Stomping chalk - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 08-30-2012, 11:56 PM

Betting chalk is not my idea of a good time.

However, have a friend who does that. In fact that's all he does. He only bets on "can't lose" horses and he bets big -- $600 to $1,000 on the nose, sometimes even more. He'll go as low as 4/5. He averages maybe one bet a day or less, usually on the feature race at NYRA or California.

I've always thought this was a nonsensical way to play.

So, I devised a little experiment.

I bet $2 to win on every horse in a dirt race that was tops in EP, LP and TE. Granted they don't come along too often and they're always the favorite.

The last bet in this series was the #2 horse tonight in the second race at HOO. It won paying $2.80.

There was no odds qualification and I advance bet all of these.

How did it make out? From January 12 to today there were a total of 98 bets.
53 of them won, for a win percentage of 54.08%.
The gross was $223.60 and the cost was $196. The net profit was $27.60.

This means the Return on Investment was 1.14. Or, another way of looking at is for every dollar bet you got back $1.14.

Of course if I'd bet more than $2 at HOO I may have affected the odds.

Nonetheless this was an interesting little experiment which surprised me. I thought for sure it would be a loser. It wasn't.

There's no point here. Just thought I'd mention it.

lsosa54 · 08-31-2012, 12:12 PM

I had a play going basically on the same type of horses (I used a different rating system) that produced around a 65% hit rate with a 35% ROI when I left it, so I'm not surprised. I shared my Excel worksheets with Ted. Bet all tracks but I did find some that were more profitable - MNR was one at the time.

Work has been too busy ever since. The worksheet I shared had around 500 plays and I ran it out to about 750 before I stopped. Damned job.

I also have an internal aversion to favorites - makes my skin crawl.

clore1030 · 09-01-2012, 12:43 PM

What interests me more in all of that David is how to work the other side to my advantage.

That is, what happened in the other 45.92 races that could yield better gains. How could I know when to toss out the favorite almost half the time with some certainty?

Granted, I realize that wasn't what you were looking for, it's just my contrarian thinking.

Thanks for sharing.

clore1030 · 09-01-2012, 01:10 PM

That should have been "45.92% of the races..."

davew · 09-07-2012, 07:14 PM

If you are trying to 'bet against' chalk

you should try to find a selection method that will give you a -45% ROI on the chalk - and skip those races chalk figures well

exactor · 10-03-2012, 09:53 AM

Could one not say that longshot betting in general is part of the gambling mentality I think Sartin warned against, even if it's done with two win bets. After all the connections maybe don't even except it to win in this race, so seems like a gamble to me. Seems more reasonable to me to try exactas or trifectas if the odds are not satisfactory, and I also can think of anything better than pace analysis for finding a place horse. Maybe Sartin didn't focus on this because he wanted quick and easy bets for his clients.

08-30-2012, 11:56 PM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Stomping chalk Betting chalk is not my idea of a good time. However, have a friend who does that. In fact that's all he does. He only bets on "can't lose" horses and he bets big -- $600 to $1,000 on the nose, sometimes even more. He'll go as low as 4/5. He averages maybe one bet a day or less, usually on the feature race at NYRA or California. I've always thought this was a nonsensical way to play. So, I devised a little experiment. I bet $2 to win on every horse in a dirt race that was tops in EP, LP and TE. Granted they don't come along too often and they're always the favorite. The last bet in this series was the #2 horse tonight in the second race at HOO. It won paying $2.80. There was no odds qualification and I advance bet all of these. How did it make out? From January 12 to today there were a total of 98 bets. 53 of them won, for a win percentage of 54.08%. The gross was $223.60 and the cost was $196. The net profit was $27.60. This means the Return on Investment was 1.14. Or, another way of looking at is for every dollar bet you got back $1.14. Of course if I'd bet more than $2 at HOO I may have affected the odds. Nonetheless this was an interesting little experiment which surprised me. I thought for sure it would be a loser. It wasn't. There's no point here. Just thought I'd mention it.

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08-31-2012, 12:12 PM	#2
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	I had a play going basically on the same type of horses (I used a different rating system) that produced around a 65% hit rate with a 35% ROI when I left it, so I'm not surprised. I shared my Excel worksheets with Ted. Bet all tracks but I did find some that were more profitable - MNR was one at the time. Work has been too busy ever since. The worksheet I shared had around 500 plays and I ran it out to about 750 before I stopped. Damned job. I also have an internal aversion to favorites - makes my skin crawl.

09-01-2012, 12:43 PM	#3
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	What interests me more in all of that David is how to work the other side to my advantage. That is, what happened in the other 45.92 races that could yield better gains. How could I know when to toss out the favorite almost half the time with some certainty? Granted, I realize that wasn't what you were looking for, it's just my contrarian thinking. Thanks for sharing.

09-01-2012, 01:10 PM	#4
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	That should have been "45.92% of the races..."

09-07-2012, 07:14 PM	#5
davew AlwNW2X Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 21	If you are trying to 'bet against' chalk you should try to find a selection method that will give you a -45% ROI on the chalk - and skip those races chalk figures well

10-03-2012, 09:53 AM	#6
exactor AlwNW1X Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 8	Could one not say that longshot betting in general is part of the gambling mentality I think Sartin warned against, even if it's done with two win bets. After all the connections maybe don't even except it to win in this race, so seems like a gamble to me. Seems more reasonable to me to try exactas or trifectas if the odds are not satisfactory, and I also can think of anything better than pace analysis for finding a place horse. Maybe Sartin didn't focus on this because he wanted quick and easy bets for his clients.