Paddock obervation can be misleading with sample error - Pace and Cap

Tim Y · 11-01-2021, 05:10 PM

I was lucky enough to be mentored on may asects of horse function when I was a volunteer hot walker/groon. At their suggestions, I purchased several recognized video studies (by Bonnie Ledbetter and Joe Tackich among others) on how best to observe horses in the paddock as an adjunct to knowing who was ready to run that day or who to stay away from..

The results turned out to be just the opposite of what I thought. When I was really trying to coordinate what I saw, to the performance in the race that followed, I was surprised that the results DID NOT correlate very well. Thinking I was somehow doing something wrong, I had a few trainer friends observe the horses in the paddock and give me their opinion. STILL, even with their expertise, the long term outcome of racing competence to negative correlations of paddock observations, was NOT an accurate assessment of racing outcome.

What went wrong as this was a long standing idea backed up by lots of video evidence? SAMPLE ERROR was the reason.

What do you see when the horses first walk around the paddock? These animals have been standing in their stalls, only moving around the circumfernce of what rooon is availble, and then they come over to the paddock after only a few steps. When we then OBSERVE THEM in this UN-WARMED UP STATE, the joints, realtive to the time they load into the gate, are cooler and stiffer, with little change in the bloodflow to that area, the is no expasion of the joint capsule, which only oocurs with vasodialtion (which has not occured yet), SO we are observing a situation that ONLY occurs in that limited TIME PERIOD, not in the more limbered state that occurs during a warm up and at the gate.

As the horse cantors about, we no longer have ready visual access to the very things we observed in the paddock: walking short, the favoring of one leg over another, all signs of the physilogical changes in them that occurs AFTER wam ups as they are then usually on the other side of the race track.

What changes?

1)Passive/active warm-ups increase adenosine triphosphate turnover, which reinforces muscular functions, muscle cross-bridge cycling rate, and oxygen uptake kinetics, which significantly affects exercise performance. from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5833972/

SAME article above 2) Performing warm-ups increases muscle temperature and blood flow, which contributes to improved exercise performance and reduced risk of injuries to muscles and tendons. Stretching increases the range of motion of the joints and is effective for the maintenance and enhancement of exercise performance and flexibility, as well as for injury prevention.

3) Exercise has been shown to boost the production of synovial fluid, in essence helping to keep our synovial joints ‘well-oiled’. Science has now supported the theory that, contrary to popular belief, exercise can be protective for our joints, and the aforementioned secretion of synovial fluid plays a big part in promoting joint health.https://www.220triathlon.com/trainin...ise-affect-it/

4) When the body’s temperature rises, the tissues surrounding the joints loosen, increasing the range of motion. The rise in muscle temperature improves flexibility and increases the efficiency of movement during your workout. To raise body temperature, a warm up should include exercises that slowly increase the heart rate to circulate the blood around the body to the muscles and joints.
https://recreation.athletics.cornell...-body-exercise.

SO, the dilligent observations we attempted to correlate to racing perfomance that day, are the result of TEMPORAL SAMPLE ERROR, and do not represnt the final state of the horse's joints when loading into the gate. This data, while TRUE at the time observed, is just NOT what had changed by the time these horses load into the gate

ranchwest · 11-01-2021, 05:41 PM

I had a friend who was a professional focusing primarily on physicality. He watched the Takich video every day. Every day, so as not to forget anything or lose sight of important aspects.

Some of his knowledge rubbed off on me and I observed that one of the most important things to note was the changes from the walk to the paddock, to the paddock demeanor and the post time presence. It's often difficult to get a good look at the warm up and still get a wager in.

I learned that if I saw ANYTHING wrong, it was not a bet. Cuts or scrapes, loose poop, walking short, anger, tail not eager, lack of muscleing, odd equipment. A big X on my notes.

Tim Y · 11-01-2021, 05:52 PM

This has a lot to do with track specificity as well. NOT universal

ranchwest · 11-01-2021, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Y

This has a lot to do with track specificity as well. NOT universal

Yes, my friend learned that it was easier to find separation in appearance at smaller tracks.

