Florida Derby

[alydar_ David]

Gulfstream Park -- Saturday, March 28, 2009 ~ Race 10

[Tim Y]

Unless Dunkirk improves A LOT this is a two colt contest:

Only Toby the Coal Man can move late, but will be too far back

[Tim Y]

the problem with Quality Road is right here in the climbing % median. Is this one able to rate? That is a requirement that first Saturday in May and this is NOT a good sign. A precocious baby can get away with it right up to 9 furlongs but not further. See the balance of E/EP overtaking the L/EP?

Theregoejojo is going up too but not as dramatically

[Ted Craven]

My wager (if any) will involve Theregoesjojo and Danger to Society in Win position (nod on Class to Danger over Stately); adding Quality Road and Stately Character somehow in an exacta combination. This presumes Quality will be offered at less than 5/2 with Jojo at 4-1 or greater. I don't care about Dunkirk.

Good luck to all!

Ted

[Bill V.]

4njbets is saying the 7 is scratched

Hopefully ( for me ) the 4 and the 2 will under 5/2 so I can pass the race These big races are not for me. See you at Philly and Delta

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

4njbets is saying the 7 is scratched

Hopefully ( for me ) the 4 and the 2 will under 5/2 so I can pass the race These big races are not for me. See you at Philly and Delta

Bill, I think Richie needs to give you a pep talk... Spec is a wonderful tool for the preps.... Over the last 4 years it has caught the winner on Top an avg of 40% of the time and in the top 2 60% of the time... Some big numbers too such as Da Tara in the Belmont paying 79 bucks. Using standard paceline selection...

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by jms62

Bill, I think Richie needs to give you a pep talk... Spec is a wonderful tool for the preps.... Over the last 4 years it has caught the winner on Top an avg of 40% of the time and in the top 2 60% of the time... Some big numbers too such as Da Tara in the Belmont paying 79 bucks. Using standard paceline selection...

Thanks Jim

You are so right about these races Funny thing I would not have even looked at the race but they can be very profitable
I had the winner and show horse right up top. But did not bet

Any chance to meet you at Saratog? I hope so
Good Skill
Bill

[Tim Y]

Was impressed a few weeks ago with Quality Road, but TODAY. He ran like Affirmed toying with the pace until it was time to move again late. Will be VERY interested in the % median today. If this one moved more evenly, it might translate to great things down the line. Dunkirk looked a bit of a rookie hanging, but he came from a long way back.

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Was impressed a few weeks ago with Quality Road, but TODAY. He ran like Affirmed toying with the pace until it was time to move again late. Will be VERY interested in the % median today. If this one moved more evenly, it might translate to great things down the line. Dunkirk looked a bit of a rookie hanging, but he came from a long way back.

Hi Tim

I don't know how close this comes but I figured it might be close
Using Spec 160 I edited a paceline ( horse 4) I edited the paceline
to what # 2 Quality ran today However we don't know what the track varient
was today if that changes anything?

anyway here are two reads based on what # 2 quality ran today
I used Horse # 4 because his line before editing was from GP at 9.0
furlongs as was todays race.

In my notepad tick comments, I show 1.5 beaten lenghts but that
is a mistake. When I edited the line I use .50 bl

[Tim Y]

If that holds true THIS one made a great step forward Saturday. A visually impressive move.