Race 6 CD Best Line

[Bill V.]

Hi Cody
The 16 horse you show is a scratch but my answer is no about using it.
It would not have ben a contender in TODAYS race.
Now these are facts I use they might not work for you.
First off Its 20/1 on the Morning Line this is almost always a non contender RED FLAG .
20/1 and above horses do win races but its very very rare when they do .
When they do win I look at it like this example, If I were in line to buy a lottery scratch off ticket
and the guy ahead of me buys one and he wins does that mean if I buy the next ticket I will win too ?
No its a random event. The odds of thousands of races prove this.
Right place right time type thing. I don't chase these horses and I don't give them lines.
Now if you want to use 20/1 ML horses I would rate this horse off the last line.
Line 2 is a poor effort Line 3 is a poor effort.
The key is to use the last line After you can excuse a line. Why did you excuse line 2 and 3 to go to line 4 ?

[5Chalky5]

Bill -

I was thinking in terms of he +(+) or 0.
I understand what you are saying if you skip a race than you need to go to next useable race. That would make this horse a throw out.

Right after I sent this I saw that he was a scratch, but I can still learn from this.

Thanks.

Kyle

[Bill V.]

Yes I would make the last line as a + plus race
It finished in the money, It made a strong middle move
and ran to its energy patern when in form. look at its Early Late EPR FFR rating and TPR
It is very close to its other plus sprint races
Its Early Late running pattern in its 3 plus sprint races
were
4.8 Early
5.8 Early
4.5 Early

[For The Lead]

First, I agree with Bill's choice of line 1 as the paceline to be used.

Let's take another look at the horse in question.

I have marked some areas you should pay attention to and will comment on them.

1 - the conditions of today's race and the conditions of its' most recent races. As you can see, they are basically the same, with the last race being slightly lower in class.

2 - you chose line 4 for this horse. Line 4 is this horse's "best ever" line.
If this line is so predictive, then why did the horse run much worse in its' next 3 races?
What evidence is there that this horse will run back to line 4 today if it hasn't run anywhere near that kind of race in its' last 3 races? The slight improvement in its' last race may be due to the slight drop in class. Today it is moving back up in class to the previous level.

Lastly, what does WET FAST (wf) mean?

It's a beautiful day. The sun is shinning. The temperature is in the 80's. The track is FAST. All of a sudden there is a downpour of rain. It only last for 15 or 20 minutes, but now there is water on the track. The track condition is changed to 'WET FAST'. What that means is...the track is STILL FAST, but there is water laying on top. The horses will probably continue to run fast times, assuming they were before the downpour. Compare this to the sidewalk. When it rains, there may be puddles on the sidewalk, but the sidewalk is still hard. WET FAST is NOT like sloppy, muddy or good. When you get to these surface conditions, the track has been effected by the moisture on the track and horses will run slower times.

In the Paceline Manual, Doc wrote the following...

[5Chalky5]

FTL -

I understand what you are saying.

Do you think a WF track could actually speed up the times?

When it comes to turf races are you supposed to skip races that have been run over off turf (GD,YL)?

Kyle

[cody]

Thanks Bill and FTL,thats what makes this thread so worthwhile.

Cody

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by 5Chalky5

FTL -

I understand what you are saying.

Do you think a WF track could actually speed up the times?

When it comes to turf races are you supposed to skip races that have been run over off turf (GD,YL)?

Kyle

To answer your first question, I'm not really sure. Anything I would say would be pure speculation.

To answer your second question will be a little more involved, but it is a good question.

The first thing you have to ask is "WHY" is it recommended to skip over (excuse) off tracks?
1 - some horses just plain DON'T LIKE IT, therefore they won't give their best effort. On the other hand, there are some horses that love the off tracks and may perform better for that reason. The assumption is, all horses will give you an honest performance on a fast track which will be dictated by their current form along with the distance and class at which they are currently entered.
2 - "OFF" tracks can be slower than fast tracks. Let's take two horses, one that ran 6 furlongs on a fast track and one that ran on a muddy track. Here are their times;

Horse A, on a fast track..... 22.2, 45.3, 111.4
Horse B, on a muddy track.. 23.1, 46.4, 113.0

Would it be fair to compare these two horses?
Understand that adjusting these times for daily variant can bring them closer together, but using "fast track" times for both horses is more appropriate.

As it pertains to TURF racing.
The same point I just made pertains to "firm" tracks as compared to "yielding" tracks.

Hope this answers your questions.

[5Chalky5]

FTL -

I understand what you are saying and thanks for responding.

Kyle

[Bill V.]

Cody
You are correct had you been consistant with your pacelines
you had the $80 horse right there

Wish I had done the race
Here is my look

My look
Last line TPR all horses
the 11 13 14 and 15 are scratched

The top 5 TPR and top 2 EP and Lp
horses 6, 9, 5, 12, 10

Now I will pick lines

H1 No line Early 20/1 ML
H2 No line Early 30/1 ML
H3 Early No sprint form 20/1 ML
H4 Line 1 Early
H5 Line 1 EP win in form runs balance
on the Early late graph
H6 SP line 1
H7 EP off 376 days No line
H8 Router No recent sprint form
H9 Sus Line 1 win line
H10 Sus Line 1 in line
H11 Scr
H12 No form No line 20/1 ML
H 16 sus 20/1 No line