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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 01-18-2017, 09:13 PM   #1
Bill V.
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+ 0 and (+) questions

I apologize to those who have asked these questions, Its been awhile
but I have been kind of involved with betting and some things on the home front outside of racing. anyway here are the questions


"You said you use the phase 1 readouts with them can you explain in
more detail "

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I would like to use this horse #8 This is a winner from 1/17/17

I have marked the pace lines with the + 0 and (+) notations.

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Old 01-18-2017, 09:36 PM   #2
Bill V.
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First

In regards to using the last line.
I think you are quoting a post of mine.
The quote might have come from somebody else but i agree with it.

Look at the last line for Retire. This is a dud race, a zero 0.
I use the + lines of all the lines in the PP'S to see patterns on the EP/LP sticks.
Look how unbalanced the line is red which means early.

I look at all 3 phase 1 numbers in the + pace lines.
Looking at this horse's + lines can you see a pattern ?

For example look at the EPR numbers. This horse runs best with around a 90 EPR, and about a 88 LPR. It stays pretty close to the center line on the graph.


I used line 3 because after establishing the fulcrum ( horse 2 112.5 ),
I excused line1 because of declining form and possibly too high class.
I get validation from the low EPR being lower than 90 yet the early stick being much larger than the other + pace lines

I excused line 2 becaause of the class, form and 30 DTV. With a fulcrum
POR expected to be fast 112.5 i'm not going to depend on the big adjustmentneeded from a 114+ POR line
plus look at the EPR a 78 is a red flag ( or blue flag , tht this was not a normal line .

I used line 3 I feel this is a representative paceline based on my + 0 (+)
form and past history after a freshening 35 day layoff

GS
Bill

Last edited by Bill V.; 01-18-2017 at 09:39 PM.
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Old 01-19-2017, 12:38 AM   #3
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Line selection off the claim
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Old 01-19-2017, 03:15 AM   #4
turtleman
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Thanks Bill
another piece to the puzzle. I never thought of looking at the TPR screen and pp at the same time. Makes so much sense.
Mark Cramer would love this horse. Al40 loss cl20 win,
al32 loss oc15 win, oc25 loss cl20, oc25 loss cl20 win.
The kind of horse a guy should have in his barn.

Thanks for the lesson!
Tom

P.S I won't put this horse in my barn, HAHA!
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Old 01-19-2017, 09:18 PM   #5
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Nice job with the explanation
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Old 01-19-2017, 11:16 PM   #6
Mr.Pagine
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Bill V.

Thanks for this - much appreciated.
DTV 30 - please explain.

Jon
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Old 01-20-2017, 09:28 AM   #7
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Bill

I know your busy these days but hope you will keep posting
things here, seems like quite a few folks interested.

Jeff
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