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11-07-2013, 09:08 AM | #1 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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The Parx 7 furlong
On Oct 26 Water Tower won a 7 furlong race at Parx.
Down in the selections area Rmath was asked which pace line he used to get this winner. His reply got me thinking, Quote:
laid out by FTL in the teaching area, I agree with Richard, I have always felt the same about 7 furlong races, that sprinters and routers seem to both do well at this distance. I went back and checked all the 7 furlong races run at Parx so far in 2013. I then identified the winner of those 197 races as being won by the following notations. Router = R Sprinter = S Both = B Zero = 0 Router and Sprinter are self explanatory all there pace lines are from that distance, Water Tower is a router The notation B / both is for horses who show plus + pacelines at both the sprint and route distance. The notation 0 is for horses with both sprint and route pacelines but have no plus + races, These 0 horses are also first time starters, or horses with only poly or turf lines. Here is the breakdown of the 197 winners Sprinters (S) do have an advantage over the B, R, and 0 winners but its not enough, This is why I will usually only work 7 furlong races with all sprinters or maybe 1 route horse. If there is a mixture of sprinters and routers I will pass. thought I would share my findings Water Tower won and paid $17.00 here are RMath lines Bill |
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11-07-2013, 09:13 AM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Both
I find it interesting that horses who show a + pace line at both a sprint and route distance do better well at 7 furlongs
Bill |
11-07-2013, 11:25 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2013
Location: NY
Posts: 455
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Bill you also pointed something out to me once. It also depends on what track you are at. If you were at Belmont instead of Parx for instance, the 7 and 8 furlong race would both come out of the chute. The mile at Parx is a 2 turn race.
I don't know how much of an effect that has. But I'm sure it has some. |
11-07-2013, 11:41 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana
Posts: 334
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Kind of interesting Bill's chart of 197 races shows female sprinters nearly twice as dominant vs routers @ 7F than are their male counterparts.
__________________
Serious fun. www.cappersoverlay.com |
11-07-2013, 12:03 PM | #5 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Por
Quote:
Hi Matt I mentioned this in my preliminary (napkin) conversations on my research of 7 furlong races The early pace of race in the 7 furlong races is much faster than at 1 mile. They tend to go very slow around turn 1 at 1 mile. I have not separated the mile distance to male and female or by age yet but I have at 7 furlongs. Here are the average Pace of race early fractions for 7 furlong and 1 mile races, at Parx This may be a reason why routers do well at Parx at 7 furlongs if they have run a plus race in a sprint Last edited by Bill V.; 11-07-2013 at 12:08 PM. |
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11-07-2013, 12:22 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Posts: 624
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Bill, you once showed your template in a thread. I thought I bookmarked it but can't put my finger on it. Do you remember what thread that was?
Thanks.
__________________
Terry |
11-07-2013, 02:27 PM | #7 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Many Factors
Quote:
Here is my template. For the winner of each race at Parx, I keep track of many factors. Most of this information is not really necessary but I just do it for the enjoyment From left to right my headings are Date Race # Surface Distance Class Class Rating Age /Sex Name of winner Total Energy EPR LPR TPR E/L difference - These are the actual numbers calculated from the result chart not a ranking. Next to these calculations I list the actual, POR fractions The Visual ESP BL F1 BL SC Position F1 Position SC Field size The morning Line final odds Post position Win Price Jockey Age of Horse Days since last race Life time wins Lifetime races Plus race last line (or valid excuse) ? Y-N Plus race last 90 days in a comparable pace line? Y-N Trainer Claims in the race As Ted said mine is a hybrid of Doc's Ideal spreadsheet FU 82 A Brohamer decision model, and the model from Pace Makes the Race |
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11-08-2013, 05:32 AM | #8 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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percent
Quote:
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11-08-2013, 05:29 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Bill, thanks for the info on PRX 7 f races.
I like playing them because most people are too unsure of what it takes to win at this distance. I find I can usually find one or two decent paying horses on each card. Rmath |
11-09-2013, 07:31 AM | #10 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Do 7 furlong races pay better?
Like a ghost 7 furlong races paying better than other distance may not
be there at all. Like many things mutual prices tend to average out. Getting long shots at 7 furlongs more than other distances is probably based on being at the right place at the right time. But seriously, horses that pay well and us being able to spot them over what the crowd thinks is probably based on readouts available to us in the Sartin Methodology. The crowd does not seem to be any better or worse at 7 furlongs than the other distances. Based on my records of all the dirt sprint races run in 2013, 7 furlong males pay much better than females At 6 and 6.5 furlongs males pay a little better than the females At 5.5 furlongs the females pay better than the males Here is the breakdown of all the sprint races run at Parx so far in 2013 There are so few 5 furlong races, I did not include them . Usually these races are off the turf races which tend to mess up the odds. The average price for all dirt sprints is $11.33 The average morning line for all dirt sprints is 4.87/1 7 furlong males pay better than average but the females pay less than average . |
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