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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 04-28-2016, 12:23 AM   #1
Bill V.
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Work up race Parx race 7 2/26

Here is race 7 from Parx
This race was requested for review
Its a 16 claimer for non winners of a race in 6 months

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Step 1 is always run the last line for all the horses

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Looking just at the last line I can see some key facts
2 of the horses # 2 and 6 have very good figures. 182.5 is a very nice TPR
These horses are coming from very good efforts
There are 3 horses coming from sprints, I have a good balance of running styles

Step 2 The fulcrum The 2 is our fulcrum horse with a 92 EPR
113.1

Step 3 Running styles
overview
1 Early 2, EPs, 4 Pressers, and 1 Sustained

Now I will pick lines.
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Old 04-28-2016, 12:58 AM   #2
Bill V.
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Horses

My notes or in each horses lower right PP"s

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Old 04-28-2016, 12:59 AM   #3
Bill V.
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Horse

5 6 8 #7 scr

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Old 04-28-2016, 01:14 AM   #4
Bill V.
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read outs

next step Early or OTE

rate the readout

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Earlys The 2 is solid. The 3 is early but the 2 will press it The 4 is weak here and out
Pick # 2 The top 3 total energy horses are all Early

OTE
The 6 is solid but can it win two in a row ?
The 5 has a good TPR but Its not top 3 EPR or LPR and It has a low VDC 5.3
Horse 1 is weak here -out
Horse 8 is solid with the best LPR It also ran against the fastest POR EP and has a class advantage
my bet here # 8


win bets 2 and 8


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Old 04-28-2016, 01:47 AM   #5
Mark
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Nice!!!

If they were all like this you could retire!!
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Old 04-28-2016, 09:10 AM   #6
Latekick
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Thanks for the work up Bill.
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