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Old 09-12-2020, 01:52 PM   #1
Raptor
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Regression Models

Good afternoon everyone. I am searching for an easy to understand free computer program or such that can track custom factors. I put the relative rankings in and the "program" will show the ROI in retrospect.
Thank you.
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Old 09-12-2020, 05:30 PM   #2
ScottB
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Originally Posted by Raptor View Post
Good afternoon everyone. I am searching for an easy to understand free computer program or such that can track custom factors. I put the relative rankings in and the "program" will show the ROI in retrospect.
Thank you.
There is free software available out there but its not that easy.
You would have to purchase archived data files to run your relative rankings.
You would probably want to run them on a minimum of 3,000 races. If you want to run multiple tracks you are looking at a very expensive project.
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Old 09-13-2020, 04:37 PM   #3
Raptor
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Is the free hard to use software you refer to Excel? and what are the others?
Let's say I have factor Z ranked and it just came in 10 times in a row for a very positive ROI. How do I record that? I'm trying to record my opinions and factors and derive a plan of action. I won't live long enough to and don't need to use or pay for a database with 3000 races in it.
Thanks.
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Old 09-14-2020, 04:23 PM   #4
ScottB
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Is the free hard to use software you refer to Excel? and what are the others?
Let's say I have factor Z ranked and it just came in 10 times in a row for a very positive ROI. How do I record that? I'm trying to record my opinions and factors and derive a plan of action. I won't live long enough to and don't need to use or pay for a database with 3000 races in it.
Thanks.
brisnet.com offers free software. They have a decent one "All-ways" which handicaps races for you and gives you a rating for each horse. You can also plug in parameters of an angle play and it will tell you if a play is present. It has other features too.

The software is free but with no database. You can build one from scratch or purchase archive files. They charge $14 a card and $7 for an archive file. Expensive.

If you want to take a look log onto brisnet.com and click on "more" top right hand corner. Drop down window will show free software.
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Old 09-14-2020, 07:49 PM   #5
Raptor
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Here's my ultimate opinion, for what it's worth.
Models can be helpful, which is why I asked the original question in the first place.
But probably at least two thirds of the equation is an art form given almost everyone who bets on horses loses.
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Old 09-15-2020, 09:13 AM   #6
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Here's my ultimate opinion, for what it's worth.
Models can be helpful, which is why I asked the original question in the first place.
But probably at least two thirds of the equation is an art form given almost everyone who bets on horses loses.

Yep. The "at least 2/3" has to involve the whos, whats, wheres, whens, and why
runners fail to meet or exceed the expectations of our models.

The list of factors and combinations of factors, before we get to the 5 Ws,
can seem almost as endless as the list of Ws.

Then there's handicapping your own handicapping.

The great news is: if we can do well at knocking off runners at less than 9/2,
AND locate who else in the race has their chances increase more than the rest of the field.......
......you got this game pretty much beat, or you're right there.


Mike
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Old 09-15-2020, 01:27 PM   #7
ScottB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raptor View Post
Here's my ultimate opinion, for what it's worth.
Models can be helpful, which is why I asked the original question in the first place.
But probably at least two thirds of the equation is an art form given almost everyone who bets on horses loses.
Are you saying you are not winning?
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Old 09-15-2020, 01:35 PM   #8
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The great news is: if we can do well at knocking off runners at less than 9/2,
AND locate who else in the race has their chances increase more than the rest of the field.......
......you got this game pretty much beat, or you're right there.

Mike
That statement is erroneous.
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Old 09-15-2020, 02:16 PM   #9
Ted Craven
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Raptor, consider using Excel (or the equivalent and free Open office) to track your factors. Once you have the list of your factors, it's pretty straightforward (if time consuming, by manual input) to input data and get Hit Rates and ROI for any factor you like. Free if you already have Excel or use Open office: just add 'elbow grease'.

Consider the Excel spreadsheet used by RDSS to export all its factors. You can download a large 1600+ race sheet, and use it to get ideas about how you could set up your own (much simpler) version. Perhaps some of the sorting and filtering ideas in the sheet or in related threads below will also give you ideas. Here is a post by Bill V with a link to his sheet, also a link to a thread by Dorianmode on several of his sortable and filterable sheets. Again, for RDSS export, but it might give you ideas to adapt your own tracking system.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...51&postcount=8

Good luck!

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Old 09-16-2020, 05:31 PM   #10
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That statement is erroneous.
maybe I should have said 7/2 instead of 9/2.

there are some very good handicappers here.....didn't want to insult them.

Mike
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