Making Track Models - Pace and Cap

porkchop · 05-20-2010, 07:03 PM

Hey guys, working on building my first track model using the export to excel feature, and thought I would ask some questions. I'm afraid this might be long, so I apologize in advance.

My first track is Belmont, and I figured this is how I would seperate my spreadsheet tabs:

Dirt 6.0f, Dirt, 6.5f, Dirt 7.0f, etc. Do the same .5f increments for Turf, along with seperate tabs that gathers all the dirt sprints together, dirt routes together, and the same for turf, so that I can get a general overall view.

What about class of race? Does anyone seperate the allowances from the stakes from the cheap claimers, etc?

As far as getting the information for the winners, I have some confusion...

I have brought the race down to 5 contenders, and the #3 BL/BL horse wins. I go through the process of exporting to excel, copying/pasting, etc. no problems there.

Lets say I get down to the 5 contenders, and my #1 BL/BL horse is the 8/5 favorite, so Doc tells me to HIDE that horse. Now I have four contenders and either the 8/5 horse wins, or another horse that I tossed out wins the race. What do I do now concerning the track model? Rework the race to find the winner and then use that information? Toss this race out?

Lastly, lets use that last example with the #1 BL/BL horse again and apply a different situation to it.

My track model is telling me that at todays track/surface/distance, 85% of the winners have been first or second in LPR and FX (just throwing out an example). In my five contenders the #4 horse is first in LPR and FX, and the #8 horse is second in LPR and FX. Bet those two to win and call it a day, easy.

However, the #4 horse is going off at 8/5 so if I HIDE him. Now aren't my results skewed? Because the #8 horse is now first in LPR and FX, and the horse that was third in those categories is now second. So in reality I'm betting on the second and third LPR and FX horses, and not the ACTUAL first and second LPR and FX horses.

Sorry if that last part is confusing, I tried to word it best I could...that is one scenario that has been running through my head.

Thanks for any help guys.

clore1030 · 05-21-2010, 11:00 AM

Once I reduce a field to five contenders, I let it stand. My purpose is to find overlays, so if I get a run of low-odds horses who are top-ranked, it validates making a play when a relative longshot appears on top.

I always have the option of passing a race, so for my spot-playing style, this method works best.

As far as class of race goes, I just work with races for 20K and up as I have found that the inconsistency of the lower class races causes too much noise in my data.

For The Lead · 05-23-2010, 01:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by porkchop

Hey guys, working on building my first track model using the export to excel feature, and thought I would ask some questions. I'm afraid this might be long, so I apologize in advance.

My first track is Belmont, and I figured this is how I would seperate my spreadsheet tabs:

Dirt 6.0f, Dirt, 6.5f, Dirt 7.0f, etc. Do the same .5f increments for Turf, along with seperate tabs that gathers all the dirt sprints together, dirt routes together, and the same for turf, so that I can get a general overall view.

What about class of race? Does anyone seperate the allowances from the stakes from the cheap claimers, etc?

As far as getting the information for the winners, I have some confusion...

I have brought the race down to 5 contenders, and the #3 BL/BL horse wins. I go through the process of exporting to excel, copying/pasting, etc. no problems there.

Lets say I get down to the 5 contenders, and my #1 BL/BL horse is the 8/5 favorite, so Doc tells me to HIDE that horse. Now I have four contenders and either the 8/5 horse wins, or another horse that I tossed out wins the race. What do I do now concerning the track model? Rework the race to find the winner and then use that information? Toss this race out?

Lastly, lets use that last example with the #1 BL/BL horse again and apply a different situation to it.

My track model is telling me that at todays track/surface/distance, 85% of the winners have been first or second in LPR and FX (just throwing out an example). In my five contenders the #4 horse is first in LPR and FX, and the #8 horse is second in LPR and FX. Bet those two to win and call it a day, easy.

However, the #4 horse is going off at 8/5 so if I HIDE him. Now aren't my results skewed? Because the #8 horse is now first in LPR and FX, and the horse that was third in those categories is now second. So in reality I'm betting on the second and third LPR and FX horses, and not the ACTUAL first and second LPR and FX horses.

Sorry if that last part is confusing, I tried to word it best I could...that is one scenario that has been running through my head.

Thanks for any help guys.

First, there seems to be some confusion.
There are “track models” and there are “track profiles”.
Track “profiles” are based on the winner of the race ONLY. It is just a look at how the winner of each race ran and has nothing to do with the lines you selected or how it compared to the rest of the contenders. You categorized this just like you would with your track “models”.

Track “models”, on the other hand, ARE models of the winner (assuming you have it in your final contenders) and how it ranked among your contenders. You should enter the rankings for the winner, along with any other information you are modeling, regardless of whether or not you “hid” the winner.

If you want to make models that will serve you best, separate them by sex, distance, surface and class. Obviously maidens will not run the same as Stake horses. Claimers will not run the same as Allowance horses. Males and females generally do not run the same.

The more you “fine tune” your models, the better they will be.

mikesal57 · 05-23-2010, 05:34 PM

thats a lot of work FTL...are there any short cuts?

mike

porkchop · 05-23-2010, 07:36 PM

Thanks for the responses guys.

I only have a weeks worth of races in my model, but things are really coming together so far. Yesterday, and today, I have been watching the live feeds and making my selections based on the track model, without wagering. I can see how this can be a really strong tool, and it has given me a little confidence boost.

tizlinda · 05-23-2010, 10:07 PM

separating by gender, class and distance (btw.....are you separating distance by every possible distance or in general by sprints and routes) won't leave you with many races to profile within a given meet (or at least would take half or more of the meet to get enough to gain valuable information).

How long do you use your models for? I think I read 16 races was a good sample size, so since it could take weeks to get that do you use past meet models at the beginning of a meet with confidence?

