Races that I look for

[Bill V.]

The subject of which races to look for and when to pass or bet ..


It was a problem for me as well, The solution was to keep at track profile
and decision model .

My model has always been some help but I never could make a effective track
profile because my line selection was not consistent

With the help of taking much mre time record keeping than betting I now know which races to look for. The race I will demo is a good example.
I look for races like this one that I bet yesterday. I base my decision
to pass or bet a race based on the conditions, the distance and the matchup
of my contenders.

I would like to show a race from Parx from Sept 24

I will go through my pace line and contender selections as well as my betting decisions in a video format

But first I would like to show two screen shots

The first is the entries and conditions screen.
This screen is very important to me,
I have highlighted the ML and conditions of the race.



The conditions of this race.

Its a $7500 claimer but it has a restriction of non winners of 4 races life time
My records, model, and track profile give me a good example of which type horses are winning this class race and the usual running style
of the winners.


The Morning Line

I know Jim Bradshaw did not care about the morning line but I do.
Here i have highlighted the ML readout.
I look for races like this, were the ML favorite is 5/2
Also what I see is a field that has a separation of from 5/2 to 10 to 1.
This tells me that if the 5/2 ML horse looks beatable I should get good value.
The Parx ML favorite almost always gets bet down.

The second screen shot is the original pace lines screen.



This screen shows me the class of the race from which I picked my lines
It also is a great way to see the match up of those contender running styles.



The Format

I am following FTL's guidelines but I do make some changes based on form.
I also use the Phase 1 readouts in contender and pace line selections

My Bet
I bet two horse to win in this race
I have whited out the amount bet and won because I feel that is a individual
issue.


Here is the video were I pick up with horse 1

lookfor.mp4

[Lt1]

Excellent video Bill. Loved the step by step.

[Because I Can Jim]

Yes. An Excellent video Bill !!! Two Thumbs Up!!!

It helped for me to see your thinking process and how you go about analyzing a race. It gives food for thought - especially about how RDSS is being used differently from how I use it.

Much appreciated.
Jim

[Segwin]

Hi Bill:

I'll get to the video after dinner but I have a favor to ask.

Can you take some screen shots of your track profile and decision model and share them with some explanation? I've done a lot of Google searches but haven't managed to turn up much. I'm really interested in how folks setup a track profile.

If it is something you'd rather not share I fully understand.

Looking forward to the video (now where did I put my note pad and popcorn?).

BTW, I did play that race and bet & to win.

[DaveEdwards]

Great work Bill.

I really enjoyed watching your work up of that race. Thanks for taking the time to share this.

[DaveEdwards]

Segwin,

Take a look at the Original Brohamer Model manual. Also there are chapters on both track profiles and models in Modern Pace Handicapping by Tom Brohamer. If you don't have a copy I'd definitely recommend it.

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Segwin

Hi Bill:

I'll get to the video after dinner but I have a favor to ask.

Can you take some screen shots of your track profile and decision model and share them with some explanation? I've done a lot of Google searches but haven't managed to turn up much. I'm really interested in how folks setup a track profile.

If it is something you'd rather not share I fully understand.

Looking forward to the video (now where did I put my note pad and popcorn?).

BTW, I did play that race and bet & to win.

Thanks Terry

When you watch the video when I get to horse #2 I forgot to add something more about what I saw in this horse

Horse 2



If you will notice I have highlighted
the second call and the final time readouts.
What I noticed was this horse basically runs to its second call position. If you notice in almost every
race it has almost the same position in the second call and the finish. This horse hardly closes.

The thing I like about Phase 1 and the three readouts of phase1 EPR LPR and CPR is
I can see easily what a horse can do in the 3rd fraction. Now lets look at the TPR screen




Remember the EPR number is the second call
So if horse 2 almost always stay in its position at the second calland finish, look at its EPR number in todays match up, Its at least going to be in 5th position
behind the 3, 5, 1 and 8 because they all have better EPR readouts than Horse 2
Yes it has the best LPR readout but when have we seen this horse pass horses - hardly ever

I'm sorry I missed this in the video, Its an important step.

Bill

[Bill V.]

Thank you Jim Tim Terry and Dave !

Here is the result chart



The 5 did get the lead but had to pass the 1 just like the segment screen said. It soon found itself chasing the winner
The margin of victory was small but a win none the less

Now for my record keeping ..

As soon as the charts come up I record the name date distance race number
and the class of the race. The next few things I record are taken from the winner of the race. They are the running style of the winner the morning line of the winner, the final odds of the winner and then the pace of race times



The rest of my data is from follow up 81, Doc's Ideal spreadsheet

I have to wait to do the model. but I can do my profile at this point.
My model and profile are exactly what Dick.Schmidt teaches in Pace Makes The Race.
My model shows the actual EPR LPR and TPR with adjustments of the winner
This is very hard to do but Its a labor of love.

The track profile is a little easier because I take my EPR LPR and CPR from
the pace line I used when I handicapped the race I find the more I enter and my profile matches my model, that means I'm picking my pace lines well

[Appy]

Excellent sequence Bill.

PS: I've made a lot of progress the past several days. Threads like this one are a great help.

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by Appy

Excellent sequence Bill.

I'll second that.