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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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09-20-2017, 01:48 AM | #61 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
It is true that the pace of the race can vary between 7 furlongs and 1 mile races and that is enough reason to not mix the two distances. CONSISTENCY is the key.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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09-20-2017, 10:27 AM | #62 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Quote:
Now, would mixing 7F and 1M distances at Gulfstream be ideal? According to my experience and par times, no! This could very well be a function of run-up (Gulfstream was re-built before the 2005 winter season, which was when they expanded the old 7F chute to accommodate the 1M distance). They just seem to run wackier time-wise than their 7F counterpart. Now, if you're comparing these 1-turn distances across other similar tracks with that type of structure (CD, AP are the others that I can think of off-hand), then the safe bet IMO would be to not mix the 7F lines with 1M lines and vice-versa. All things are NOT equal at that point. This leads to another question: If 1-turn 1M (or longer) races are technically non-comparable to their 2-turn counterparts, do you mix those races out of necessity? Or do you hold steadfast and assign no line to the 1-turn horse entering the 2-turn race with no recent (<90 days) 2-turn lines? This situation rears its head at SAR and AQU, when horses running 1M/1 1/16M/1 1/8M lines at BEL now appear around 2 turns at those two tracks. In most cases using your guidelines steadfast, it is going to leave a few (if any) out-of-town runners (more the case at SAR) with lines, while many of the NY locals will have no line until they have run over the track at the 2-turns. The reality however, is that the NY locals tend to win these races more often than not, despite "stretching out" to 2-turns. One last note: Unless it's apples for apples, or I simply have no other turf line to use, I refuse to rate those asinine "7 1/2F" Gulfstream turf races that are closer to 1 1/16M after run-up and rail settings than a true 7 1/2F. Why? They simply don't mix well with other turf route distances either at GP or anywhere in general. I was able to mentally downgrade a favorite off a GP 7 1/2F turf line at Saratoga, which ended up putting me on a $17 winner with a "normal" turf paceline. Like Bill V. and Shoeless Jeff said, we all appreciate the insight and discussion that you offer! Last edited by Jeebs; 09-20-2017 at 10:30 AM. |
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09-20-2017, 11:53 AM | #63 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Jeebs:
With TrackMaster run up distances are accounted for whereas with Bris they aren't so depending on what your using makes a difference on those crazy 7.5 F races at GP. Sartin has its own formula for adjusting cutbacks and stretch outs, generally 6 1/5's which has to adjust for turns & deceleration etc. The old Ray Taulbot's adjustment I learned was that he used and recommended was 7 points (speed rating) for two turn adjustments and 3 points for one turn adjustments. This was to get a correct variant. Adjustments make sense as horses have to slow down to run a turn or centrifugal force takes them wide to lose lengths on a turn.(more or less depending on the sharpness of the turn and banking) NY tracks tend to have more sweeping turns and not as sharp as a Pimlico. With Taulbot these were adjusted to the speed rating or 1 length. Now I admit that an a adjustment by Sartin or Taulbot would be much more accurate for beaten lengths if considered by the actual distance being measured. However it makes absolutely no difference at all what one uses as long as it applied consistently. I have always used 3 points or 3 lengths per turn adjusted to a turn eliminated or additionally has to be negotiated. Try that for Bris adjustments or on your Par charts to see if that solves your problem. Mitch44 |
09-20-2017, 08:01 PM | #64 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,153
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FTL,
First off thank you very much for taking the time to write that up. If there is no excuse for the last line and the horse doesn't have a "+" or "(+)" races do you throw it out Also for 90 day rule have you found where you get a good percentage by narrowing the days down. Also how do you handle horses dropping way down from last race |
09-21-2017, 03:39 AM | #65 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
