The "Mind's Eye" - Part 2

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by raceman5

Richie,
Describe very close?
Bob

Bob
Use your own personal judgment ok? Reason is that each of us has a "Mind's Eye" that sees things a bit differently.

Richie

[Bill Lyster]

#1, S - use race 5, 5.5f against todays pace: 4-4-3-2

#2, very S and slow, out

#3, [Tandem with #1, lost big] very S and slow, out - rte extractions slow too

#4, [Tandem with #1, beat #1] could use lines 1-2-4; won and placed at better than todays pace in last two; use race 2: 6-5-3-2, or race 1: 5-5-3-1

#5, [Tandem with #6 on 2/1] Mostly S-type but last showed more interest at the start and closer positioning at all points of call; could be a P off last. Pace of last just a little outside todays pace, but for now, in the mix: 2-4-4-3 (not a conventional power move profile)

#6, [Tandem with #1 and others] predominantly S type; last two lines against today's pace: 7-7-4-2 (2 back) but 4-3-4-5 in last. Trouble line indicates horse might have been a little better and power profile might have been better. 3 back pace is a little softer but closed 3-2-2-2, gaining at each call. Also broke 9th in last race and 3rd in 3rd back. Horse has habit of putting itself in a bind. In last race the leader(s) were probably gassed in the stretch which may have caused the blocked conditions. At todays pace there won't be so much backing up.

#7, the apparent pace setter that showed last out it could rate;showed he could fight late in 2nd from last race; formidable: either 2-2-1-1 or 1-1-1-1 in a better time. Use 3rd back to match up

#8, [Yet another Tandem with #1 and in this case a double tandem with the troubled #6. This horse also finds trouble whether wide or in stretch], S type with 6-7-6-4 and 5-6-5-4 lines. Lost in both tandems - out

Matchups: #4 v #1: 5-5-3-1 power move against faster puts away 4-4-3-2

#4 vs #5: #5 backs up against todays pace and #4 powers by. #5 Out. #5 backed up in tandem with #6 as well.

#4 vs #6: To me the big "if" horse: lost the fast tandem, but had trouble. Was 3-2-2-2 and gaining v. a pace that was hair slower than today. #4 better by 3rd call. #6 out.

#4 vs #7: Great match for 2 horse betters - and E and a P. #7 gets lead at 1st call, but #4 starts to pressure by 2c; #4 moves quickly against much better 5f times - but #7 fought well againt 57.3 2nd from bottom race.

#4 wins, but I like the exacta here

Bill

[raceman5]

Ok, i will use what Mike Pizzola suggests when looking for the Fulcrum horse and that is no mre than 5 lengths behind at the half and the finish. Think the late Ray Talbout and Huhey Maul used that also.

Bob

[PeteC]

Thanks for the kind words, Rich...very encouraging to hear while I'm trying to learn...

Projected Pace = 22.1

#1 vs #2...#2 has a winning race against a 22.2 and a dud against a 22.1; while #1 has made some impact a couple of times: line 2 (4-4-3-3) and line 5 (4-4-3-2). He also made up many lengths in his last race against a much faster pace (21.2)...I'd prefer the #1.

#1 vs #3...Although #3 ran well in line 5 against a 22.1 (6-5-3-2) he also got beat by the #1 horse in the last race tandem. Still prefer #1.

#1 vs #4...Here 's the tandem winner from the last line. In addition, line 2 he shows 6-5-3-2 against a 21.4, and a 2-2-1-1 against a 22.2 in line 4. Now, I like the #4.

#4 vs #5...#5 was close last time against a 22.3 but also shows 6 duds against 22.1/22.2 or better...Still like the #4

#4 vs #6...#6 was beaten last out in the tandem, but ran well 2 back (7-7-4-2) against a 22.2...Still, he got beat in the tandem and his other races in the ballpark of today's pace don't look so good...I'll stick with #4.

#4 vs #7...Here's my projected pacesetter who shows a win last out (2-2-1-1) against a 22.1 and another win 3 back wire-to-wire against a 22.1, and a very competitive race 6 back against a faster 21.3 which included some fighting in the stretch)...Honestly, This is where I probably would abort the process and skip down to the #8. After eliminating him, I'm confident this race is down to the #4 and the #7. What I see with the #4 is that he can run very close to the pace too and even fight against a pace like today's. If the pace gets too quick he can fall further back and still run well too. My initial impression was the race to run early, and #4 is a horse I'd want to consider in either an Early or an OTE race. Anyway, as a 2-horse bettor I'd bet both, but as a one-horse bettor, I could not confidently separate the 2.

Pete

[RichieP]

Ok excellent feedback so far!

I am VERY happy because I can give you all some straight talk from Jim regarding separation of the the final 2 contenders WHEN you are very confident you have the race down to 2 guys ok?

I'll wait a few days for others to chime in and then give you direct feedback that the Hat gave me when I would get "stuck" and couldn't separate the final 2.

EVERYONE seems very sincere in their working of these races and that is EXCELLENT man!

The "Voodoo Man's" words will help all those stuck in a few days I promise.

