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06-02-2022, 12:01 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 377
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Belmont stakes win profile fast and off tracks
In case you couldn't open the attachments here are the screen shots of the models.
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06-02-2022, 07:17 AM | #2 |
Conley
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Fergus, Canada
Posts: 1,777
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Looks like you forgot UNION RAGS 2012 Belmont Stakes Omar
And 2005, 2018 and 2020
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Life is an adventure, enjoy it and live every day as if it were your last- Barb Craven Last edited by CheckMark; 06-02-2022 at 07:19 AM. |
06-02-2022, 01:55 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 377
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Didn't forget. Afleet Alex, Union Rags and Justify all retired after the Belmont, and since they did not run again there was no info to copy down from the subsequent file. I stink in math, except business math, so unless somebody can figure out the fps formulas the program is using and come up with the same answers as the program, I'm at a loss.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1654192455 |
06-02-2022, 05:45 PM | #4 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Thornhill ON
Posts: 437
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Quote:
Looks like you have to squeeze the pulp so little to squeeze get a winner
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May all wagers be Winners... |
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06-08-2022, 05:58 PM | #5 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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Isn't each race a summary of the various pace pressure expressed THAT RACE, THAT DAY.? I agree that historical data gives one a GENERAL idea of a projection, but I wouldn't get married to that idea
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Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
06-08-2022, 10:41 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 377
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Taken from a recent email I responded to.
I don't always agree with VC accu pressure. I trust the TPR#'s more and FPS #'s that make up the models that I keep. I will look at VC screens because sometimes the turf #'s help with FTS in maiden races and APV#'s in Turf races. Sometimes the VC screen will point to a live longshot in the race. But overall I will follow my models. The model is a blueprint for what part of the race the winners are coming from. Nothing is foolproof as is evidenced by Palace Malice's race which did not fit the model, however the other 2 wet track winners did conform to the fast model although they ran much closer to the pace, but that's how Belmont plays when wet. Even though I use a 10 race sample, it's a cross section of how the track plays at that distance/surface. Prove it to yourself, not to me, by doing another 10 race sample in another month and compare the models. I've been doing Sartin and Brohamer since 1985. Sure if you do a 100 race sample you will always find a handful of of races that don't conform to the model BUT you'll find that 90+ will. What worked 40 years ago will work today. Knowing what characteristics to look for is your edge in the race over the bettors who watch the first 2-3 races and think they know how the track is playing. Now if they compare those races to the models they keep, they'll know for sure what's going on. The 7F turf model is not the inner turf. Once in a while they'll run it there if the feel the main course is unsafe. I prefer the grass races because of the ambiguity it throws at my competition which = big prices. If Belmont comes up off or real wet, I'll probably just look at the grass races and the Belmont Stakes and look towards Woodbine's grass races. Since they messed with Gulfstream, I'll have to redo my models again. Omar |
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