The Gene Garcia Sunday 3/22 - Pace and Cap

Bill V. · 03-22-2009, 10:49 AM

The first race at Philly
There looks like a bunch of earlys and sprinters stretching out
I will go with the # 7 and # 3

Bill V. · 03-22-2009, 11:01 AM

first 3

Bill V. · 03-22-2009, 11:02 AM

Next three

Bill V. · 03-22-2009, 11:04 AM

last few

Capcondo · 03-24-2009, 12:21 AM

Bill,

I'm glad you put this one up. I took a cursory look at the race and came to the same conclusion you did. Cursory looks don't often win races.

First off, the 1 and 1A were scratched. This eliminated a large part of the eary speed. The 5 got the lead which shouldn't come as that much of a surprise since he has been 1st or 2nd at the break since he was conceived.

The 8 APPEARS to have early speed. Heck, he's been first in every race he's been in. A closer look reveals the 8 broke 4th and 3rd in his last 2 against mediocre fractions. The 8 has also run first and second fractions in a route of 22.9 47.2, 23.5 47, and 23.4 48.1 and won or finished second which is better than anyone else in the field at a route. And, he has never failed when he didn't have the lead because he has always had the lead.

The other than early horses appear to be the 3 and the 7. The third back for the 3 is a much better race than he has ever run. All the other good races, the horse needs to be 2nd or 3rd at the first call to win. The last two races indicate he is reverting to his earlier form. The 7 is a bit more sustained and has handled fractions of 23.5 47.3 at Aqueduct only one time. The 8 has done it three times.

All this said, the pace should be slower than originally anticipated because of the scratches.

The real reason I'm replying is that I think I've learned something about the matchup in the last couple of weeks regarding horses that LOOK like they want to go to the front. If they have superior early fractions, be careful. These horses can frequently run off a slower pace and act just like an early presser. I have seen this happen three or four times in the last couple of weeks.

Tim

03-22-2009, 10:49 AM	#1
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	The Gene Garcia Sunday 3/22 The first race at Philly There looks like a bunch of earlys and sprinters stretching out I will go with the # 7 and # 3 Attached Images

03-22-2009, 11:01 AM	#2
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	The past performance first 3 Attached Images

03-22-2009, 11:02 AM	#3
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Pp Next three Attached Images

03-22-2009, 11:04 AM	#4
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	last last few Attached Images

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03-24-2009, 12:21 AM	#5
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Bill, I'm glad you put this one up. I took a cursory look at the race and came to the same conclusion you did. Cursory looks don't often win races. First off, the 1 and 1A were scratched. This eliminated a large part of the eary speed. The 5 got the lead which shouldn't come as that much of a surprise since he has been 1st or 2nd at the break since he was conceived. The 8 APPEARS to have early speed. Heck, he's been first in every race he's been in. A closer look reveals the 8 broke 4th and 3rd in his last 2 against mediocre fractions. The 8 has also run first and second fractions in a route of 22.9 47.2, 23.5 47, and 23.4 48.1 and won or finished second which is better than anyone else in the field at a route. And, he has never failed when he didn't have the lead because he has always had the lead. The other than early horses appear to be the 3 and the 7. The third back for the 3 is a much better race than he has ever run. All the other good races, the horse needs to be 2nd or 3rd at the first call to win. The last two races indicate he is reverting to his earlier form. The 7 is a bit more sustained and has handled fractions of 23.5 47.3 at Aqueduct only one time. The 8 has done it three times. All this said, the pace should be slower than originally anticipated because of the scratches. The real reason I'm replying is that I think I've learned something about the matchup in the last couple of weeks regarding horses that LOOK like they want to go to the front. If they have superior early fractions, be careful. These horses can frequently run off a slower pace and act just like an early presser. I have seen this happen three or four times in the last couple of weeks. Tim