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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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05-18-2016, 10:41 PM | #21 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Parameters
Quote:
Hi GL45 No I could not tell you because I never modeled it. I can not dig up some stats forhow often the 1 "stick" wins or # 2 or what ever. The #1 Stick simply means the horse ran more unbalanced then the #2 "stick" horse Rather than ranking the sticks , Which Doc never did by the way , We were instructed in the follow up to look for parameters of what wins at your track based on distance and surface and competition level . Look at it this way , using the 3 horse Red Rei Rei Lets say it is 145 days ago, Last Dec21st. You are handicapping race 3, a 6.5 furlong race for CL15 N4-L Line 4 ( which would be line 1 on this day ) Line 1 looks like a solid win line, Its recent, Its a + pace line. It fits this horses running style which is Early, Now lets look at the stick. It is a big red +22 It probably would be the #1 or maybe the #2 biggest stick in the analysis of all the other pace lines you used for the other horses in the race, Now the question really is this, Is +22 too early ? in todays match up ? My experience of my doing so many races over my Sartin years from Parx is, Yes 22 is too unbalanced early. The 95 EPR is great but this horse won a race with a 73 LPR ! which is very low ( anything under 80 ) usually means too much deceleration and a loss, 95 EPR minus 73 LPR means a +22 Early balance, so you get a +22 stick So in todays race will the match up allow a repeat of a unbalance early pace line, against a much higher class level of competition , from 10,000 to 15,000 and also non winners of 4 life instead of non winner of 3 life - In the Match Up, are there other Earlys who will do nothing but make the 3 horse run even more unbalanced early? That is what happened in the Dec 21 race. Red Rei Rei ran a faster EPR of 96.4 but It caused it to run a terrible 43.9 LPR and lose by 30 lengths. So It does little to say the #1 biggest stick ( best ?) wins a certain percent of races, What matters is , what range of early or middle or late balance win most often. I would say in a range of +12 to +15 and anything over 20 is probably too early for this kind of race at Parx A horse with less than + 5 had better be very close in EPR LPR balance or else they will be too far back and then need the better EPR to collapse. |
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05-19-2016, 06:33 AM | #22 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
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Bill,
I didn't mean for you to keep a stick model, but rather a model of VDC, TPR, EPR, FFR, APV, CR. |
05-19-2016, 04:21 PM | #23 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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I love that...
Bill,
My impression is that rather than set hard parameters you use these numbers to diagnose the pace scenario and because of your years of experience that leads you to the most likely outcome. I enjoy reading your write ups because they embody a flexibility of analysis. What do the numbers indicate is likely to happen and the most likely outcome is your conclusion. Just fantastic!! |
05-20-2016, 09:18 AM | #24 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
I look forward to more analysis from races. Good Skill Bill |
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