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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 11-15-2012, 08:25 PM   #1
Bill V.
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Maneater

I wouldn't if I were you
I know what she can do
She's deadly man, and she could really rip your world apart
Mind over matter
The beauty is there but a beast is in the heart

Oh here she comes
Watch out boy she'll chew you up
Oh here she comes
She's a maneater


Here is race 4 today from Lrl

I urge you to pay attention to the RDSS readouts
but also READ the conditions and look at the lifetime records
and ML odds

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here are the PP's and my notes

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Old 11-15-2012, 08:29 PM   #2
Bill V.
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Horses

3 4 5
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Old 11-15-2012, 08:40 PM   #3
Bill V.
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horse

the rest

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look over these lines and then look at the read outs

Bill
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Old 11-15-2012, 08:51 PM   #4
Bill V.
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the readouts

segs and BLBL

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Here is a good case for the BLBL and Segs screens
Both the 4 and 7 have a 5 point advantage on the BLBL and are the low odss ML favorites
All the contenders run early or EP
except for the 8 but its going to be too far back at the second call
The 7 is second at the first call to the 6.
But the 6 has questionable form off that last line
The 7 and 4 both make good turn time moves and should run 1-2
The 9 makes a 2nd fraction move but its an early and too far back at F1
The eight might catch up but its week start and second call buts it too far back

I sent this race to FTL
I would like to post his comments to me

IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR!!!

Quote:
" READ THE CONDITIONS!!
"For 3 year olds"....OR....4 year olds and up, which have never won 3 races"
What does that mean?

Well, the 3 years olds could have won 100 races and still be eligible for this race.
On the other hand, 4 year olds and up are limited to just 2 wins.

Now look at the number of wins for each horse in the race.
You will find the #7 horse has 7 wins from 17 starts. Other than the #4, which has 3 wins (and ran 2nd), all the rest of the horses have just 2 wins.
The #7 is a 3 YEAR OLD. A 3 year old??? This is November the 15th. This horse is just a month and a half away from being 4 years old. This give this horse a MAJOR ADVANTAGE!!!

When you couple THIS with the horse's ability and match up in this race, is it any wonder it won and paid just $4.20??

Those who "HIDE" this horse just because it is the favorite, do so at their own peril !!!"
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Last edited by Bill V.; 11-15-2012 at 08:54 PM.
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