interesting observations

[Tim Y]

O'Meara on racing: Synthetic stars rarely a Derby factor
Wednesday, January 21, 2009 11:43 PM EST
By BRENDAN O'MEARA, The Saratogian
A lot of people seem to think that horses that have raced over synthetic
surfaces muddy the Kentucky Derby picture when in fact these horses
clear it up.

Some equate them to the ultimate X-factor. I call them the F-factor.

If a horse has been successful over the fake stuff and is unproven on
conventional dirt, wave to him in the paddock on Derby Day and say,
“Loser!” The jockey should understand.

There has not been a legitimate horse aside from Street Sense, and if you really want to make a stretch, Colonel John, who has transferred synthetic form into champion dirt form.

In 2007, Street Sense finished second in an exciting blanket finish in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland three weeks from the Derby. Dominican won that race, finished 11th in the Derby and has since faded into obscurity.

Colonel John, during his 2008 sophomore season, was the champion of the West Coast, running over Santa Anita’s Cushion Track (they now use Pro-Ride … whatever). Colonel John had a nasty trip in the Derby to finish sixth (actually impressive), then ran a doozy in the Travers against a Big
Brown-less bunch of mules. I still maintain that Mambo in Seattle won
that race.

Maybe the Colonel is still a decent horse, but even his transferred form from
the fake to the real stuff is marginal at best.

Street Sense was proven on dirt, ran well over the Polytrack (something Pyro could not do) and then skimmed the rail with Calvin Borel for a
memorable Derby win.

Many other horses have proven that they belong solely on the rubber and should not be allowed in the starting gate on THE first Saturday.

Monba is an astounding case for this. He won the Blue Grass over Poly and then finished 20th in the Kentucky Derby. Adriano, winner of the Grade II Lane’s End Stakes, also over Poly at Turfway, finished 19th in the Derby.

Cowboy Cal, runner up to Monba in the Blue Grass, finished ninth in the Derby.

Bob Black Jack, who set a world record at six furlongs on Sunshine Millions
Day (because Santa Anita shaved its surface so low it was like
pavement), finished 16th after setting the pace.

Gayego was a different case, and of the synthetic horses on the West Coast, I thought he would do quite well in Derby 134 — this because of his
Arkansas Derby. He had a wonderful trip in Arkansas and won, rating off
the flank of Tres Borrachos.

After that effort I thought he would have been a contender. In all likelihood that race took too much out of him. He then had a nightmare trip in Kentucky, practically running on his hind legs for a few strides heading into the clubhouse turn before finishing 17th.

Looking at the past two Kentucky Derbys, the top three finishers all had quality races on dirt. In 2007, the top three were Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin. A year later itwas Big Brown, Eight Belles and Denis of Cork.

I would not necessarily ignore the horses that run on synthetics, but I would give a monstrous edge to the colts and fillies running in Florida, Arkansasand Louisiana over California and Kentucky.

So far on this Derby Trail 135, Pioneer of the Nile’s win in the Grade I CashCall Futurity was impressive and The Pamplemousse’s score in the Grade III San Rafael Stakes was nice, but until these horses ship east, they will forever be an also-ran come May.

That is, of course, until they prove they can do it on dirt. Until then, they deserve only slight attention, which fortunately does not cost a penny at the windows.

Brendan O’Meara covers thoroughbred horse racing for The Saratogian. His column appears every Thursday. |He can be reached at bomeara@saratogian.com or at his blog, The Carryover, at brendanomeara.blogspot.com.