Saturday 4/27 - - - HAW 2nd

[PeteC]

This is a bread and butter claimer from Hawthorne with easily identifiable early runners for anyone who wants to match. All the best to everyone today...

[lone speed]

Good Morning Pete...

Thanks for putting up the race....

It looks like we have about 4 early pace runners:

1A) Trickeroy
5) Papasote-3year old versus older
7) Most Distinct
9) Runningout Of Cash--

#9 Runningout of Cash seems to be best of the early and owns the best early fractions from the last paceline. There doesn't seem to be a strong closer in this field. I will give it another look...

[Capcondo]

The 8 Bogie Man Joe is scratched

[PeteC]

Good morning Lone Speed-

I see it pretty much the same way. I have the 7 and 9 as the two best early and I feel that one of them will win. It is tough for me to separate those two. I also agree that the closers do not figure to make up enough ground late.

[Capcondo]

Nice Race Pete. Thanks for putting it up.

You're right. There is a lot of early speed here. I don't think anyone will get the lead from the 9. Other earlies are the 5,6, and 7. I will toss those three. I think the pace will go 22.2 in the first quarter with the 9 in the lead.

The 1 and 3 are slow. The 10 will try and pass everyone in the field. I'll toss those three.

I'm left with the 4 and the 9. The 9 is a need to lead type who needs a 2.5L lead against a 22.3. I don't think he'll get it. I'm going to ignore the maiden win against a 21.3. This leaves me with the 4 who ran credibly off a layoff, has won against a 21.4 from the fifth position, and won from the 2nd position against a 22.2 in his maiden.

The 4 is my choice.

Good Luck.

Tim

[lone speed]

quick match-up analysis:

I narrowed the race down to two horses; the #1A Trickeroy over the #9 Runningout Of Cash. There are quite a few speed types in this match-up but there are no strong closers. The best closer scratched out of this race.

Good skills

[Bill V.]

Good call on the Tim

I was not sure about this race I thought the 9 looked good

here is the winner

[Mr.Pagine]

Tim,

Nice pickin in the 2nd at HAWTHORNE today.

Good Punting!!

[PeteC]

Tim nails it!!!! Nice job man....

[Capcondo]

I didn't see it in this race when I matched it. But when the FPLR (fastest pace last race) is also a tandem, the winner frequently comes out of that race.

In this race, the 4 and the 6 were both out of the FPLR. As well, they both maintained or improved their position from the 1st to the 2nd call which is a positive sign. The exacta 4 and 6 paid $97.00 on a $2 bet. I don't ever play exactas so I wouldn't have had this one. The 6 was 21/1 in the win pool.

Like anything, this doesn't work every time; nothing does. But it's worth watching for.

Tim