Turf Paradise Closing Day - Pace and Cap

Capcondo · 05-07-2013, 10:47 AM

It looks like the weather is going to cooperate. The card is not great. But it looks like there may be a few interesting races.

To PeteC: I just read your PM to me from a few weeks ago. Sorry I missed the opportunity to match with you then.

I will post my analysis after I've had my coffee this morning!

Tim

PeteC · 05-07-2013, 12:37 PM

Good morning Tim, no worries about the PM. I'm glad this worked out for today though. Here is a quick take on a few of the races:

Race #2
In this race I liked the runners from the FPLR tandem: 2,3 and 5. The 2 was the best-finisher in the tandem but the 3 stumbled at the start and the 5 fought for 2 calls and still only was beaten by the 2 less than a length. 5 & 3 for me.

Race #6:

I used the POR for #5 here. He is my top pick fighting for three calls against the pace. The 2 and 10 were my secondary contenders, showing that they can run well against today's pace.

Race #7:

I thought this race had a pretty interesting runner in the #9 horse. This one is coming out of a VERY fast mile last time where it was on the pace all the way. Pace projection was a little tough in this one for me but I'm thinking 22.3 / 22.4. The 9 was run well sprinting against the pace previously. The 5 ran in the same race as the 9 and moved 5-3-3 positionally and gained lengths from 1C-2C and 2C-SC. It doesn't show any sprints in the PP's but shows one win from 3 starts lifetime sprinting. That's my second choice.

I'm leaving the turf marathon alone, but that's a cool way to end the meeting, the Hasta La Vista.

Anyway, looking forward to your thoughts. I also wanted to ask you about the other turf distances there. I notice the "about distances" and "regular distances" I've been keeping track of some of the times this season to try to get a handle on how they differ. I want to see if I could benefit from manually adjusting the raw times when matching.

Pete

Capcondo · 05-07-2013, 01:34 PM

Race #7: #10 is out.
Race #8: #5 is out.

Capcondo · 05-07-2013, 02:14 PM

Race #2: The FPLR tandem for the 2,3, and 5 looks much faster than anyone of them has run. I am going to go with the 4 who will run close and can pass horses.

Race #6: I come down to the 2 and 5 tandem. I see the 5 as a lone early who can fight shortening up. I'm a bit worried about the 8 putting pressure on him. I'll take the 5.

Race #7: The 10 is scratched. This is pretty much a paceless race. The 6 is a worry off some fast paces. But the 1 and the 1A show good races from California (I'll forgive the last race of the 1 when he had trouble). The 1 is my choice. He should be ahead of the 1A.

Race #8: RichieP did a video some time ago on PaceAdvantage I believe relating to 2 YO which is quite good. You could probably find it by googling 'RichieP' There was a hathelper that said that these kind of races are won OTE. I see early speed in the 9,4, and maybe the 3 (the 3 had trouble at the start in the last race. The power move OTE for me is the 10 who also had trouble at the start as did half the field. The 10 is my choice.

Race #9: The Hasta La Vista is a marathon on the turf. Bill Lyster does a very good job with these. See his analysis in another thread under matchup discussion. I see the 3 getting a mile in 1:36.3 (I don't like to use flat mile races like Bill but he has so few at other distances. The 9 also shows a race against a 1:35.3 back in October at SA. Although he's a deep closer, in 1 1/2mile races, he has run much closer positionally to the lead. The 9 is my choice.

GL,

Tim

Bill Lyster · 05-07-2013, 03:50 PM

Tim:

I see the 2 as best presser having made up most ground against fastest pace in its only start (win).

Other OTE made up ground vs slower paces. TT for the two is either 23 or a hair under. Ideally the best presser should be able to run from about 3rd-4th this race but most only have 1-2 races, so we really cannot know this as much as we'd like. Based on one race the 8 might be in the garden spot if it can improve - at a price perhaps!

Course in this race anyone could get better after one or two races???

GL

Bill Lyster · 05-07-2013, 04:37 PM

Pete and Tim:
Nice going on race 2. I ran with your picks and boxed the 3-4-5 for a nice exacta.

Keep up the good work.

PeteC · 05-07-2013, 05:56 PM

Thanks Bill. Will do. Nice to start off with a $9 winner. I haven't had a chance to look over your analysis of the marathon but I'm looking forward to it. You do very well with those.

Hey Tim, that 2nd race made me think of a comment you made (sorry i don't remember exactly where) about when the FPLR is a tandem race today's winner often comes from that tandem. That would be fun to research...How often one of the tandem horse wins overall, how often each of our 1st choice and 2nd choice from the tandem wins, what odds on each choice would produce a profit, etc. Someone has probably done that research but I haven't seen it.

Good luck the rest of the afternoon...

Capcondo · 05-07-2013, 07:31 PM

Nice hit Pete and Bill. Too bad I don't take my own advice on the FPLR that is a tandem. It was from the race at Hawthorne a week or two ago. This was kind of fun working a card. We should do it again.

PeteC · 05-07-2013, 11:18 PM

Well, the day started well...

