Bet Size when Betting more than 1 Horse

[classhandicapper]

In general I try to keep my best size as flat as possible to avoid mistakes. Typically, I bet one horse to win. However, sometimes when I really dislike a favorite and don't feel that I have a firm grip on the chances of each of the real contenders, I'll bet 2 or even 3 horses to win.

In the latter instance, a thing that's been bothering me for years is not knowing whether I am better off betting my usual unit on each horse I like or dividing the unit into 2 or 3 and putting the usual unit into the race in total.

If I bet my usual unit on each horse I feel like I may be putting more money into a race than I am comfortable with. But if I divide by 2 or 3 I feel like I'm not staying true my my flat betting and not having enough money on some of my potentially most lucrative opinions.

Any thoughts?

[mikesal57]

Did you ever think about ...just passing the race?

Dont just hide favorites!!! If they look good ..they mostly will be- and WIN

To take pot shots at a race and bet 2 -3 horses knowing that some or all could lose is a road to ruins.

I liked action too and to think that you can pick a winner in each race is just your ego talking and will destroy your bank roll in the end.
Look, there are 100's of races a day...be selective and just look for spots that you know that you have a shot...good luck

Mike

[classhandicapper]

I'm talking about situations where I DON'T like the favorite and feel confident I have a good overall investment. I just don't know how to size the bet.

[rmath]

Depending on your bet size that you normally make it is hard to say what you should do.
For example if you normally bet $50.00 to win on one horse, I would be very hesitant to bet $50.00 on two or three horses, but if my normal bet was $10.00
then I would bet $10.00 on two, and $7.00 on three.
My personal betting is $10.00 on each of two horses in a race, and I follow Doc's
guidelines of $20.00 per race.
Hope this helps.
rmath

[hansend]

I would make your bets based on return when this situation occurs.

Split them out (within your current betting amounts) so that the return you get from any of the winning bets will be about the same. It doesn't take a whole lot of time to figure out and you wont miss a good return when the odds are in your favor.

[holloway]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm talking about situations where I DON'T like the favorite and feel confident I have a good overall investment. I just don't know how to size the bet.

If you dont like the favorite and are sure he wont beat you ( for me thats 2 different things usually ) , you could always dutch your 2 choices, or if you think the favorite might beat your 2 choices sometimes i will dutch the 2 choices for profit and use the favorite as a breakeven. Something like 2 horses : A is 4-1 bet $10 B is 6-1 bet $8 return either $50 or $56 for an $18 bet.

using fav as a saver using the above odds. Fav is 5-2...bet $7 which brings total bets to $25 , so if the fav wins you breakeven, if either choice wins you double your money...if none come in then you should stop looking at my picks
ps: you could also reverse if you have 2 choices with 1 being a solid favorite that you really like and the other a longshot that you are worried about. Bet the favorite for profit and use the longshot as a saver. Neither are things i do everyday, just when a certain situation pops up.

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

In general I try to keep my best size as flat as possible to avoid mistakes. Typically, I bet one horse to win. However, sometimes when I really dislike a favorite and don't feel that I have a firm grip on the chances of each of the real contenders, I'll bet 2 or even 3 horses to win.

In the latter instance, a thing that's been bothering me for years is not knowing whether I am better off betting my usual unit on each horse I like or dividing the unit into 2 or 3 and putting the usual unit into the race in total.

If I bet my usual unit on each horse I feel like I may be putting more money into a race than I am comfortable with. But if I divide by 2 or 3 I feel like I'm not staying true my my flat betting and not having enough money on some of my potentially most lucrative opinions.

Any thoughts?

Hi CH,

Gambling math authority William Ziemba has stated that it's best to keep the sum of your bets within the limits of Kelly, which would translate for a flat-bet player to having all bets sum to your flat-bet amount or maybe a bit higher. If you flat-bet 2%, maybe you can go to 3% for three horses. However, I agree with much that Mike said about this. Very, very, few races have three overlaid horses. Possibly what Dick Mitchell described as a 'contentious' race, one with a high proportion of contenders, can be bet this way, but even then, you would really need for all your bets to be above 7-1 or so.

I don't want to stir the pot, given the current atmosphere on the site, but I think it bears saying - there is no mathematical reason for betting two horse per race. This was Doc Sartin's psychological ploy to enhance the self-esteem of players who wanted to feel like winners. In the 80s and 90s, this created few problems - if you read the Mark Cramer's piece you can see why this was so, good mutuels were much easier to come by - but those days are gone. As Andy Beyer has said, the game used to be like sharks playing against fish, now it's like sharks playing against sharks. This is why, as Mike says, you shouldn't blindly cover the favorite, if the numbers tell you it's legitimate.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[classhandicapper]

I typically only bet 2 horses when I think both are more likely to win than the favorite at greater odds. There's also usually enough complexity to the race that I don't feel I can pick which one is the better value. So to make my life easier I just play both. It doesn't happen too often, but it happens often enough to be an issue. I have played around with Dutching also, but even that doesn't seem like a perfect solution to me.

I think the problem is that I'm not psychologically ready to bet 3 times my usual bet size, but hate when I have 1/2 or 1/3 my usual bet on some long shot that wins for me. Instead of being happy about winning, it feels like being timid cost me money.

Maybe I should play my usual bet size on each of 2 horses, but only twice my usual bet size divided by 3 on the rare occasions I actually think there are 3 horses worth a bet.

[Dorianmode]

There are many publicly available dutching programs. One is at : http://www.bettinggenius.com/betting...ng-calculator/
You can enter any number of horses, 1, 2 or more. Often, I have 2 horses, and a third "maybe". If the 3rd is going off at a relatively high number, you can "tweak" the dutch, so the third acts as an "insurance" bet. The formulas for creating your own dutching program, (I have one in Excel, if anyone wants it), are in the early Follow Ups, (2,3). The one above is done in British Pounds, but who cares, numbers are numbers. You can set you total bet amount to whatever you like. I would also recommend the Huey Mahl articles in Follow Ups 2 ,3 (maybe more, I can't remember). They discuss the math of growing a bankroll, at the maximum efficiency. There is a MUCH more exact and efficient, and "correct" way to do the dutching than the 60/40 thing. There is also a graph with % amounts, as I recall, in those same articles, that can be printed out, (maybe laminated). Cheers.

[JimG]

Hi Classhandicapper,

To answer your question, on those occasions where I would bet two horses to win, and neither are the favorite, I split the one unit bet 50/50. On even rare occasions where three are involved, I would bet the one unit bet each 1/3.

Jim