How looking back on lost races can mess with our “intuition” – Part II

[mamojica]

Way back in September 2006, Richie started a thread with the above title. Every aspiring matcher should read it. When I started matching a few months ago, I religiously followed his advice. I kept the past performances of the races in which I selected the winner, and shredded the pp’s of the races which I lost.

Unfortunately, my curiosity got the best of me. I started looking through races that I lost. I didn’t spend a lot of time on them, but I did re-read my notes and looked again at the race winners. I would spend 5 or 10 minutes at most, and then I would shred the pp’s.

Five or 10 minutes was all that was needed. All of a sudden, I started second guessing myself. Things I was sure of before I became uncertain about afterward. I wasn’t as confident in my wagers. And, as a result of ignoring good advice, I started a losing streak. Whether it was for real at the track or for practice at home, I couldn’t pick a winner for a couple of weeks.

It was my own fault. I knew I was being naughty. I was only taking a peek (just like an adolescent youth looking at a hidden stash of Playboy magazines). But it messed with my head. Lesson learned. For the past week or so, I have been running to the shredder to turn the pp’s of lost races into confetti.

Things turned around for me today. I played the first nine races at Belmont and won four of them. No big payouts, just between $4.50 and $6.60. But it was a needed boost to my confidence.

Why shouldn’t we go back and see what we did wrong in the races we lose? First of all, how do we know we did anything wrong? For example, today I lost two bets by less than a length. In the first race, I bet #3 Irish Majesty, who battled for the lead for the last 8th of a mile, only to lose by half a length. In the ninth, I bet #6 Fluke, and he was caught in the last 16th and lost by three-quarters. Did I do anything wrong in either race? I don’t think so. As they say in NASCAR, it was just one of them racing deals.

I hope all beginning matchers follow this bit of advice from Jim Bradshaw and RichieP. If you must go back, study what you did right in the races you win. Don’t try to figure out what went wrong in the races you lose. It messed with my head and will probably mess with yours.

Regards,
Marc

[mikesal57]

Hi Marc....

Your totaly right ....Yes...we all do go over and find out what was done wrong...

But can u really say its "wrong"

There are some aspects of the match-up that we forgot or better, dont believe it will happen that way..

For example...a "tandem" horse beats you ..like he did in the PP's, but you didnt think he do it again..

Another...You bet a speed horse, but you forget he needs open lengths to win

lastly you bet horses that always come from "mars" to win...

yes this often happened to me at first...but I needed to know so that It wont again..

The beginners need to read,read,read, ...then practice,practice,practice

gl

mike

p.s.- Hope those Playboy magazines stayed under the bed and didnt go to the shredder with the PP's by mistake

[mamojica]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

There are some aspects of the match-up that we forgot or better, dont believe it will happen that way..

For example...a "tandem" horse beats you ..like he did in the PP's, but you didnt think he do it again..

Another...You bet a speed horse, but you forget he needs open lengths to win

You're right. But from my personal experience, the way to reinforce these things is by re-reading the Match-Up book and Hat Check forum, rather than by reviewing lost races. I was doing much better before I let my curiosity get the best of me and I started looking at races that I lost. I stopped following good advice and got burned.

Regards,
Marc

[Vinnie]

I hope that you are doing well? I read your post and I hope that you don't mind me adding my two cents. You know something, you are going to "lose races". Everyone is going to lose races! Even the Greatest handicapper in the world "if there ever was such a thing"? I don't believe there ever has been is going to lose races. I have had so many days where I am playing the PIC 4 or any other form of wager where I will win three in a row, and Bam, I get beat by a nose in the fourth race, often at a price to boot. Did I get beat because I handicapped the race wrong? Probably not. It just wasn't my day to get that fourth race in the sequence. That is the way that I have always looked at it anyhow. I have always looked at it as pretty solid handicapping when my contender(s) in a race are getting beat in the final jump on a given race. It could be because of traffic that was encountered while entering the stretch to make that final timely run, or it could have been any number of other things that a horse encountered during the trip around the oval on that particular race day that somehow managed to produce a negative result for that individual race. I was pretty much all over that race, but, I just got beat. You know how the saying goes, there is only one way to win a race, and that is by crossing the wire before all of the other participants. As a matter of fact in that race you mentioned, I really liked the #6 Fluke to possibly take the race right up on the front end, however, I also liked the #1 Baletti to come up and get him late in case he faultered even a bit. As it turned out this was a good call as #1 Baletti came on late and caught him by nearly a length at the wire and they finished 1-2 for a nice $2 Exacta of $102.50.

Don't let yourself dwell too much on that last race if the outcome was a negative one. Move forward to the next one and crush that race.
Keep doing what has made you successful, and when you lose, forget about that race and move on to the next one.

Like Michael Pizzola, at least I believe that this quote can be attributed to him once said "Some Will, Some Won't, So What"; Next"!! Some will run like you project them to. Some won't run like you projected they will in today's race. So What! Forget about that race that doesn't pan out as you thought or projected that it would. Next! Move onward and upward to the next race and do what you know makes you successful with a renewed vigor and positive outlook and approach while at the same time maintaining a clear and open mind.

Good Skill to you Marc, and all the BEST!

Vinnie

[mamojica]

Originally Posted by Vinnie

I hope that you are doing well?

I'm doing OK. I'm happy with my progress so far. When I started using the Match-up almost 3 months ago, I began with a 7 or 8 race losing streak, but then I started winning some races, which was encouraging. Since then I'm doing better than breakeven. Not enough to retire, but enough to convince me that this is something to keep working on. And I frequently find myself saying "this stuff really works!"

Originally Posted by Vinnie

I read your post and I hope that you don't mind me adding my two cents. You know something, you are going to "lose races". Everyone is going to lose races!...

...As a matter of fact in that race you mentioned, I really liked the #6 Fluke to possibly take the race right up on the front end, however, I also liked the #1 Baletti to come up and get him late in case he faultered even a bit. As it turned out this was a good call as #1 Baletti came on late and caught him by nearly a length at the wire and they finished 1-2 for a nice $2 Exacta of $102.50.

Don't let yourself dwell too much on that last race if the outcome was a negative one....

Thanks for your concern. Actually, I found the results of those two close losses to be encouraging. I had been a little down in the dumps because of my long losing streak, but I had stopped looking at lost races. I lost the first couple at Belmont yesterday, but I felt good because at least my horses were showing up. It's hard to explain, but they were losing the same way the horses lost when I was having my best results (if that makes any sense). Anyway, I felt that I was going to win soon, that I was getting back on track. I know the wins that I had weren't big prices, but at least I was winning.

Originally Posted by Vinnie

Good Skill to you Marc, and all the BEST!

Thank you, and same to you!

Regards,
Marc

[Vinnie]

Thanks for the reply Marc.

Have a Terrific day and week.

Good Skill and all the Best to you Always.

Vinnie