For The Lead · 05-23-2010, 11:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57

thats a lot of work FTL...are there any short cuts?

mike

Sure Mike. Just keep in mind that "short cuts" with your work, results in "short cut" results, which generally are not too good!

For The Lead · 05-23-2010, 11:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tizlinda

separating by gender, class and distance (btw.....are you separating distance by every possible distance or in general by sprints and routes) won't leave you with many races to profile within a given meet (or at least would take half or more of the meet to get enough to gain valuable information).

How long do you use your models for? I think I read 16 races was a good sample size, so since it could take weeks to get that do you use past meet models at the beginning of a meet with confidence?

That's absolutely correct, but that is the price you pay for accurate information.

Not only do I model and/or profile by sex, distance (each and every distance), class and surface, but also by "condition", which is the reason I play tracks that have long meets. Tracks like Saratoga, Del Mar, Churchill Downs, Keenland and others do not lend themselves to good model and profile building since they have short meets.

I do not believe in picking up a model from the last meet which ended months ago and play from that at the beginning of a new meet. You can keep it in mind as a possible guide, but a new meet could generate new profiles and models.

I have always found that results have a direct correlation to the amount of work one is willing to put into it.

tizlinda · 05-24-2010, 02:53 PM

I also believe in work. I am not trying to shortcut anything, but am trying to figure out what you guys do. There is always, however, a point of diminishing returns. Has anyone found that to be true when creating track models? How many races do you need in your model to feel comfortable using it? Do you really find a big difference between 10k claimers going 5.5F vs 6F or 6.5 F? Is it really possible to get enough races even in a long meet to fill so many different models?

I am interested in which tracks have the longest meets, can you let me know what your favorites are?

RichieP · 05-24-2010, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tizlinda

I am interested in which tracks have the longest meets

Mountaineer, Charlestown, Philly, Penn National, Woodbine and Calder run the longest meets.

05-21-2010, 11:00 AM	#2
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	Once I reduce a field to five contenders, I let it stand. My purpose is to find overlays, so if I get a run of low-odds horses who are top-ranked, it validates making a play when a relative longshot appears on top. I always have the option of passing a race, so for my spot-playing style, this method works best. As far as class of race goes, I just work with races for 20K and up as I have found that the inconsistency of the lower class races causes too much noise in my data. Last edited by clore1030; 05-21-2010 at 11:02 AM.

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05-20-2010, 07:03 PM	#1
porkchop AlwNW1X Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 19	Making Track Models Hey guys, working on building my first track model using the export to excel feature, and thought I would ask some questions. I'm afraid this might be long, so I apologize in advance. My first track is Belmont, and I figured this is how I would seperate my spreadsheet tabs: Dirt 6.0f, Dirt, 6.5f, Dirt 7.0f, etc. Do the same .5f increments for Turf, along with seperate tabs that gathers all the dirt sprints together, dirt routes together, and the same for turf, so that I can get a general overall view. What about class of race? Does anyone seperate the allowances from the stakes from the cheap claimers, etc? As far as getting the information for the winners, I have some confusion... I have brought the race down to 5 contenders, and the #3 BL/BL horse wins. I go through the process of exporting to excel, copying/pasting, etc. no problems there. Lets say I get down to the 5 contenders, and my #1 BL/BL horse is the 8/5 favorite, so Doc tells me to HIDE that horse. Now I have four contenders and either the 8/5 horse wins, or another horse that I tossed out wins the race. What do I do now concerning the track model? Rework the race to find the winner and then use that information? Toss this race out? Lastly, lets use that last example with the #1 BL/BL horse again and apply a different situation to it. My track model is telling me that at todays track/surface/distance, 85% of the winners have been first or second in LPR and FX (just throwing out an example). In my five contenders the #4 horse is first in LPR and FX, and the #8 horse is second in LPR and FX. Bet those two to win and call it a day, easy. However, the #4 horse is going off at 8/5 so if I HIDE him. Now aren't my results skewed? Because the #8 horse is now first in LPR and FX, and the horse that was third in those categories is now second. So in reality I'm betting on the second and third LPR and FX horses, and not the ACTUAL first and second LPR and FX horses. Sorry if that last part is confusing, I tried to word it best I could...that is one scenario that has been running through my head. Thanks for any help guys. Last edited by porkchop; 05-20-2010 at 07:05 PM.

05-23-2010, 05:34 PM	#4
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	thats a lot of work FTL...are there any short cuts? mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

05-23-2010, 07:36 PM	#5
porkchop AlwNW1X Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 19	Thanks for the responses guys. I only have a weeks worth of races in my model, but things are really coming together so far. Yesterday, and today, I have been watching the live feeds and making my selections based on the track model, without wagering. I can see how this can be a really strong tool, and it has given me a little confidence boost.

05-23-2010, 10:07 PM	#6
tizlinda AlwNW2X Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 20	separating by gender, class and distance (btw.....are you separating distance by every possible distance or in general by sprints and routes) won't leave you with many races to profile within a given meet (or at least would take half or more of the meet to get enough to gain valuable information). How long do you use your models for? I think I read 16 races was a good sample size, so since it could take weeks to get that do you use past meet models at the beginning of a meet with confidence?

05-24-2010, 02:53 PM	#9
tizlinda AlwNW2X Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 20	I also believe in work. I am not trying to shortcut anything, but am trying to figure out what you guys do. There is always, however, a point of diminishing returns. Has anyone found that to be true when creating track models? How many races do you need in your model to feel comfortable using it? Do you really find a big difference between 10k claimers going 5.5F vs 6F or 6.5 F? Is it really possible to get enough races even in a long meet to fill so many different models? I am interested in which tracks have the longest meets, can you let me know what your favorites are?