The Early Horse - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

THE HAT · 05-23-2006, 08:53 AM

Howdy,
Doc is doing ok. I talk to him about every couple of months.
Position is very important in a horse race. The "break" is where the race starts and if you look at the past performance you can see where the horse need to take over the race to win. If a horse is "Headed" at the first call, we don’t know how far he had to run, fighting to get the lead. but it costs him units of energy and his energy is depleted and he falls back.
I made the statement; "for every unit of energy (fifth of second) a horse depletes early it costs him two units at the end." This statement was later verified by Huey Mahl. I do not have the video you mentioned.

sdahl · 05-23-2006, 01:44 PM

Hi Jim. I have completed the first 2 steps and projected the pace. when i compare the projected pace to the horses,what kind of variance do you generally allow before eliminating a horse. Also does this start at the first call, and if the horse is close then you go to the second call or do you primarily look at the finishing time.

THE HAT · 05-23-2006, 02:42 PM

Stan,
Match running lines of each horse on projected pace, use the complete past
performance, before you eliminate the horse.
The comparing of the lines start at the first call, second call, stretch and
then the final time.

Jim

Rxlawyer · 05-24-2006, 08:05 AM

Jim:

How do you handle a presser or sustained type horse that has been running against faster times than todays projected time. For example, if I project the early horse to run 22.2 and 46 and I have a presser who can run 2 lengths behind a 22 and 45.2 what will the presser do today? Will it go for the lead during the second fraction and run the 45.2 or will it tend to run its usual style and be 2 lengths behind the 46? Is it unwise to use the pace line where the leader went in 22 and 45.2? Should I try to find a pace line closer to the 22.2 and 46?

Gary

THE HAT · 05-24-2006, 09:45 AM

Gary,

It is very difficult to answer a "what if" question, but usually a horse that runs two lengths behind the lead horse, regardless of the first call in today’s race. There is the possibility the presser could take over at some stage in the race. It is best to find the pace that could be run today.

Jim

VoodooFan · 05-25-2006, 12:40 AM

Glad you are having conversations with the Doc. One day, you should divulge what he thinks on the current state of handicapping or future of handicapping. I hope you preach to no end about the "break". Everytime I lost a race, and look at an "ugly" horse with "ugly" lines, tryin to figure out "how in the hell THiS ugly horse" won, most of the time, the "break" tells "ALOT" about how the race and energy of the race sets up , before the first call, along with proper designated ESP. That "break" part of MatchUp is very, very POWERFUL stuff and, I think, severely underestimated.

dectivelemmycaution · 06-07-2006, 03:22 PM

Hi,

I love the Match Up! Are tapes of this lecture around somplace for sale?

Friday night May 26 at Hollywood Park the ESP was picture perfict and the only speed in the race won ww in a six horse field! Thanks

HOLLYWOOD PARK Jump to race: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
Friday, May 26, 2006
Weather: Clear. 61. Track Fast
Off Times in Local P.M. Time, Unless Otherwise Noted.
1st Race, Next Post 7:35 Off: 7:07
7 1/2 Furlongs. 4 Year Olds And Up Claiming ($8,000) Purse: $11,580
# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
2 Halo Ms. Lion Baze M C 121 41.60 20.40 7.20
5 Playful Blint Cohen D 121 15.40 5.00
1 Phinadanz (BRZ) Ochoa J 114 2.80
Times in 5ths: :222 :444 1:093 1:231 1:302
Times in 100ths: :22.43 :44.83 1:09.78 1:23.20 1:30.51
Claimed: She's a Bold Lady by Miller Peter (Campochiaro Guy and G-Racing), Mercedes Dancer by Mulhall Kristin (Oak West Farm ),
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Stonecutter, She's a Bold Lady and Mercedes Dancer
Winning Trainer: Vargas J Buenaventura - Owner: Knudson, Vern and Vargas, J. B.
$1 Exacta (2-5) Paid $105.50
$2 Quinella (2-5) Paid $106.80
$1 Trifecta (2-5-1) Paid $554.60

ClarkWilson · 07-23-2006, 01:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by THE HAT

Howdy,
Doc is doing ok. I talk to him about every couple of months.
Position is very important in a horse race. The "break" is where the race starts and if you look at the past performance you can see where the horse need to take over the race to win. If a horse is "Headed" at the first call, we donâ€™t know how far he had to run, fighting to get the lead. but it costs him units of energy and his energy is depleted and he falls back.
I made the statement; "for every unit of energy (fifth of second) a horse depletes early it costs him two units at the end." This statement was later verified by Huey Mahl. I do not have the video you mentioned.

Above you gave an abbreviated answer on what happens when a horse is headed. Is it possible to expand on that.

For example, how do we know how many units of energy the horse has used to keep its position.

THE HAT · 07-24-2006, 03:12 PM

Howdy Clark,

I call early horses that are headed at the first call hidden early, because they are fighting for the lead. In many instances this horse may have won, if the other horse wasn’t in the race. Look at the past performances and verify that the horse is early and if he can go wire-to-wire.

