"Match" this race

[JEFF KENT]

9th BELMONT 6-Fur. T-good

Projected probable pace of race 22.0-45.3-1.11.0

Use#5 for 1st+2nd call
Use#1a for final time

Match up dictates=O.T.E.

Contenders=1a-2-3-7-10
Slow pace=high# of cont.

#1a use line#9
#2 use line #1
#3 use line #10
#7 use line #8
#10 use line #7

For missing fract,s use hat method of 6.2 sec,s per 1/2 furlong.

#7 line#7 NAAS race course has a flat back side with a uphill stretch

"HAT"quote I love that yankee $$

[Capcondo]

Nice hit Jeff.

In looking at your matchup for this race, I think I would have handled it a bit differently. To be fair, I didn't play the race. It is not my intention to past post here.

Here goes:

First, the 1, 2B, 8, 11-14 are scratched.

As I studied the race, I saw the 4 and 5 early with the 3, 9, and 10 E/P. Looks to run OTE.

The 3 and 4 had a tandem on the grass on Sept. 16th at Belmont. That would be my projected pace line of 21.4 44.3 56.2 1:08.3. I didn't think the race would go quite this fast. The 3 was back 1 length at the first call and 3 lengths at the second call but I'll use the race with no beaten lengths.

Here are the contenders:

1A: Out
2: In off 4 back; no confirming line
3: In off tandem
4: Early out
5: Early Will stop no turf out
6: Out off of weak tandem
7: FPLR in last race - In; No confirming line.
9: E/P out
10: Has faced projected pace twice W/O success. E/P out

Left with the 2, 3, 7. 3 is E/P out. This is where the call is tough. The race figures to run sustained and the 2 is a presser type.

Richie did something in the hat check some time ago that seems to apply here. The 7 was 6th at the first call against a 21.2 in his last race. The projected pace is a 21.4 but the 4 ran a 22.0 in the tandem. Move the 6 up 3positions to 3rd at the first call. At the 2nd call, the 4 is 3 lengths off a 44.3or 45.1 and the 7 runs against a 45.2. Leave the 7 third at the 2nd call. Look at how close he ran to what was projected.

I didn't mean to steal a guy's thunder who just hit a 20:1 shot. I just saw it a bit differently and wanted to share my thoughts.

Tim

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by JEFF KENT

9th BELMONT 6-Fur. T-good

Projected probable pace of race 22.0-45.3-1.11.0

For missing fract,s use hat method of 6.2 sec,s per 1/2 furlong.

I'm just trying to make sense of this. Using 6.2 seconds per 1/2 furlong, the first fraction for the #7 would be 25.3 (making it 18 lengths behind the projected pace) and the second call time would be 51.1 (making it 28 lengths behind the projected pace). So if the final time being used is 1.11.0, that means the #7 horse would have to run a final fraction of "19.4" in order to achieve a 1.11.00 and hopefully beat the other horses in the race. Can a horse run a final fraction that fast??? I know horses run "sustained" on the turf, but WOW!!!

[JEFF KENT]

The #7,s Final time was 121.2
Working backwards-6 f,s=108.3
5 f,s=55.4
4 f,s=43.0-"ETC."

I,had checked thier,s and other Irish racing sites,and all I could find was that it has a uphill stretch run,nothing was said about the back side,even if there is a downhill,it probably is not as steep as Santa Anitas,for s.a. I add 5-6 lengths for the downhill portion for 2nd call time.

Comments on that line says he Tracked the leader, this gelding was making his 3rd start,what i call a fit and fresh horse and primed for a maximum effort,hence it was proper to go deep into his pp,s for this line,this line dwarfs his comp. In a messy race like this it is better to use projected leaders
time,s at the pace calls. I have a photo of thier str,run from NAAS Race course.
THANK YOU for your reply.

[JEFF KENT]

Sorry It is the 8th line from naas course

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by JEFF KENT

The #7,s Final time was 121.2
Working backwards-6 f,s=108.3
5 f,s=55.4
4 f,s=43.0-"ETC."

I,had checked thier,s and other Irish racing sites,and all I could find was that it has a uphill stretch run,nothing was said about the back side,even if there is a downhill,it probably is not as steep as Santa Anitas,for s.a. I add 5-6 lengths for the downhill portion for 2nd call time.

Comments on that line says he Tracked the leader, this gelding was making his 3rd start,what i call a fit and fresh horse and primed for a maximum effort,hence it was proper to go deep into his pp,s for this line,this line dwarfs his comp. In a messy race like this it is better to use projected leaders
time,s at the pace calls. I have a photo of thier str,run from NAAS Race course.
THANK YOU for your reply.

OK, so if we go in the other direction, the time line for the #7 horse would look like this.

19.0 - 43.4 - 108.3 - 121.2

And the comment says that the #7 horse "STALKED" the leaders?
So I guess the #7 was a length, 2 lengths behind?
So the leader was running an 18.0+ opening first fraction?
Do "quarter horses" run that fast?

So no matter what direction you calculate the fractions, either the first or last fraction is "unbelievably" fast.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

OK, so if we go in the other direction, the time line for the #7 horse would look like this.

19.0 - 43.4 - 108.3 - 121.2

And the comment says that the #7 horse "STALKED" the leaders?
So I guess the #7 was a length, 2 lengths behind?
So the leader was running an 18.0+ opening first fraction?
Do "quarter horses" run that fast?

So no matter what direction you calculate the fractions, either the first or last fraction is "unbelievably" fast.

FTL..the 6.2 is adjusted to the final time only on like distances.
There is internal adjustments when going sprint/route or route/sprint.