La Mafia che paragona i cavalli da corsa

[Bill Lyster]

Richie:

When you speak of this positional gain are you referring to a pattern of consistent gain like 8-6-4-2, 7-5-3-2 or can the can pattern be more like 8-8-5-3, or 8-8-8-4 or are both of these types okay? Are there less desirable patterns of gain like perhaps 8-8-5-5 or like when a horse gives up a position like 9-6-7-3? Is going backward after a gain the kiss of death or do you just not give this kind of horse any energy points?


Patterns from Breeders Cup races today
Juvenile winner:7-6-4-1-1
Juvenile place: 5-5-7-4-2 (note regression from 5-7)

Sprint winner: 2-2-2-2 (another point to be asked later)
Sprint place: (2nd L -not the one I used) 8-8-3-3

Distaff winner: 3-3-2-2-2 (2nd line)
distaff placebefore DQ) 6-6-5-1-1

Classic Winner: (L3) 2-2-2-2-1
Classic Place: (L4) 3-4-4-1-1

When a horse is naturally near the lead the opportunity for position gain is limited, so what kind of guidelines keep these horses in the mix or allow them to gain energy points?

In the case of a dominant wire to wire type an increase in winning margin from stretch to finish might be considered a near parallel (yes?)

Thanks for your help

[Bill Lyster]

I worked a couple of races and have these questions:

1. Where do you apply the gained lengths, at the end of the call where they were gained or simply to the final time?

2. If a horse backs up do you deduct a point or is a backup such a bad thing that you might penalize the horse more for the backup? If he reverses course and gains after the loss does he get credit for the re-gain? In the event that the horse is still competitive after a positional loss, how do the losses and gains apply to the times for purposes of Matchup analysis?

Thanks,

Bill

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Richie:

When you speak of this positional gain are you referring to a pattern of consistent gain like 8-6-4-2, 7-5-3-2 or can the can pattern be more like 8-8-5-3, or 8-8-8-4 or are both of these types okay? Are there less desirable patterns of gain like perhaps 8-8-5-5 or like when a horse gives up a position like 9-6-7-3? Is going backward after a gain the kiss of death or do you just not give this kind of horse any energy points?


Patterns from Breeders Cup races today
Juvenile winner:7-6-4-1-1
Juvenile place: 5-5-7-4-2 (note regression from 5-7)

Sprint winner: 2-2-2-2 (another point to be asked later)
Sprint place: (2nd L -not the one I used) 8-8-3-3

Distaff winner: 3-3-2-2-2 (2nd line)
distaff placebefore DQ) 6-6-5-1-1

Classic Winner: (L3) 2-2-2-2-1
Classic Place: (L4) 3-4-4-1-1

When a horse is naturally near the lead the opportunity for position gain is limited, so what kind of guidelines keep these horses in the mix or allow them to gain energy points?

In the case of a dominant wire to wire type an increase in winning margin from stretch to finish might be considered a near parallel (yes?)

Thanks for your help

Bill
The #1 horse ( last line) in the Juvenile who's line you posted is the ONLY Winner's line shown that has move I described.

That line was ( 1c-2c-sc) - 6-4-1. Then he lost at the finish finishing 3rd.

Based on the proj pace and a race shape which should go " Other than early"
the horse now becomes a horse to seriously study the pp's on.

Key is considering these movers in races where " other than early" is the preferred style ok?

For clarity:
1) Early - is a race where a horse is projected to go WIRE TO WIRE.
2) Other than Early- ALL other races

Rich

[Bill Lyster]

Hey Richie: I'm old enough to remember Froggie or was it Buster Brown or both, now I am confused.

About the Juvenile - a real classic match up of west, mid west and east. I worked the race by hand and then tossed into speculator.

My contenders were the tandem of Stormello and Prinicipal Secret from their last at SA, the tandem of Street Sense, Great Hunter and Circular Quay from last race @ Keeneland and Scat Daddy from last at Bel.

so first the tracks: SA 8.5 f 3 yr best is 140.0, 8f = 133.4; Belmont's 8f = 132.1; and no one really knows what Keeneland's 8.5f is worth, but we think its a little slow.

If Scat Daddy had raced at 8.5f we wouldn't have this conversation, but he raced on the Bel 8f which is 8 ticks faster most due to the one turn. Scat Daddy presses and has some heart, but will he be close enuf to be a factor? I projected his 8.5f time to be 143 (without any adjust for the 1 turn mile). That made him look good final time wise with the CA invaders, but not terribly close to the pace. We know now that he should have been tossed.

For Matchup purposes my pace of race fractions were the fractions from CA race. In the future when east/west and middle get together I will temper my judgments of using the usually faster western times, but in this case I tossed the contenders into speculator and came up with Scat, Storm, Great, but even Spec showed Scat a long way off at 2nd call. Hiding Scat gets Great-Street-CQ as top 3 BL. So that part is history.

Back to Matchup using raw times with Scat out. You could make the argument that the SA horses won't run that fast and that the Keeneland horses won't run quite that slow, which kind of makes everything about equal.

So noting that Street closes 6-4-1, do you give him 2+3 units of energy extra or something else, and then where do you apply the units - to the fraction at the end of the gain - first 2 at 6f and a total of 5 at final time or just to the final time before you start considering the rest of the Matchup equation?

I realize that this might be the kind of race that you would pass because of lack of information or at least not enuf info to make a strong decision. But, assuming that the info we have is enuf info, I'm interested in the mechanics of the application of energy units.

If you give him +5 he gets pretty respectable in any light.

By the way I used this positional gain tip to handicap a couple of Hastings races from Sunday that were "Other than early". Besides reversing another tandem, the "energy boost by one horse with an 8-7-4 close made him a standout. Thanks for the tip. Now that I put that in writing it reminds me of one more question.

Your response was that street sense's pattern was the only I highlighted that met the gain criteria, where the gain was 6-4-1. Do you require a minimum gain from one segment to the other, like more than 1. Can you expand on that aspect if its relevant?

Thanks for your help. Race analysis has become something I look forward to more than ever and with these tools and your and The Hat's input I am really enjoying handicapping.


Bill

[Bill Lyster]

Richie:

Just curious. In the process where you described negative feelings about horses that had otherwise made it through your Matchup evaluation and then decided not to bet them, did you pass the race altogether or go back and re-evaluate the field and make a bet elsewhere?

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Richie:

Just curious. In the process where you described negative feelings about horses that had otherwise made it through your Matchup evaluation and then decided not to bet them, did you pass the race altogether or go back and re-evaluate the field and make a bet elsewhere?

Hi Bill

I just spoke with Jim about this 2 days ago.

Until 4 days ago I was simply passing the race.

Now I am taking the leap to tossing the horse and seeing if a bet now comes elsewhere.

Rich

[admin]

Hang in there The methodology is the work area
there are many tools in the shop
If you go see a concert and admire the expert piano
player You to maybe able to play well someday
It takes time and practice In this concert
really the only thing you need to do is "Play"
as best as you can and work to win just one more race
than yesterday
soon you will find your tool. or your key

Your friend
Bill