CD turf - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 11-16-2007, 10:54 AM

Here is a method to consider on the grass. Got most of the idea of this from (Socantra) months ago and have been looking at it for a while now. Thanks man!

Heart of it is TPR and NOT a projecting of pace for contender/line selection.

With different rail/lane positions timing is often way off especially fractional calls. So let's consider bypassing the trees(fractions) and look at the forest(totality of the race). TPR will be our tool of choice for this.

Here is today's 2nd race at Churchill which will go in about 2 hours.

Start with all the horse's full pp's with the 3 and 6 being announced as scratched.

RichieP · 11-16-2007, 10:55 AM

Rest of field

RichieP · 11-16-2007, 11:01 AM

Step 1 - Find highest TPR on the grass from each horse's last race and use that as measuring stick for others IF the number has been repeated before in THAT horse's past performances.

In this race the 9 has top last out number of 179.5. However it is it's best number so we have to move to next highest.

Next up is the 4 horse at 172. Not only has he run that before he has exceeded it a few times. HERE is our guy man.

We accept 172 and will not consider horses/lines that can not run that fast.

screenshots of the 9 and 4

RichieP · 11-16-2007, 11:09 AM

Step 2 - Select contenders/lines

Now everyone can run wild and do their own thing regarding stuff like

angles
apv
class
turf feet

dirt acceptance
late pace

Here is what my "mix" looks like.

I am going to accept a dirt(poly) line on the 5 horse. He shows a win as a young 3 yr old 9 months ago and with a natural progression/improvement that last line looks more than reasonable.

Let's see what we see.

screenshots showing:
1) Velocity
2) Energy
3) Tpr
4) Bl/Bl

JimG · 11-16-2007, 11:10 AM

In Race 3 today at CD, I like 9 (Fairwell Madrid) and 8 (Scotland Place). I just hope the rails are not as far out as they were yesterday. Have a good one.

Jim

admin · 11-16-2007, 01:22 PM

Hi Rich

I'm running wild with my wagger capping and APV
LOL!!!

I will wager cap with the 9 and the 8
I will root for the unknown on the turf but excellent apv cr
# 5
Since Its 2 out of top 3 I will take the 8 and 9
GS
Thanks
Bill

RichieP · 11-16-2007, 02:45 PM

Result of the race:

Winner is #1 Total Energy + #1 total Speed + counter energy(only horse on early side of graph). Was also our "measuring stick horse".

Churchill Downs - Race 3 [ Chart ] [ Video Replay ]
# Win Place Show
4 $7.20 $3.60 $2.40
9 . $3.80 $2.80
5 . . $2.60

Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | ALL
Wager-Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2 Exacta 4-9 $18.20
$1 Trifecta Box $25.70
$2 Trifecta 4-9-5 $51.40

RichieP · 11-16-2007, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by admin

Hi Rich

I'm running wild with my wagger capping and APV
LOL!!!

I will wager cap with the 9 and the 8
I will root for the unknown on the turf but excellent apv cr
# 5
Since Its 2 out of top 3 I will take the 8 and 9
GS
Thanks
Bill

Hey Bill.
Wild race as the 8 had no chance after breaking like a mile behind everyone. 4 had things all his own way up front and wired

RichieP · 11-18-2007, 10:05 AM

Let's try another and see what we see. Today's 7th from Churchill. They are showing the 13-14-15 as scratched. Nice big field we have.

First the horse's pp's in full with the Tpr's showing in the middle tab.

RichieP · 11-18-2007, 10:07 AM

pp's

11-16-2007, 10:55 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Rest of field Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

11-16-2007, 11:01 AM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Process Step 1 - Find highest TPR on the grass from each horse's last race and use that as measuring stick for others IF the number has been repeated before in THAT horse's past performances. In this race the 9 has top last out number of 179.5. However it is it's best number so we have to move to next highest. Next up is the 4 horse at 172. Not only has he run that before he has exceeded it a few times. HERE is our guy man. We accept 172 and will not consider horses/lines that can not run that fast. screenshots of the 9 and 4 Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

11-16-2007, 11:09 AM	#4
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Process Step 2 - Select contenders/lines Now everyone can run wild and do their own thing regarding stuff like angles apv class turf feet dirt acceptance late pace Here is what my "mix" looks like. I am going to accept a dirt(poly) line on the 5 horse. He shows a win as a young 3 yr old 9 months ago and with a natural progression/improvement that last line looks more than reasonable. Let's see what we see. screenshots showing: 1) Velocity 2) Energy 3) Tpr 4) Bl/Bl Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

11-16-2007, 01:22 PM	#6
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	running wild Hi Rich I'm running wild with my wagger capping and APV LOL!!! I will wager cap with the 9 and the 8 I will root for the unknown on the turf but excellent apv cr # 5 Since Its 2 out of top 3 I will take the 8 and 9 GS Thanks Bill Attached Images

11-16-2007, 02:45 PM	#7
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Result of the race: Winner is #1 Total Energy + #1 total Speed + counter energy(only horse on early side of graph). Was also our "measuring stick horse". Churchill Downs - Race 3 [ Chart ] [ Video Replay ] # Win Place Show 4 $7.20 $3.60 $2.40 9 . $3.80 $2.80 5 . . $2.60 Results: 01 \| 02 \| 03 \| 04 \| 05 \| ALL Wager-Type Winning Numbers Paid $2 Exacta 4-9 $18.20 $1 Trifecta Box $25.70 $2 Trifecta 4-9-5 $51.40 __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!" Last edited by RichieP; 11-16-2007 at 02:54 PM.

11-16-2007, 10:54 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	CD turf Here is a method to consider on the grass. Got most of the idea of this from (Socantra) months ago and have been looking at it for a while now. Thanks man! Heart of it is TPR and NOT a projecting of pace for contender/line selection. With different rail/lane positions timing is often way off especially fractional calls. So let's consider bypassing the trees(fractions) and look at the forest(totality of the race). TPR will be our tool of choice for this. Here is today's 2nd race at Churchill which will go in about 2 hours. Start with all the horse's full pp's with the 3 and 6 being announced as scratched. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

11-16-2007, 11:10 AM	#5
JimG Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 992	In Race 3 today at CD, I like 9 (Fairwell Madrid) and 8 (Scotland Place). I just hope the rails are not as far out as they were yesterday. Have a good one. Jim

11-18-2007, 10:05 AM	#9
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	11/18 Race 7 Let's try another and see what we see. Today's 7th from Churchill. They are showing the 13-14-15 as scratched. Nice big field we have. First the horse's pp's in full with the Tpr's showing in the middle tab. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

11-18-2007, 10:07 AM	#10
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	11/18 Race 7 pp's Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

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