|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
Selections Post Your Picks - 1 race or a card |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
02-16-2012, 06:15 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 318
|
Hawthorne 02-18-2012
TOP 5 Apv-Class
TOP 5 contenders or less Races 1 thru 9 median energy profile = 68.35 === 8.318 fur. winners Race 1. contenders = 4-2-6-7-3 Top 5 Apv-Class = 1-6-7-5-(2-4) median energy profile = 70.65 === 5 fur. mdn. Race 2. contenders = 6-7-5-8-2 Top 5 Apv-Class = 6-7-5-2 median energy profile = 69.35 === 5.5 fur. winners Race 3. contenders = 4-5-6-7-8 Top 5 Apv-Class = 6-2-8-4-3 median energy profile = 69.70 ====5.5 fur. Mdn. Race 4. contenders = 3-9-10-11-13 Top Apv-Class = 13-11 median energy profile = 69.70 === 5.5 fur. Mdn. Race 5. contenders = 3-1-6-8 Top Apv-Class =3-8-6-5-1 median energy profile = 68.35 === 8.5 fur winners Race 6. contenders = 3-8-9-12-13 Top Apv-Class = 3-5-11-7-12 median energy profile = 68.80=== 6 fur. winners Race 7. contenders = 2-4-5-8-9 Top Apv-Class = 1-8-4-2-3 median energy profile = 68.80 === 6 fur. winners Race 8. contenders = 9-1-3-8-2 Top Apv-Class = 4-1a-3-7-2 median energy profile = 68.80 === 6 fur. winners Race 9. contenders = 4-6-3-10-11 Top Apv-Class = 11-9-10-3-5 see you at the cashier's window , good luck! BobC |
02-17-2012, 10:34 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
|
Good Luck Bob...
you know your going to have to explain how you get your contenders if they win.... Mike
__________________
Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
02-18-2012, 07:57 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 318
|
Contender Selection
Hello Mike
Not much explaining to do here. It was a day full of chalk and passed races. The exactas were nothing to brag about. Most of the races were unbalanced, hence few horses fit the distance models presented. I lost a few bucks and socialized a lot. The buffet was good, and all left with stomachs full and wallets slimmer Speaking of contender selection, i basically use the top 5 APV & Class plus ties. BobC |
02-19-2012, 08:38 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
|
AHHHH....BUFFET.....my favorite word
APV is self explanatory... How do you arrive at your contenders? Mike
__________________
Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
02-19-2012, 11:55 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 318
|
Contender Selection
Hello Mike . My first intention when handicapping a race is to eliminate horses
i feel, have no chance to Win. Lay-Off and rested horses. I start with the Lay-Off horses. 30 days or more away from racing. In order to qualify as a lay-off contender, the horse must show a win, or 2nd place finish after a lay-off period anywhere in it's PPs. It may qualify if it won at first asking as a Mdn. The 2nd place finish must be less than 2 lengths. If it has the win or 2nd place finish after a lay-off, it must then show a useable pace line within the last 180 days. Once i rid the race of obvious non-contenders for Win, it's time to check the remaining horses using the Match Up, or using the best line from the last 5 pp's in RDSS, or Val4 etc. I try to avoid making rules, I'd rather allow for exceptions. ps, use these guidelines on races 6,7,8, and 9 on the Hawthorne Saturday non-maiden races, and let me know if you feel they assist in saving time handicapping the races. BobC |
02-19-2012, 03:32 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 318
|
Hawthorne Race 8
Race 8 at Hawthorne Sunday 02-19-2012
median energy profile for the race is 68.80 % #1a non-win contender --- In for exotic line3 #1 win contender due to in the money 14 times out of 17 races. IN line1 #2 non-win contender ok after lay-off, but no pace line. In for exotic line 1 #3 non-contender due to no good races after a lay-off. ---OUT #4 non-win contender .shows good race after lay-off ---In for exotic line 1 #5 non-win contender. no pace line ----- IN for exotic line 3 #6 win contender . good race after lay-off --- IN line 1 #7 non-contender. no qualified race after lay-off----OUT #8 non-contender. no qualified race after lay-off ---OUT #9 win contender. qualifies after a lay-off --- IN line1 #1 median energy = 68.90 % # 6 median energy = 69.00 % # 9 median energy = 68.10 % My breakdown of the race Bob C Last edited by Bob Cochran; 02-19-2012 at 03:33 PM. Reason: left out word |
02-20-2012, 08:56 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
|
good going on the winner #9
questions: How do you consider a horse a "win-contender" ? check horse 7...he won last race but you say "out"
__________________
Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
02-20-2012, 12:44 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 318
|
Contenders from 02-19-2012 Rcae 8
Hello Mike.
The #7 horse won it's last race which equates to $5000 claimers. It's record is sparse and shows no qualified race after a lay-off. BobC |
02-20-2012, 01:06 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
|
PP's
It would be nice if one of you posted the PP's for this race so ALL can see what you are talking about.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
02-20-2012, 05:46 PM | #10 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
Quote:
"I start with the Lay-Off horses. 30 days or more away from racing. In order to qualify as a lay-off contender, the horse must show a win, or 2nd place finish after a lay-off period anywhere in it's PPs. It may qualify if it won at first asking as a Mdn. The 2nd place finish must be less than 2 lengths. If it has the win or 2nd place finish after a lay-off, it must then show a useable pace line within the last 180 days. Once i rid the race of obvious non-contenders for Win, it's time to check the remaining horses using the Match Up, or using the best line from the last 5 pp's in RDSS, or Val4 etc. I try to avoid making rules, I'd rather allow for exceptions." Bob, I understood your qualifications for layoff or rested horses, but based on the guidelines you set for races 6 through 9 on Hawthorne's saturday card I question how you made these horses contenders, all of whom were layoff horses, but which did not appear to meet what I interpreted as Very Strict qualifications. In race 6: horses 8 and 12 first two screen shots In race 7: horses 5, 8 and 9, 3rd -5th screen shots In race 8: horse 3, In race 9: horses 3 and 6 |
|
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Goals for 2012 | Bill V. | Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum | 2 | 01-01-2012 08:03 PM |
Saturday - Hawthorne - "E" Proj Pace | RichieP | Matchup Discussion | 22 | 12-19-2011 04:02 PM |
Hawthorne Sunday 8/2 | pktruckdriver | Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum | 0 | 08-01-2009 09:33 PM |
Hawthorne Notes | Charlie D | General Discussion | 1 | 03-06-2009 09:50 AM |
Hawthorne giant pick 6 carryover | RichieP | General Discussion | 34 | 12-29-2008 11:55 AM |