chuckg - October Learn to Win

[chuckg]

$50 on 4 to Win
$50 on 7 to Place

5 Earlies and 2 Unerlies in this race.

Matching Earlies:

Two things going on with the 4 horse:
Is Fastest Pace Last Race and gained on that pace from 1st call to 2nd call.
1hd fighter at 1st call.



Horses 1 and 5 come from a slow tandem race and were tossed.

3 and 6 need the lead to win but are shown breaking 3rd and 2nd, and running the exact same time to the 1st Call.

Matching Unearlies:

7 is positionally closer to the leaders at the 1st and 2nd call.


Betting two horses, best Early and best Unearly from the BL/BL.

Betting the Tier 1 horse to place because my Tier 1 horses finish second more often than first.

[chuckg]

Well, that's one way to turn $100 into $110.

The place bet was the key to allow for my primary win bet. I figured that as long as the favorite did not win or place the 7 horse at 7/2 ML would pay at least $4.00. It did pay $4.40 to place. As an aside, it payed $6.60 to win which is the highest I've seen my first Tier horse pay in the last 100 or so races for which I have records.



My main bet was an 8 to 1 early horse who showed tonight. Normally, I throw out all earlies if there are more than one and bet on whichever two late horses are destined to run 2nd, 3rd or off the board. My September contest was full of those types of results.

One of my goals for October's contest was to learn how to handle the early horses. Here is where I got the courage for today's bet.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=15547&postcount=58

[chuckg]

$40 to win on 7
$60 to place on 7

Hiding the favorite and tossing the earlies.



Verifying the 7 horse with a confirming line at today's track condition (good).

[chuckg]

Hiding the favorite and throwing out the earlies actually got the winner at $7.00. The horse I chose wound up getting bet down to become the favorite. Both horses had the same running style and similar pacelines to choose from. I went for the higher odds according to the ML. Looking at the race after the fact, betting both horses to win or waiting until one minute to post to wait for odds would have been a better choice here. The winner had a ML of 5/2 and went off at 5/2.

[chuckg]

$50 on 5 to Win
$50 on 7 to Place

Paceline selection I chose the most recent at a similar pace. This turned out to be mostly best of last three. I saw that the 5 had two lines at the same pace where it ran from midpack and gained position and/or lengths at each call.



Hiding the favorite and throwing out all the earlies.

Except that the 7 ran in the Fastest Pace Last Race and gained lengths and position at every call. So, I'm not willing to throw that one out with all the rest of the earlies.

BL/BL with entire field.



BL/BL with 5 contenders.
Puts the 7 down into the Longshot Tier.



At 8 to 1 it would pay $18, so the price is right. Runstyle would be compromised by the presence of the other earlies. Making a place bet as the counter energy horse.

[chuckg]

$50 on 2 to Win
$25 on 5 to Win/Place

Sprinters going route against two early energy horses. Taking the two best counter energy horses.

[chuckg]

Loss.

2 was overtaken by 6, finished 2nd.

[chuckg]

$40 to win on 1
$60 to win on 1

1 beat 8. 8 beat all other contenders.

[chuckg]

Not much to write home about, but ya might as well take it if it is there asking for you to take it.

[chuckg]

$50 to Win on 6
$25 to Win/Place on 3

Hiding the favorite and tossing the earlies.
6 tends to run closer to the front than the 3.