11-01-2021, 05:10 PM	#1
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Paddock obervation can be misleading with sample error I was lucky enough to be mentored on may asects of horse function when I was a volunteer hot walker/groon. At their suggestions, I purchased several recognized video studies (by Bonnie Ledbetter and Joe Tackich among others) on how best to observe horses in the paddock as an adjunct to knowing who was ready to run that day or who to stay away from.. The results turned out to be just the opposite of what I thought. When I was really trying to coordinate what I saw, to the performance in the race that followed, I was surprised that the results DID NOT correlate very well. Thinking I was somehow doing something wrong, I had a few trainer friends observe the horses in the paddock and give me their opinion. STILL, even with their expertise, the long term outcome of racing competence to negative correlations of paddock observations, was NOT an accurate assessment of racing outcome. What went wrong as this was a long standing idea backed up by lots of video evidence? *SAMPLE ERROR was the reason.* What do you see when the horses first walk around the paddock? These animals have been standing in their stalls, only moving around the circumfernce of what rooon is availble, and then they come over to the paddock after only a few steps. When we then OBSERVE THEM in this UN-WARMED UP STATE, the joints, realtive to the time they load into the gate, are cooler and stiffer, with little change in the bloodflow to that area, the is no expasion of the joint capsule, which only oocurs with vasodialtion (which has not occured yet), SO we are observing a situation that ONLY occurs in that limited TIME PERIOD, not in the more limbered state that occurs during a warm up and at the gate. As the horse cantors about, we no longer have ready visual access to the very things we observed in the paddock: walking short, the favoring of one leg over another, all signs of the physilogical changes in them that occurs AFTER wam ups as they are then usually on the other side of the race track. What changes? 1)Passive/active warm-ups increase adenosine triphosphate turnover, which reinforces muscular functions, muscle cross-bridge cycling rate, and oxygen uptake kinetics, which significantly affects exercise performance. from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5833972/ SAME article above 2) Performing warm-ups increases muscle temperature and blood flow, which contributes to improved exercise performance and reduced risk of injuries to muscles and tendons. Stretching increases the range of motion of the joints and is effective for the maintenance and enhancement of exercise performance and flexibility, as well as for injury prevention. 3) Exercise has been shown to boost the production of synovial fluid, in essence helping to keep our synovial joints ‘well-oiled’. Science has now supported the theory that, contrary to popular belief, exercise can be protective for our joints, and the aforementioned secretion of synovial fluid plays a big part in promoting joint health.https://www.220triathlon.com/trainin...ise-affect-it/ 4) When the body’s temperature rises, the tissues surrounding the joints loosen, increasing the range of motion. The rise in muscle temperature improves flexibility and increases the efficiency of movement during your workout. To raise body temperature, a warm up should include exercises that slowly increase the heart rate to circulate the blood around the body to the muscles and joints. https://recreation.athletics.cornell...-body-exercise. SO, the dilligent observations we attempted to correlate to racing perfomance that day, are the result of TEMPORAL SAMPLE ERROR, and do not represnt the final state of the horse's joints when loading into the gate. This data, while TRUE at the time observed, is just NOT what had changed by the time these horses load into the gate __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

11-01-2021, 05:52 PM	#3
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	This has a lot to do with track specificity as well. NOT universal __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

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11-01-2021, 05:41 PM	#2
ranchwest Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 3,489	I had a friend who was a professional focusing primarily on physicality. He watched the Takich video every day. Every day, so as not to forget anything or lose sight of important aspects. Some of his knowledge rubbed off on me and I observed that one of the most important things to note was the changes from the walk to the paddock, to the paddock demeanor and the post time presence. It's often difficult to get a good look at the warm up and still get a wager in. I learned that if I saw ANYTHING wrong, it was not a bet. Cuts or scrapes, loose poop, walking short, anger, tail not eager, lack of muscleing, odd equipment. A big X on my notes.