It was fun to follow along with you guys. We should try this again...Here are the charts....

05-07-2013, 01:34 PM	#3
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Scratches at TuP 5/7/13 Race #7: #10 is out. Race #8: #5 is out.

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05-07-2013, 10:47 AM	#1
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Turf Paradise Closing Day It looks like the weather is going to cooperate. The card is not great. But it looks like there may be a few interesting races. To PeteC: I just read your PM to me from a few weeks ago. Sorry I missed the opportunity to match with you then. I will post my analysis after I've had my coffee this morning! Tim

05-07-2013, 12:37 PM	#2
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Closing Day Good morning Tim, no worries about the PM. I'm glad this worked out for today though. Here is a quick take on a few of the races: Race #2 In this race I liked the runners from the FPLR tandem: 2,3 and 5. The 2 was the best-finisher in the tandem but the 3 stumbled at the start and the 5 fought for 2 calls and still only was beaten by the 2 less than a length. 5 & 3 for me. Race #6: I used the POR for #5 here. He is my top pick fighting for three calls against the pace. The 2 and 10 were my secondary contenders, showing that they can run well against today's pace. Race #7: I thought this race had a pretty interesting runner in the #9 horse. This one is coming out of a VERY fast mile last time where it was on the pace all the way. Pace projection was a little tough in this one for me but I'm thinking 22.3 / 22.4. The 9 was run well sprinting against the pace previously. The 5 ran in the same race as the 9 and moved 5-3-3 positionally and gained lengths from 1C-2C and 2C-SC. It doesn't show any sprints in the PP's but shows one win from 3 starts lifetime sprinting. That's my second choice. I'm leaving the turf marathon alone, but that's a cool way to end the meeting, the Hasta La Vista. Anyway, looking forward to your thoughts. I also wanted to ask you about the other turf distances there. I notice the "about distances" and "regular distances" I've been keeping track of some of the times this season to try to get a handle on how they differ. I want to see if I could benefit from manually adjusting the raw times when matching. Pete

05-07-2013, 02:14 PM	#4
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Race #2: The FPLR tandem for the 2,3, and 5 looks much faster than anyone of them has run. I am going to go with the 4 who will run close and can pass horses. Race #6: I come down to the 2 and 5 tandem. I see the 5 as a lone early who can fight shortening up. I'm a bit worried about the 8 putting pressure on him. I'll take the 5. Race #7: The 10 is scratched. This is pretty much a paceless race. The 6 is a worry off some fast paces. But the 1 and the 1A show good races from California (I'll forgive the last race of the 1 when he had trouble). The 1 is my choice. He should be ahead of the 1A. Race #8: RichieP did a video some time ago on PaceAdvantage I believe relating to 2 YO which is quite good. You could probably find it by googling 'RichieP' There was a hathelper that said that these kind of races are won OTE. I see early speed in the 9,4, and maybe the 3 (the 3 had trouble at the start in the last race. The power move OTE for me is the 10 who also had trouble at the start as did half the field. The 10 is my choice. Race #9: The Hasta La Vista is a marathon on the turf. Bill Lyster does a very good job with these. See his analysis in another thread under matchup discussion. I see the 3 getting a mile in 1:36.3 (I don't like to use flat mile races like Bill but he has so few at other distances. The 9 also shows a race against a 1:35.3 back in October at SA. Although he's a deep closer, in 1 1/2mile races, he has run much closer positionally to the lead. The 9 is my choice. GL, Tim

05-07-2013, 03:50 PM	#5
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	rACE 8 Tim: I see the 2 as best presser having made up most ground against fastest pace in its only start (win). Other OTE made up ground vs slower paces. TT for the two is either 23 or a hair under. Ideally the best presser should be able to run from about 3rd-4th this race but most only have 1-2 races, so we really cannot know this as much as we'd like. Based on one race the 8 might be in the garden spot if it can improve - at a price perhaps! Course in this race anyone could get better after one or two races??? GL

05-07-2013, 04:37 PM	#6
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Pete and Tim: Nice going on race 2. I ran with your picks and boxed the 3-4-5 for a nice exacta. Keep up the good work.

05-07-2013, 05:56 PM	#7
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Thanks Bill. Will do. Nice to start off with a $9 winner. I haven't had a chance to look over your analysis of the marathon but I'm looking forward to it. You do very well with those. Hey Tim, that 2nd race made me think of a comment you made (sorry i don't remember exactly where) about when the FPLR is a tandem race today's winner often comes from that tandem. That would be fun to research...How often one of the tandem horse wins overall, how often each of our 1st choice and 2nd choice from the tandem wins, what odds on each choice would produce a profit, etc. Someone has probably done that research but I haven't seen it. Good luck the rest of the afternoon...

05-07-2013, 07:31 PM	#8
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Nice hit Pete and Bill. Too bad I don't take my own advice on the FPLR that is a tandem. It was from the race at Hawthorne a week or two ago. This was kind of fun working a card. We should do it again.

05-07-2013, 11:18 PM	#9
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Well, the day started well... It was fun to follow along with you guys. We should try this again...Here are the charts.... Attached Images