My first question would be, “why is it dropping way down?”. Shouldn’t we look back at the horse’s second race back and see what level it ran for? Perhaps the second race back is at the same or similar level as today and the last race the horse was just moved way up. Below is the horse that won the race Richie put up. Last race was a 15,000 claiming race. Today’s race is a 7,500 claiming race. That is several class levels lower. Should we throw it out? NO. The second race back was a winning race for 5,000 claiming. Today’s race is just one level up from that. Last race was at the wrong distance. Last race was the first time over the track at the current meet. Last race was at a level too high for the horse. There are multiple reasons to look back a line. Take a good look at this horse’s lifetime PP’s. They are all there. There are two layoffs, one for 358 days and the other for 173 days. Take notice that the horse won first time out at Churchill Downs in a Maiden Special Weight race. It didn’t win again until a couple of years later in a $5,000 claiming race. A COUPLE OF YEARS? It raced at age 2, age 3 and age 4. In 3 racing years it only raced 9 times? Why do you think that happened? I don’t own the horse and I don’t train the horse, but my money would be on this horse having injuries. Why else would it have been laid off for almost 6 months and a year? This is a perfect example of how a promising 2 year old at Churchill Downs ends up in a $5,000 claiming race at Remington Park or any other low level track.. My point is, read the horses PP’s. Many times the answer to your question is right there in front of you. When you encounter a horse that is dropping way down, more than likely the horse doesn’t have a + or (+) race you would accept, therefore you would throw it out anyway drop or no drop. When you encounter a horse dropping way down that does have a + or (+) it will probably get bet off the board, in which case you wouldn’t bet it anyway. Look at the horse’s lifetime record. Is it 1 for 25, 2 for 40 or some other terrible record? Does it have a bunch of 2nd’s and 3rd’s? It is likely the horse’s’ connections are desperate to win a race with the horse and they don’t care if they lose it.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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09-21-2017, 08:43 PM | #66 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,153
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FTL
I like your 90 day rule, I remember way back when using Larry Voegele using 15 days as a cutoff which worked well at the time. Thanks Last edited by shoeless; 09-21-2017 at 08:46 PM. |
09-21-2017, 10:52 PM | #67 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
So I'm guessing you didn't need to GOOGLE... FORT MARCY!! lol
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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09-23-2017, 11:08 AM | #68 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,153
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FTL
Once you come up with your contenders will you then try to narrow the field down from those or just enter all in the program I have been studying your threads just follow the guidelines and picking contenders both very well done Have learned quite a bit from your posts and thanks Jeff |
09-23-2017, 07:46 PM | #69 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
Once you have your contenders enter them into the program and let it do the work. Keep in mind that as you looked at the race horse by horse, you should have taken note of things that may raise a red flag for you. I’m going to use the Pennsylvania Derby Bill V put up today as an example. Naturally, the numbers 3,6,9 and 10 horses are eliminated due their ML being 20/1 or higher. All other horses have both a race and a + or (+) line in the last 90 days. Now, horse #2, the horse’s ML (12/1) is “ok” and it has a recent line (line 1, 57 days ago) that is a + race because the horse won. That race appears to be what is known as an “overnight” stake because of the low purse. But I couldn’t help notice the lower case “r” in front of the purse value of that race. If you are not aware of this, the lower case “r” means that was a “restricted” race. “Restricted” to what? Without doing a little investigating, I don’t know, but I do know it was NOT open to all comers as is today’s race. Here is an example. Each year, around Halloween, PARX runs a race called the “Halloween Handicap” or “Ghost Handicap” or some name like that, but it is a “restricted” race. What is the “restriction”?... only horses that are grey or roan are eligible. A “state Bred” race is also a “restricted” race, but it is not designated that way because it is already designated a “State Bred” race, so you know the race is “restricted” to horses bred in a specified state. At any rate, is this horse really a contender today when facing G1 horses on an open basis? I don’t think so! I enter it, but in the back of my mind it is a non-contender. Here are the screen shots from ENERGY on the race. Sorry, no good prices on this one.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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09-23-2017, 10:02 PM | #70 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Hi FTL
Thanks for your look at the Pennsylvania Derby
The last line for the horse was the Curlin Stakes Here are the conditions of that race Good Skill and thanks Bill |
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