How to Make People Believe

[Because I Can Jim]

Yesterday was my wedding anniversary.

My misses and I went to Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs to have dinner and to watch some races. It is also a trotter's track so it has a racebook.

The misses is Chinese and never experience a racetrack before. We watched the trotters once before and went to Penn National to watch thoroughbreds, but, she was never in a racebook so I thought we would give it a try.

I mention these tracks because she admits she does not know anything about how to "pick" a horse so she just looks at the numbers on the tote board and makes her choices. She was very reluctant to wager because money is valuable to her. She doesn't want to lose, but, likes to see if she can win.

So we settled in at the racebook. I had handicapped Mountaineer's card for the last five races.

Race 4 - I liked the 4 and 7. The odds on the 4 was 1/5 after someone dumped about $7000 to win on the 4 with 5 MTP. I thought there was something wrong with the tote board or something else because the odds changed so drastically. Because of it, I decided to pass the race. The 4 won paying $3.00.

Race 5 - I liked the 5 and 7 going off at 4/5 and 9/5 respectively. Pass. The 7 won paying $3.00.

Race 6 - Here is where it gets interesting.... The misses saw I had the winner in the two races, but, she could not understand why I didn't bet. (A conversation for another day.) I told her I liked the 3 and the 6 going off at 4-1 and 6-1. "Honey, here is $6. Go over to that lady there. Take this paper with you and give it to her so that she knows you want $2 to win, $2 to place and $2 to show on horse #6." She brought back the ticket understanding only a little about what was on it.

At the top of the stretch - the 3 and 6. Go 6!! Come on 6!!! Yes, #6!!!! We won honey!!!!

Of course the first thing she had to say was "How much did we win?" Let's see....17.60 to win, 6.40 to place and 4.80 to show = 28.80

Now take the ticket back to the lady and she will give you the money. The lady only gives her 28.00. You don't even want to begin to know about why we didn't get back the 0.80 cents. LOL

But, she is happy. Hey. Give me back the $6. You can keep the rest. (Aren't I so wonderful!!! LOL)

Race 7 - I like the 5-8-7 but decide to pass the race. My misses now gets brave because she finally broke the "I'm going to bet money barrier" and decides she likes the 6-7-9 just from looking at the tote board. She wants to wager $2 to win on each of the horses. (For anyone who wagers at the tracks, if you don't already know....this is where you profits are coming from!!! LOL But, it is our anniversary and....) The 8 wins and she loses. Reality check. Flush with money one race, losing the next.

Race 8 - I like the 7 and 5, but, I have some serious questions about the race. Therefore, I pass the race. However, I give the misses $6 more dollars to put across the board on the 5 horse.

At the first fraction the 7 horse is 3/4 lengths behind sandwiched between the two leaders. You can see the jockey try to slow the horse down and he does such a good job that you can see the horse thinking "Ohhhh yeah!!! Well take this!!!" and throws the rider. The 10 horse wins paying 68.80. An opportunity missed for me because the 5 horse pays 16.00 to place and $7.40 to show. I would have had $2w/$4p/$8s if I had wagered. But, when there are too many questions or you are not sure - pass - there is always a next race. (Arghhhhh! Who thinks up these sayings and quotes to soothe you when yo want instant gratification!)

But, my misses is now very happy as she gets to cash a ticket for 16.00 and 7.40 = 23.40!!! Now she is up like $33 but she is sitting there with $40 because I didn't have the heart to take back the $6 she lost.

Race 9 - I like the 10 and 5. At 1 MTP the odds are 6/5 and 3 respectively. "Sorry honey, I am going to pass the race. Odds are too low for me." We watch.

As the money from around the racebooks get dumped into the pools at post time, the odds on the 5 go up to 6-1!!!! Would have been a wager!!! Missed opportunity!!!!

Missed it was.... The 5 won paying 14.60, 4.60 and 3.80. How do I explain to my misses shy we didn't have the wager and make money???!!!!

And that is why you can paper handicap and think you have got it all down pat when you are looking at the result charts after the fact, but, the reality of live racing is very much different. It isn't that you are something different when paper handicapping versus live wagering. It is that here is a race - after the fact - that I would have included in my stats for a win, how much I made, etc....when I am paper handicapping that I don't get to include in my true, actual, live records of wagers.... Very different.

So, on the way home, all I listened to was "Lao Gong (affectioantely "Old Man" in Mandarin) you must do this! You can make money!!! We must come here every Saturday and play!!!" Arghhhhh....I've created a monster!!! LOL