The power of Total Energy #1

[BJennet]

This can be a very complex game, as we know, but for newer players, or those having a difficult time, I would recommend something that is outside the standard practice of the Sartin method, but might be helpful in getting on track, as it has been to a friend of mine.

As we know, TE #1 wins more races than the lower ranks, for me .37 at all tracks, and .41 on the NY and CA circuits and at WO. I suggested to my friend that he simply bet this horse at all odds over 3-1. He's doing very well with this simple strategy, and just called me to say he had hit a 9-1 shot in the first race at AQU today using it. After congratulating him on this, I suggested that next time he call me before the race :-).

Cheers,

B Jennet

[clore1030]

If only that will work in the 8th at AQU today. I've got a 15/1 shot there (the 5 horse) that also comes up second in BL, but first in EPR and FW - both of which have been producing the most winners at the distance.

If one looks at the horse's record, one sees the horse was shopping around the East coast and had to be dropped into a MC 7.5 at Finger Lakes to finally win. Then he stepped up to a NW2 there and won. Using that line (albeit a sloppy track) gives the horse some good figs against what is a likely prohibitive favorite.

I'd be interested though in how you arrive at those percentages. Specifically if you use other criteria to trim down a field in the first place, or do you knock them out starting with the lowest TE score?

Also, is this after hiding favorites?

I always trim a field down to five contenders. I never hide favorites. If a fave does appear to dominate, I just pass the race.

Presently I have 42% of 6F Inner Dirt winners coming from EPR and 50% of them from FW.

Dislaimer - only races for winners and only 20K claimers and up make my day. My own experience shows me that the biggest aberrations come from cheap claiming horses and I'm looking to have the percentages in my favor.

PS - I only bring up the eighth race as there are just six entrants to start with. I wait for scratches to trim a field before I do, until then I evaluate every entrant.

[chris]

Is this the one your friend bet?

From my Twinspires account:

2010-01-09 09:29:51 Bet* Aqueduct 1 Trifecta $1.00 2+3+9/10/1+2+3+5+9 $12.00 $869.50
2010-01-09 09:30:19 Bet* Aqueduct 1 Win $2.00 2+9 $4.00 $20.80

However in my case Total Energy wasn't the determinate. A questionable favorite and a horse who loves to hang pointed me in this direction. The favorite was out of the money, the hangar hung, and held for 2nd, the 9-1 horse won, and my other win bet, at 67-1, ran third. Made for a nice trifecta.

This is a case of the race informing the bet; didn't know who was going to win but was reasonably sure who wasn't, and had a strong sense of who was going to run second.

Rdss (Val 4) confirmed my choices, more rather than less, and so I went ahead. Don't remember how the horses were ranked/tiered, but don't have to because this exact race, with these combatants, at this distance, under these weather conditions, at this track, has a high probablility of never happening again.

A shame this race wasn't in our contest, but I am going to keep the money.

Bet a little to win a lot!

Chris

P.S. Don't post races in advance because I do them as I go along, and then quickly move to the next race.

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by clore1030

If only that will work in the 8th at AQU today. I've got a 15/1 shot there (the 5 horse) that also comes up second in BL, but first in EPR and FW - both of which have been producing the most winners at the distance.

If one looks at the horse's record, one sees the horse was shopping around the East coast and had to be dropped into a MC 7.5 at Finger Lakes to finally win. Then he stepped up to a NW2 there and won. Using that line (albeit a sloppy track) gives the horse some good figs against what is a likely prohibitive favorite.

I'd be interested though in how you arrive at those percentages. Specifically if you use other criteria to trim down a field in the first place, or do you knock them out starting with the lowest TE score?

Also, is this after hiding favorites?

I always trim a field down to five contenders. I never hide favorites. If a fave does appear to dominate, I just pass the race.

Presently I have 42% of 6F Inner Dirt winners coming from EPR and 50% of them from FW.

Dislaimer - only races for winners and only 20K claimers and up make my day. My own experience shows me that the biggest aberrations come from cheap claiming horses and I'm looking to have the percentages in my favor.

PS - I only bring up the eighth race as there are just six entrants to start with. I wait for scratches to trim a field before I do, until then I evaluate every entrant.

Hi Charlie,

If you scroll down, you find the TE results I originally put up in Richie's autopaceline thread.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=6240&page=4

You can see that 3yos are among the groups I've filtered out, since I don't play them, finding them to be more erratic performers than I'd like, but that doesn't mean that TE won't win - I just can't confirm the hit rate.

Paceline selection is simply done by looking at the #1 'Energy' screen and, for each horse, taking the line with the best TE among 'last three comparable'. Obvious outliers should be eliminated and, of course, experienced handicappers should use their discretion, but I no longer use 'no wins showing' as a filter, since it was cutting out some good prices.

Also, re hiding, since I mentioned 3-1 as my lower betting limit, there usually is no need. The reason I mention this to newer players is that it will give them a higher hit rate than the other ranks, and hopefully build confidence.

#1 TE did especially well at AQU yesterday, taking not only R.1 but also R.6 @12-1, and R.7 @4-1.

As far as today's race goes, the 5 would fit the bill, but given a group of very lightly-raced horses with wide class differences, I would exercise caution. As Guy Wadsworth pointed out, the software works best using horses that are showing at least 10 races.

If you have any more questions, just post.

Best of luck.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by chris

Is this the one your friend bet?

From my Twinspires account:

2010-01-09 09:29:51 Bet* Aqueduct 1 Trifecta $1.00 2+3+9/10/1+2+3+5+9 $12.00 $869.50
2010-01-09 09:30:19 Bet* Aqueduct 1 Win $2.00 2+9 $4.00 $20.80

However in my case Total Energy wasn't the determinate. A questionable favorite and a horse who loves to hang pointed me in this direction. The favorite was out of the money, the hangar hung, and held for 2nd, the 9-1 horse won, and my other win bet, at 67-1, ran third. Made for a nice trifecta.

