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03-29-2007, 04:10 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Bullhead City Az
Posts: 921
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Wagercapping made my day
Aqu0329 race 7
SPEC160 5 horses in the prgm and all had a bal of 6 top horse # 4 @ 1/5 2nd horse # 6 @ 6/1 3rd hoese # 1 @ 21/ Bet 60% on # 6 Bet 40% on # 1 across the board. $45.20 $14.80 $18.60 Why didn't I put it all on the win? If I could kiss SPEC160 I would. Froggy |
03-29-2007, 04:26 PM | #2 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Quote:
Terrific hit Froggy! Keep hammering away at them man! Richie
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03-29-2007, 04:31 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Bullhead City Az
Posts: 921
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WOW
Did it again in the 8th race. the top 3 horses were all 2/1 or under so I put two small wagers on the 4th and 5th ranked horses. #5 paid $44.80 to win Some day I'm going to cash out of youbet and have a party. Froggy |
03-29-2007, 04:36 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 992
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Terrific hit froggy! Gotta love it when the longshots are coming in and you have them on your readouts.
Since I am not an old time Sartinite, did the methodology discuss situations like the second you presented, where say tier 1 and tier 2 are favorites and tiers 3 and 4 are long shots, when do you play the long shots, when do you play the favorites, and when do you pass? If someone could point me to a tape or follow-up that discusses this in depth, that would be great. Jim |
03-29-2007, 04:37 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Bullhead City Az
Posts: 921
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the #5 choice was the #6 at the track.
Please excuse me as I am a little excited. Froggy |
03-29-2007, 06:07 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Bullhead City Az
Posts: 921
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Jim,
I am an old type Sartinite. I started with Phase III and it worked. I have been away from racing for several years and am just back at it for about 2 months, since I got SPEC160. I only have FOLLOW UPs #70 & #88 left and they are getting dog eared. So here goes on page 4 of #70 Doc explains what he does in his sort of confusing way. I used to be focused on the top two in the BL/BL. I struggled but survived doing it that way. I have gotten away from that now that I have records several hundred races to look back on and know where my winners are. I try to concentrate on the top 3 or 4 horses and hide or ignore those that are less than 2/1. When the BL/BL says that a horse should be 3/1 and the morning line is 5/1 but his actual odds are 7/2 I try to look elswhere. When the favorites win I normally wouldn't have them. They loose 2/3rds of the time and when that happens I will have the winner better than half of the time. But when the favorites are coming home I get DEPRESSED. Today at Aqu. was a good example. I lost the first five in a row. It didn't seem like it was my day. Then I hit the 6th, 7th and 8th ( $10.00, 45.20, 44.80). By then I was too exited to even do the 9th. You are not trying to pick the winner but bet those that have a good shot at being there relative to the odds line from BL/BL. I put five horses in where possible I have the winner in the top 4 about 75% of the time. Of that 75% #1 horse wins about 40% of the time usually at a low mutual. #2 and #3 win about 35% with a much better mutual. #4 wins about 25%. #5 seldom wins. These are my records of my way that I do the races. I hope this explains a little about what wagercapping is about and how I do it. Froggy |
03-29-2007, 06:34 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 992
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Hi Froggy,
Thanks for taking the time and sharing. I appreciate it. That is not unlike how I have approached my contenders for many years. I have done well, but I certainly have my ups and downs. The downs are largely attributable to when the first and second public betting choices win at a higher rate than normal. I have found my better success comes on the turf and in maiden claimers. Seems at the tracks I play the favorite wins less in these type of races. I was wondering if Sartin or any of his followers arrived at similar conclusions based on the type of race or some other factor (like soft favorite 5/2 or more), etc. Again thanks for taking the time to share your experience. Jim |
03-29-2007, 07:52 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 708
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right there third.
th race - Aqueduct - March 29, 2007 Pgm Horse Win Place Show 1 Karakorum Thunder 45.20 14.80 18.60 8 Bird of Play 10.40 16.00 3 Thunder Minister 22.20
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