Contender Designation Question

[Ted Craven]

Question regarding Woodbine Race 7, Nov 28, 2012 -

"Nice hit in Race 7. I did not handicap that race. But looking back, I would have used the 10 as win contender. why did you conclude the 10 was just a in the money contender."

Answer - My analysis of the #10 and its non-primary contender status was solely made on its poor last line. It was within 3 weeks, so same form cycle, same race conditions as today so same general calibre of competition, and yet it made NO moves against the pace, lost lengths throughout, always chasing the rear of the field, and with no reported trouble or excuses. After steadily improving for 4 races, its final time Speed Rating last out fell back to among its worst ever. Even after having won its 2nd back N2-L conditioned Ontario-bred Allowance, the public held it poorly next out at 9.9-1. Either sore or dis-spirited, whatever - but otherwise a poor candidate to duplicate its 2nd back line performance - time for a winter break at the farm.

All of these observations were more than enough for me to discount it, and thus not overrate it by using its 2nd line back.