This is a case of the race informing the bet; didn't know who was going to win but was reasonably sure who wasn't, and had a strong sense of who was going to run second.

Rdss (Val 4) confirmed my choices, more rather than less, and so I went ahead. Don't remember how the horses were ranked/tiered, but don't have to because this exact race, with these combatants, at this distance, under these weather conditions, at this track, has a high probablility of never happening again.

A shame this race wasn't in our contest, but I am going to keep the money.

Bet a little to win a lot!

Chris

P.S. Don't post races in advance because I do them as I go along, and then quickly move to the next race.

Tremendous hit Chris!!!!! Man bets a little to win a lot

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by BJennet

Hi Charlie,

If you scroll down, you find the TE results I originally put up in Richie's autopaceline thread.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=6240&page=4

You can see that 3yos are among the groups I've filtered out, since I don't play them, finding them to be more erratic performers than I'd like, but that doesn't mean that TE won't win - I just can't confirm the hit rate.

Paceline selection is simply done by looking at the #1 'Energy' screen and, for each horse, taking the line with the best TE among 'last three comparable'. Obvious outliers should be eliminated and, of course, experienced handicappers should use their discretion, but I no longer use 'no wins showing' as a filter, since it was cutting out some good prices.

Also, re hiding, since I mentioned 3-1 as my lower betting limit, there usually is no need. The reason I mention this to newer players is that it will give them a higher hit rate than the other ranks, and hopefully build confidence.

#1 TE did especially well at AQU yesterday, taking not only R.1 but also R.6 @12-1, and R.7 @4-1.

As far as today's race goes, the 5 would fit the bill, but given a group of very lightly-raced horses with wide class differences, I would exercise caution. As Guy Wadsworth pointed out, the software works best using horses that are showing at least 10 races.

If you have any more questions, just post.

Best of luck.

Cheers,

B Jennet

I'll check that out. I may have some questions later, thanks.

This post defines how I arrive at a pace line:
http://www.paceandcap.com/forums/sho...2412#post62412

I was quite pleased when Rich responded that it was quite similar to his own auto-selection process.

I'm not crazy about lightly raced horses either. Too much of a possibility of rapid improvement. The odds have to be favorable and if I'm having a good day, I might make an action bet, but otherwise I play with caution. I may dope out the races every day, but I don't wager every day. It tends to average one spot per day.

I was tempted to go with the 3 in the first at AQU today, he has the figs and the ability to run well fresh. Plus the odds are nice.

However the inner voice says to hold back and I trust my instincts.

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by chris

Is this the one your friend bet?

From my Twinspires account:

2010-01-09 09:29:51 Bet* Aqueduct 1 Trifecta $1.00 2+3+9/10/1+2+3+5+9 $12.00 $869.50
2010-01-09 09:30:19 Bet* Aqueduct 1 Win $2.00 2+9 $4.00 $20.80

However in my case Total Energy wasn't the determinate. A questionable favorite and a horse who loves to hang pointed me in this direction. The favorite was out of the money, the hangar hung, and held for 2nd, the 9-1 horse won, and my other win bet, at 67-1, ran third. Made for a nice trifecta.

This is a case of the race informing the bet; didn't know who was going to win but was reasonably sure who wasn't, and had a strong sense of who was going to run second.

Rdss (Val 4) confirmed my choices, more rather than less, and so I went ahead. Don't remember how the horses were ranked/tiered, but don't have to because this exact race, with these combatants, at this distance, under these weather conditions, at this track, has a high probablility of never happening again.

A shame this race wasn't in our contest, but I am going to keep the money.

Bet a little to win a lot!

Chris

P.S. Don't post races in advance because I do them as I go along, and then quickly move to the next race.

Hi Chris,

Congratulations on your hit. As I said, my post was mainly for newer handicappers looking for a simple, but relatively high-percentage play. Experienced players like yourself should continue to do what's been working for them.

Although TE-1 doesn't get many prices like this, it was good to see. Also worth mentioning, is that three of the four top TEs filled out the rest of the tri, while eliminating the top two favorites.

Re RDSS, I have mentioned before, that 'mechanical TE' often produces results similar to the BL/BL of the software, but, at least for me, higher ROI.

Continued good fortune.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by clore1030

I'll check that out. I may have some questions later, thanks.

This post defines how I arrive at a pace line:
http://www.paceandcap.com/forums/sho...2412#post62412

I was quite pleased when Rich responded that it was quite similar to his own auto-selection process.

I'm not crazy about lightly raced horses either. Too much of a possibility of rapid improvement. The odds have to be favorable and if I'm having a good day, I might make an action bet, but otherwise I play with caution. I may dope out the races every day, but I don't wager every day. It tends to average one spot per day.

I was tempted to go with the 3 in the first at AQU today, he has the figs and the ability to run well fresh. Plus the odds are nice.

However the inner voice says to hold back and I trust my instincts.

Charles,

Agree with what you say here, and the paceline selection your link outlines sounds somewhat similar to what I described. Using a speed number as you do sounds like a very good way to filter high-TE outliers - I try to do the same kind of thing more informally, but I will keep it in mind.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[clore1030]

How's this for a nice TE catch?

I have FW and HID as my top % winners at 1m/70 yds on the inner dirt, so this was a no brainer.

Paid $45.80, my only bet of the day.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by clore1030

How's this for a nice TE catch?

I have FW and HID as my top % winners at 1m/70 yds on the inner dirt, so this was a no brainer.

Paid $45.80, my only bet of the day.

I'd say that's a bonanza "catch" Charles!!!!

Very nice and there will be more!