PRX 1st, 2.5.13

[For The Lead]

NOTHING in horse racing wins 100% of the time.
NOTHING in horse racing losses 100% of the time.

With that said, there are still times when betting against certain things can be profitable. The first race at PRX today presented just such an opportunity, but first, a little background.

As I usually do when researching something, I take two years and look at the statistics. I have found that using two years, which takes in more than 80,000 races, provides a stable result. In this case, I was looking at horses that just broke their maiden and are meeting other winners for the first time. These types of horses are repeat winners about 10% of the time or once in ten tries. Not a real good percentage and it means that YOU can be successful betting against these types of horses 90% of the time, as long as you can pick the correct horse.
Now I don't want any reader to think that I just looked this up for the first time today, AFTER the race. This is a statistic I have known for a LONG TIME, but I wanted to lay it out so the reader understands.
At any rate, the first race at PRX today provided a good opportunity. There were only 6 horses in the race. Three of them were coming off their maiden victory. One of them had one try at this same level in its' last race just after winning its' maiden victory two races back. Here are the horses and lines I choose for each horse. Note my markings.



In addition to noting that most of the horses in this race are coming off their maiden victory, also note that it is these same horses that make up the early running in the race, being either "E" or "EP". This sort of "sets the stage" for another horse to come from off the pace to win the race since it is unlikely one of the maiden victory horses will win. If that is true, we are left with just two horses. Let's take a look at the segments screen with all the horses.



As you can see, the #5 horse has the second best first fraction time, putting it right near the leaders. The #2 horse is calculated to be 10 lengths behind at the first fraction, giving that horse a lot of work to do. Although the second fraction shows the #2 horse catching up (I doubt that it would actually happen that way), the final segment shows the #5 horse ahead of the #2 horse.
And now the chart of the race.



This is what the PP's will look like the next time these horses run.
Notice how close the winner was to the leaders at the 1st call and 2nd call.

[noddub62]

Great Post! A nugget worth keeping in my pocket. Thanks for all your teachings!

Bud

[Bill Lyster]

Bud,

In followup to your last great example, and on the other side of the coin perhaps, what traits in first outing after maiden wins do you like that might signal that 1 in 10 chance of winning?

Best early?
Best 2nd fraction amoung best early, or any thing else...?

Thanks for all the info. My FTL gets better and bigger every week.

Bill

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Bud,

In followup to your last great example, and on the other side of the coin perhaps, what traits in first outing after maiden wins do you like that might signal that 1 in 10 chance of winning?

Best early?
Best 2nd fraction amoung best early, or any thing else...?

Thanks for all the info. My FTL gets better and bigger every week.

Bill

Bill,

Sorry, I don't know.

I never followed that side of the coin.

[Bill V.]

Here is my look at race 3 from Parx on 2/16/13

FTL wrote in post 1

As I usually do when researching something, I take two years and look at the statistics. I have found that using two years, which takes in more than 80,000 races, provides a stable result. In this case, I was looking at horses that just broke their maiden and are meeting other winners for the first time. These types of horses are repeat winners about 10% of the time or once in ten tries. Not a real good percentage and it means that YOU can be successful betting against these types of horses 90% of the time, as long as you can pick the correct horse.
Now I don't want any reader to think that I just looked this up for the first time today, AFTER the race. This is a statistic I have known for a LONG TIME, but I wanted to lay it out so the reader understands.

Here is my look This is a SA25000 here are the conditions
And have never won 2 races

[Bill V.]

Horses

[Bill V.]

5 6 7 8

[Bill V.]

Pacelines



segs



Results
The race did not exactly run to form but what I'm trying to do with the
projected pace is see who can run a plus race against what I project for todays race If I can be within 2 fifth I am happy I did good here
The 3 did get the lead The 4 pressed the 1 ran second
It was not the recent maiden winner #8s day !

[JIMBOB1002]

Hi Bill, thanks for posting these races their always very helpful. I think for some reason I'm still a little confused about the segment screen. How can you tell #3 and #4 are still in the lead after F2. You had stated add F1 and F2 not sure what your meaning by that. Thanks Jim

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by JIMBOB1002

Hi Bill, thanks for posting these races their always very helpful. I think for some reason I'm still a little confused about the segment screen. How can you tell #3 and #4 are still in the lead after F2. You had stated add F1 and F2 not sure what your meaning by that. Thanks Jim

Hi Jim
Thats the basis of the match up
The problem with just using a horses EP ( second call ) from a paceline
is that races don't start from a gate at the second call. We need to know how they will get to the second call
By using all your tools and doing a visual ESP for every horse in the race
you will know at the second call how the match up stands based on
the horses behavior patterns and early ability at the break and first fraction.
The match up involves finding
how they will get to the EP or second call point in today's race

For RDSS users and users of some other Sartin programs
like Thoromation we have the segments screen

The segments screen is an amazing tool
Ted did a great job because this one screen is actually showing the Match Up
Its really like 6 different screens all in one so you need to under stand
how each little screen is tied together and shows the Match Up in a picture form like the old Thoromation stop action pre plays.
But you must read the Picture correctly
because this is not how the race will run in the F2 panel particually

As you can see in the map I have made here
There are 6 small screens but lets just focus on the F1 SC and F1 and F2 portions from left to right
1. The F1 Comp Beaten Lengths

2. The SECOND CALL Computed Beaten Lengths and or The EP Rating on BLBL and Phase 1 ( tpr)

3, The 3rd fraction CBL This is the LP Rating
Then we have 3 more readouts

4. The First Fraction Position of the horses - This is how the horses would take off and hit the wire at the first fraction This is the way RDSS is projecting the first fraction MATCH UP

THIS IS IMPORTANT - This is the only segment preplay that is showing the race in picture form as Thoromation did

5. This is the 2nd Fraction Its the same readout as you see on the Primary line score and Velocity screens for the Second Fraction. The position of the horses is reflecting the moves the horse made in second fraction only

6 This is the 3rd fraction and Total Speed

In today's race the 3 and 4 win the race if the race was just the first fraction By using the 0.0 and percentages from the 0.0
and little horse Icons you can see the 3 and 4 have an advantage
When you look at the EP ratings on the TPR and BLBL screen you will see
that the 7 and 8 are top 2 but races don't start at the second call from another gate
Its how they got to the second call that's makes the Match Up
Looking at the F2 segment yes the 7 and 8 are 1-2 but what happened to
the 3 and 4 this is where the 0.0 percentage numbers come into play
The 7 and 8 made big moves to catch up to the 3 and 4 but the 3 and 4 are still ahead
because they ran just about as well in the second fraction The position of the little horses
is not the way the race will look here, but it can be in other races
You have to look at the 0.0 numbers and the horses in relation to the total race .
I will stop here The 3rd panel is even more complex
it important to learn in small bites.