"Software matchers"

[RichieP]

Hat Helpers:
1) In 5.5f races pay close attention to the horse's performances in 5.5f races.
(This has been posted months back in the "Hat Check" and something he taught me a year ago).

2) We are only going to bet on FAST horses for the win. ( Software reflects this in a couple of ways:
a) Total energy
b) Tpr
c) Ap (average pace)

[RichieP]

Step 1 - Project pace using adjusted data and POSITIONAL running styles.

I would STRONGLY suggest working races like this at least at the start where early horse (s) can be identified to project a pace from. This is an IDEAL situation in my opinion.

This race we have the 2,3,5 as the horses who are going for and wanting the lead looking at the 5.5f lines.

so we check mark the lines and look at the adjusted screen showing the 1c and 2c paces of them.

Notice how close they are to one another please
1c - 22.4 to 22.8
2c - 46.2 to 46.4

Now with RDSS these numbers are in tenths shown. We have all 3 horses within 2 fifths at the 1c and all 3 within ONE fifth at the 2c.

A gut feeling of this race having a chance to go "other than early" after seeing the above early matchup sets in.

ESPECIALLY if the steps that will follow brings us a FAST "other than early".
1) He has to be FAST
2) has to be FAST against today's PROJECTED PACE.

The work we have just done above will take care of contender/line selection man. You will be amazed. KEY is having early horses to project from ok?

screenshots of the 3 early (Positional) horses showing lines marked and then the 3 of them together on the adjusted screen ( where we set our proj pace range)

[VoodooFan]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Hat Helpers:
1) In 5.5f races pay close attention to the horse's performances in 5.5f races.
(This has been posted months back in the "Hat Check" and something he taught me a year ago).

Can you display the location of this thread ? Thanks. VoodooFan

[mufasa]

Rich, where do you find AP (average pace) in the RDSS output? I know you are about to explain how to match utilizing adjusted velocity FPS numbers so please explain what is it that the velocity numbers are showing now (RDSS or Spec 160). I know most of the captions but just to be on the same page can you define F1, F2, F3, SC, and TS. It is also important to know if the given velocity numbers are for the horse on the lead at the time or for the horse in question, and last but certainly not least how do we calculate the measurement of lengths behind with these FPS numbers?

Thanks,

Robert

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by mufasa

Rich, where do you find AP (average pace) in the RDSS output? I know you are about to explain how to match utilizing adjusted velocity FPS numbers so please explain what is it that the velocity numbers are showing now (RDSS or Spec 160). I know most of the captions but just to be on the same page can you define F1, F2, F3, SC, and TS. It is also important to know if the given velocity numbers are for the horse on the lead at the time or for the horse in question, and last but certainly not least how do we calculate the measurement of lengths behind with these FPS numbers?

Thanks,

Robert

Robert,
the AP read is a reference to folks using other software packages such as Synergism. This is something that can be done using any of the various packages out there. I wanted to be inclusive and respectful of them as they too are very strong programs.

F1 = fraction1
F2 = fraction 2 or "turn time"
F3 = fraction 3
SC = second call
TS = I really don't know

Regarding FPS numbers and how to calculate how far behind they are honestly I do NOT know. I never was one of "those guys" man.

In the race we are working looking at the first call it appears about .50 FPS = 1 length (check it out by comparing the adjusted fractional times on the 3 and 5 with their corresponding FPS reads "Mu". Works out to a "t"). Maybe now we know?

The ONE thing I do know relating to FPS velocities is this: ANY early horse who has a one point or more advantage at the FIRST call and is fast is a serious danger to win the race. 61.20 vs 60.10 as an example.

Having said that we can use adjusted fractional times as contender/line selection.

I don't think we have to worry bout being like ultra precise with these FPS reads. I want to use them to make sure the horse I am betting
1) is FAST
2) is fast against TODAY'S projected pace
3) does NOT have to come from another area code (relative to TODAY'S matchup) to win the race.

I will finish the race in a few. Jammed up with housecleaning here preparing for winter. I apologize.

Richie

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by VoodooFan

Can you display the location of this thread ? Thanks. VoodooFan

Voodoo,
It was a race Jim had won at Calder he posted up a long while ago in the Hat Check.

he went 2 days ago to the simulcasting. We spoke after and he gave me 6 races to work. One of them was a 5.5f race and he AGAIN told me (after I had gone deep to find FAST 5.5f lines on the winner $19.40. There was good reason to go deep as his last race he fought for the first 2 calls man) ) " That is what you are supposed to do Rich".

I think it has something to do with the timing or gate placement of these races Voodoo. I will follow up with Hat and let you know.

Richie

[mufasa]

Rich, no need to apologize you have done as usual a great job in answering my questions. When you get a chance, after all of your house cleaning, etc. this MU lesson we are about to embark on has nothing to do with lets say BLBL outputs or best Perceptor pace lines or other similar Sartin program requirements---right?

This is just about using The Match Up via adjusted velocity ratings in I assume acceptably selected “power lines.” I ask this question because as stated in another post (The MU Newsletter) I have had a hard time when mixing and matching the MU selection vs. the BLBL selections. That is if I decide to go with my understanding of the best MU choice the BLBL top choices come in and if I decide to go with the BLBL choices the would have been MU selections win instead. The old “could have should have.”

This is a tough game that we play but it is especially frustrating when you talk yourself out of a winner because you are using different methodologies with different top choices.

Thanks,

Robert

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Robert,
the AP read is a reference to folks using other software packages such as Synergism. This is something that can be done using any of the various packages out there. I wanted to be inclusive and respectful of them as they too are very strong programs.

TS = I really don't know
Richie

AP = Total Energy (close enough)
TS = total distance / adjusted final time (Total or True Speed)

Ted

[RichieP]

Step 2 - Contender/line selection

Let's pick lines around our projected range established by the Positional early runners

horse 1 - line 3 fits like a glove
horse 2 - already selected
horse 3 - already selected
horse 4 - last line fits like a glove
horse 5 - already selected
horse 6 - no line - destroyed in 5.5f tandem with the 4 and 5. also a deep closer. Best 5.5f rating from three tries is a 70. OUT
horse 7 - 2 tries at 5.5f. Horror show. OUT

[RichieP]

horse's 8-9-10-11

No line for any of them. LOOK at their performances at 5.5f. Either got destroyed in tandem with our contenders or simply are slow.

OUT