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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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08-03-2018, 11:21 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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DaisyCutter Handicap
This is not a red board I WORKED THIS RACE but I was not feeling well
today and slept through it. This is the 7th race today at DEL Mar It is the Daisycutter Handicap The high weights in this race seemed not much of an issue as nobody really stands out. I will post the PP's and my comments but not the readouts till later If you want to work the race on your own |
08-03-2018, 11:27 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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in the mean time
Here is the BLBL
It is old school look for you if you're curious - no hides or separations of contenders. I will show my readout breakdowns later. What do you think ? Good Skill Bil |
08-04-2018, 12:39 AM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Horses
1,2,3,4,5
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08-04-2018, 12:40 AM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Horses
6 7 8 9
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08-04-2018, 08:15 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Morning Bill!
I just worked the race over coffee and landed on the #9, was looking for 3/1 or better to bet saw he went off at 7/2 so definitely a bet and LOSS. I hope you are feeling better, we cant wait to see you in a couple of weeks! Karen sends her love
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
08-04-2018, 11:00 AM | #6 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Contenders
Rich I
I have the 9 as a win contender After a look, a little closer and got a message I decided to go with the 6 and 7 My first bet would be the 7 at 15/1 ML 2 reasons I chose the 6 over the 9 1 the fact that the 9 has never run a plus race against older horses Next was the distance She ran 3rd at DMR as a 2-year-old The SA hill horses have been doing well at DMR if they had a + race in the past at DMR's turf course. She has made her mark at 6.5 and 6 furlongs I would have to forgive the 104 days layoff She has done very well after layoffs in her past and she has excellent workouts The 6 has run 2 plus turf sprints against older horses She ships in so I have no DMR lines to race She has 2 good workouts since the last race only 61 days ago. My choices 6 and 7 Since I am not betting the 9 to win, the 7 moves up into the top 3 RX2 |
08-04-2018, 01:22 PM | #7 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
You’re correct, Bill. The high weights do not play a part in this handicap race. The idea in handicap races is to isolate the top 3 (possibly 4) high weighted horses. In this race there are 6 horses among the 3 high weights. Eliminations The #4 and #5 are eliminated for having a ML =>20/1 The #1 is eliminated for having not run in the last 90 days The #9 is eliminated for having not run in the last 90 days AND, as an additional handicapping note, today’s race is its’ first time against older horses. The #2 and #3 are eliminated as they do not have a qualifying race in the past 90 days. Remaining contenders #6 – last line, a + race #7 – last line, a + race #8 – last line, a (+) race where it gained ground between the 1st and 2nd calls to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call. Conclusion I don’t know how that contender and line selection works out in RDSS or any other program. However, with only 3 contenders, if you are playing two horses and/or playing horses based on odds, it would be hard to miss this winner.
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08-04-2018, 03:08 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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great hit guys and nice workup Bill!!!
Neil hope you are doing great man.
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08-04-2018, 03:39 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Pembroke Pines, FL
Posts: 170
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Thanks Richie. Everything is going very well. Lots of big prices this year thanks mainly to the stability of the FTL guidelines and a more consistent wagering approach. I haven't been to the Spa since the day Easy Goer broke his maiden but I will be there in spirit!!
Neil |
08-04-2018, 04:10 PM | #10 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Excellent work
Thank you FTL and Rich for your work
Congratulation, Neil that is a really nice score The exacta was sweet too You diligence to FTL's guidelines really pay off Maybe you can join us next year at the Spa good skill Bill |
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