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07-26-2010, 10:31 PM | #1 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Oklahoma
Posts: 76
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Del Mar track model
I have been trying to keep up Brohamer type models for several of my frequently played tracks from the charts. If anyone is interested, Del Mar has a database on their web page that contains almost all of the info needed for a ready made track model. I opened it in excel and sorted by distance, then by surface. I particularly like the columns with second call positions, times and final times for each distance. Helps with contender and pace line selection. Here is the link to the page:
http://www.dmtc.com/polycapping/ Anyone know of any other tracks that maintain the same type records for public use? Pat C. |
07-27-2010, 12:09 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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looks like California is the top of the class with this info..
thxs Pat
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Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
07-27-2010, 05:04 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Wow,
What a nice little data base. Has all races for 2007,2008 and 2010. 2009 missing for some reason. Out of 731 races won by other than first time starters, almost 91% were coming back to the races within 70 days, 82 % within 45 days. Some of the best trainers hardly ever win outside even smaller windows. Its worth a long look. Bill |
07-28-2010, 09:24 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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I believe our For The Lead will concur to this . He has a vast database of stats for the whole USA over many, many years...
Somewhere in there I think there's some stats on Ben Hur mike
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Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
07-28-2010, 01:54 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Yeah, too bad they outlawed "spiked" wheels. My kinda chariot!
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07-28-2010, 02:00 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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I played with the data base a bit, sorted by trainer and you start to see that there is a time window wherein certain guys run their horses where they are successful. Some never win with less than 20 days rest, some only win with returns less than 3 weeks (think the Stute clan, for instance)
For instance, I could find only one trainer who won multiple times with horses coming back with less than two weeks rest - Mike Mitchell. Its so rare these days that this happens. When Oscar Barrera would run them three times a week after claiming/juicing them that was rather amazing at that time... Anyone know why the 2009 data is not presented, other than perhaps the keeper had better (?) things to do? |
07-29-2010, 11:52 PM | #7 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 47
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I can't get it to work right. For some reason it isn't showing 2009.
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07-30-2010, 03:47 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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I e-mailed Delmar earlier this week and still have received no response about the missing 2009 data
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08-03-2010, 02:56 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Sprint E/L info from track download data
Okay, this is somewhat old school-developed data. I used 1 second = 5 lengths and computed E/L's for dirt and turf sprints using 3rd fraction par times (par = 85 pts) as follows:
5f 12.2 seconds 5.5f 18.6 seconds 6f 25.0 seconds 6.5f 31.6 seconds 7f 38.0 seconds Database did not have info to compute route E/L but you can tell they are pretty negative. I think so far maybe one Wire to Wire job has happened at 8 furlongs or more. Almost all wins come from more than a couple off the pace. Very sustained I believe. Min./Max. 90% Range Median 5.0 Turf -5/+21 0/+16 +9.0 5.5 Poly -13/+20 -6/+10 +1.0 6.0 Poly -19/+24 -10/+13 (67% are over 0) +1.5 6.5 Poly -19/+18 -13/+9 -1.0 7.0 Poly -17/+13 -13/+12 -3.0 Used as a guide, can help eliminate potential contenders from either end of the spectrum and might help point out place and show only types. |
08-03-2010, 08:37 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
Correction to E/L Info due to operator error
5.0 Turf
Min./max: -5/+15; 90% Range: -2/+15 5.5 Poly Min./max: -13/+13; 90% Range: -9/+7 6.0 Poly Min./max: -19/+14; 90% Range: -9/+10 6.5 Poly Min./max: -19/+12; 90% Range: -13/+8 7.0 Poly Mn./max: -17/+11; 90% Range: -13/+4 |
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