To determine how much energy this cost the horse, look at the final beaten lengths and you can see how many units of energy was used fighting for the lead.

The Hat

05-25-2006, 12:40 AM	#16
VoodooFan True Disciple of Voodoo Join Date: May 2006 Location: EarthQuake country( cali , baby) Posts: 349	Good news for the Doc Glad you are having conversations with the Doc. One day, you should divulge what he thinks on the current state of handicapping or future of handicapping. I hope you preach to no end about the "break". Everytime I lost a race, and look at an "ugly" horse with "ugly" lines, tryin to figure out "how in the hell THiS ugly horse" won, most of the time, the "break" tells "ALOT" about how the race and energy of the race sets up , before the first call, along with proper designated ESP. That "break" part of MatchUp is very, very POWERFUL stuff and, I think, severely underestimated.

06-07-2006, 03:22 PM	#17
dectivelemmycaution Maiden Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1	tapes Hi, I love the Match Up! Are tapes of this lecture around somplace for sale? Friday night May 26 at Hollywood Park the ESP was picture perfict and the only speed in the race won ww in a six horse field! Thanks HOLLYWOOD PARK Jump to race: 1 \| 2 \| 3 \| 4 \| 5 \| 6 \| 7 \| 8 \| Friday, May 26, 2006 Weather: Clear. 61. Track Fast Off Times in Local P.M. Time, Unless Otherwise Noted. 1st Race, Next Post 7:35 Off: 7:07 7 1/2 Furlongs. 4 Year Olds And Up Claiming ($8,000) Purse: $11,580 # Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show 2 Halo Ms. Lion Baze M C 121 41.60 20.40 7.20 5 Playful Blint Cohen D 121 15.40 5.00 1 Phinadanz (BRZ) Ochoa J 114 2.80 Times in 5ths: :222 :444 1:093 1:231 1:302 Times in 100ths: :22.43 :44.83 1:09.78 1:23.20 1:30.51 Claimed: She's a Bold Lady by Miller Peter (Campochiaro Guy and G-Racing), Mercedes Dancer by Mulhall Kristin (Oak West Farm ), Unplaced horses listed in order of finish. Also ran: Stonecutter, She's a Bold Lady and Mercedes Dancer Winning Trainer: Vargas J Buenaventura - Owner: Knudson, Vern and Vargas, J. B. $1 Exacta (2-5) Paid $105.50 $2 Quinella (2-5) Paid $106.80 $1 Trifecta (2-5-1) Paid $554.60

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05-23-2006, 08:53 AM	#11
THE HAT Grade 2 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86	Howdy, Doc is doing ok. I talk to him about every couple of months. Position is very important in a horse race. The "break" is where the race starts and if you look at the past performance you can see where the horse need to take over the race to win. If a horse is "Headed" at the first call, we don’t know how far he had to run, fighting to get the lead. but it costs him units of energy and his energy is depleted and he falls back. I made the statement; "for every unit of energy (fifth of second) a horse depletes early it costs him two units at the end." This statement was later verified by Huey Mahl. I do not have the video you mentioned.

05-23-2006, 01:44 PM	#12
sdahl Grade 3 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Edmonton, Canada Posts: 71	Hi Jim. I have completed the first 2 steps and projected the pace. when i compare the projected pace to the horses,what kind of variance do you generally allow before eliminating a horse. Also does this start at the first call, and if the horse is close then you go to the second call or do you primarily look at the finishing time.

05-23-2006, 02:42 PM	#13
THE HAT Grade 2 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86	Stan, Match running lines of each horse on projected pace, use the complete past performance, before you eliminate the horse. The comparing of the lines start at the first call, second call, stretch and then the final time. Jim

05-24-2006, 08:05 AM	#14
Rxlawyer Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 212	Jim: How do you handle a presser or sustained type horse that has been running against faster times than todays projected time. For example, if I project the early horse to run 22.2 and 46 and I have a presser who can run 2 lengths behind a 22 and 45.2 what will the presser do today? Will it go for the lead during the second fraction and run the 45.2 or will it tend to run its usual style and be 2 lengths behind the 46? Is it unwise to use the pace line where the leader went in 22 and 45.2? Should I try to find a pace line closer to the 22.2 and 46? Gary

05-24-2006, 09:45 AM	#15
THE HAT Grade 2 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86	Gary, It is very difficult to answer a "what if" question, but usually a horse that runs two lengths behind the lead horse, regardless of the first call in today’s race. There is the possibility the presser could take over at some stage in the race. It is best to find the pace that could be run today. Jim

07-24-2006, 03:12 PM	#19
THE HAT Grade 2 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86	Howdy Clark, I call early horses that are headed at the first call hidden early, because they are fighting for the lead. In many instances this horse may have won, if the other horse wasn’t in the race. Look at the past performances and verify that the horse is early and if he can go wire-to-wire. To determine how much energy this cost the horse, look at the final beaten lengths and you can see how many units of energy was used fighting for the lead. The Hat