Richie

[azbacks]

1 vs 2 - 2 is way off at 1st call ...go with the 1
1 vs 3 - 3 better in routes, off pace in sprints.....still the 1
1 vs 4 - 4 better at 1st call that the 1...4 is the one
4 vs 5 - 5 last time out off pace at 1st call....out
4 vs 6 - third back was as good as it gets for 6...off pace.....out
4 vs 7 - pace setter and finishes...in 7th back shows a some fight...keep 7
7 vs 8 - off pace in sprint....out with 8

Leaves the 7 with the 4 as a second win bet

azbacks (Pete H)

[VoodooFan]

1st call projection---22.1

#1 vs #2 --- #1 has line 2 (4-4-3-3) & line 5 (4-4-3-2) both at todays pace.
#2 line 1 is 7-7-5-2 at a 22.3. Line 3 & 4 of the #2 , he's 7th both times at a 22.3
and gets beat very bad. Top off #2 line 6 at todays pace with
6-8-4-7 . #2 is OUT. #1 is IN.

#1 vs #3 --- #3 line 3 fails badly at a 22.2. #3 line 5 at
todays pace is 6-5-3-2. #1 PowerLine 5 is 4-4-3-2. The #1
is ahead of the #3. #3 is OUT. #1 is IN.

#1 vs #4 --- #4 line 1 DESTROYS #1 in Tandem. #4
line 2 shows faster Pace of Race vs #1 PowerLine 5, so #4
will be closer to the pace. #4 line 4 position is 2nd and
WINS, also closer to the pace than #1. #1 is OUT. #4 is IN.

#4 vs #5 --- #5 has failed at todays projected 1st call in ALL
lines. #5 line 1, he's is position 2nd at a 22.3 and
finishes 3rd, while #4 is line 4 is position 2nd at a 22.2
and WINS. The #4 is ahead of the #5. #5 is OUT.
#4 is IN.

#4 vs #6 ---#6 line 1 LOST in Tandem to #4. #6 line's
2,3, & 5 he's 7th at a 22.2, 3rd at a 22.3 and 7th at a 22.3
ALL finishing 2nd. We have the #4 who WINS from 2nd
position from a 22.2. #6 is OUT. #4 is IN.

#4 vs #7 ---#7 lines 1 & 3 can WIN from BOTH positions 1 & 2
at a 22.1. #7 line 6 PowerLine shows he can run much
faster if he has to. The final straw is possibly WHERE
the #4 will challenge the #7. The #7 Lines 1,3 & 5
can withstand any possible challenge from the #4 at a
FASTER pace. Besides, the #4 style lately is a Presser
that presses late anyway(sustained presser). #4 is OUT.
#7 is IN.

#7 vs #8 --- #8 does not have any lines to match with the #7.
#8 is OUT. #7 is IN.

Looks like we are left with the #7 as a Lone Early horse with the #4 coming in
the money.

VoodooFan

[VoodooFan]

Originally Posted by PeteC

Anyway, as a 2-horse bettor I'd bet both, but as a one-horse bettor, I could not confidently separate the 2.
Pete

Originally Posted by RichieP

am VERY happy because I can give you all some straight talk from Jim regarding separation of the the final 2 contenders WHEN you are very confident you have the race down to 2 guys ok?

I'll wait a few days for others to chime in and then give you direct feedback that the Hat gave me when I would get "stuck" and couldn't separate the final 2.

Richie, you addressed this in the post titled " How to best match using
raw/original times and the entire past performances?" Practice race #2.

VoodooFan

[lsosa54]

Confirming Restless Tizzy's first call pace to match against: 22.1. He just sat 2nd off that pace and won by 8+ and he set that pace in his maiden claiming breaker. Going back to the 21.3 he set in that straight maiden race @ Zia is stretching it. He shouldn't have to run any faster than 22.1 as there is no one else in the race that has had the lead at the first call in either a sprint or route in 22.1
============================================================
1 v 2: The 1 shows a 2nd place finish and a more distant 3rd vs. a 22.1. The 2 has not faced a 22.1. The 1 moves on.

1 v 3: The 3 shows a close 2nd vs. a 22.1 45.3 (6-5-3-2). The 1 ran against a 22.1 45.4 (4-4-3-2). Even if I adjust the positions on the 1 to 4-5 for running a tick slower 2nd call, he's ahead at the first call.

The 1 has also run well off a 57.3 stretch call while the 3's fastest close race shows a 58.1 stretch call. The 1 moves on.

1 v 4: The 4 won the 03-23 tandem off a 21.2 43.4 56.3 (5-5-3-1). The 3 stands no chance. The 4 moves on.

4 v 5: The 5 has never run successfully against a 22.1. The 4 moves on.

4 v 6: Comes out of the 03-23 tandem the 4 won and appears to have had some trouble. He had 1 position on the 4 at the first call and 2 positions on the 4 at the 2nd call before being blocked late 1/16 before the stretch call. My tandem strategy here will be to say that the positional advantage would have carried to the end without the trouble. The 6 moves on.

6 v 7: I quote: "It is VERY difficult to go wire to wire against FAST horses who make great Power Moves." - The Hat

I think the 6 would have shown a stronger move w/o trouble in his last and he showed a very nice one two back off a 22.2 45.1. I think the 6 will move by the 7. The 6 moves on.

6 v 8: Another entrant out of the very fast paced 03-23 tandem race who also seems to have had some trouble (6-7-6-4). I think the 6 had trouble earlier in the race than the 8 did and was positionally better at the 1st 3 calls.

Also, their common race of 02-01 has the 6 positionally better at every call.

My 1 horse bet would be the 6. My 2 horse bet would be the 6 and 8, odds allowing.

Lou's 2 cents

[RichieP]

Over a year ago Hat gave me this feedback when I would get stuck on 2 horses and couldn't reduce to 1. When I use quotes believe me it is EXACTLY the man's words to me.

" Rich when you have the race down to 2 contenders and one of them is EARLY bet the EARLY horse." - Jim Bradhsaw

Result chart for this race will go up Saturday morning.
Richie