “pace” is an arbitrary thing. Because a horse ran a particular number in one race does not mean it will run that same number today. When all your handicapping is based on an arbitrary number, what happens when the actual pace of today’s race is different? I have found that a horse’s running style has more influence than time. Also, distance will influence running style more than time. I’ll explain. More than likely, horses will run the same type/style of race regardless of today’s pace. Generally, horses are either early or they are not. They are pressers or they are not. They are closers or they are not. Naturally, early horses are the easiest to identify. When you find a dedicated early horse, you will see that if the distance of the race is 5 furlongs or a mile and a half, that horse will be on the lead. Closers are the next easiest. They always take up position at the back of the pack. It is the two types in between, early pressers and pressers, that create the most problems. Most of the problems in evaluating these types present themselves in sprint races where you have distances of 5 furlongs, 5.5 furlongs, 6 furlongs, 6.5 furlongs and 7 furlongs. Many times these early pressers and pressers will show “early” as the sprint distance gets longer. Likewise, where they have shown “early” at the longer sprint distances, they will show early presser or presser when they shorten up in sprint distance.

So, back to your question. What happens if the horses do not run to the pace you have decided on? Suppose they run two fifths faster or slower? It would seem to me that any conclusions you drew when handicapping the race go right out the window. I can’t live or die (so to speak) by deciding that I can correctly predict the actual running times of a race and as a result of that, accurately predict how any given horse will react to that prediction. Your question supposes that if one can accurately determine the pace times of the race, that on that basis, it allows you to determine if a horse will run one fifth of a second slower or faster thus becoming a part of the early pace or not. And how do you determine which of those two things it will do? WAIT A MINUTE! THAT was your question! My answer is...I have no idea. I guess that is the reason I don’t subscribe to that approach. With all the things there are to consider in attempting to pick the winner of a race, I certainly don’t need another.

I can set a first and second call time for a particular race at a particular track and, in most cases, I’ll be within a couple of fifths of that time. Do I take this into consideration as a matter of handicapping a race? NO. Why not? Because in my opinion...it doesn’t matter. Here’s an example.

Over the years I have found many races where there is clearly an early horse in the race. I’m talking about a horse that shows it runs AT THE FRONT in every race at the first and second call. The interesting thing is, this same horse will rank 4th or 5th in “time” to the first call. As the race develops, this horse WILL MAKE THE LEAD even though its’ times were slower. It will not win, but it will make the lead. This puts other early horses in the race in a position of having to run differently than what is normal for them. I think most people would dismiss the horse that always makes the lead as being to slow to make the lead today. In the alternative, if people believe the horse that always makes the lead does, in fact, make the lead again today, then the other early horses get dismissed. The normal result is that the slower horse makes the lead (again) and the other early types are content to sit just behind it in an early presser position. From there one of the other early types will take the lead and go on to win the race. After years of handicapping races, when I see this type of race I don’t know what the fractional times will be, but I know what outcome to expect.
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Old 10-16-2017, 08:36 PM   #15
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Good thread thanks
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Old 10-20-2017, 09:03 AM   #16
Bill Lyster
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Thanks for taking the time to respond. I may have to read it again for it to fully sink in.

As always, great stuff.
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