Beware the LATE line

[Tim Y]

One of the FEW things discussed at Paceadvantage that has taught me anything is to beware any line one uses where the 2nd call was waddling time.

It often takes the form of seeing the BEST speed rating in the last several, and the ESP comes up late. If this horse does NOT REGULARLY RUN LATE ON DIRT go back and check the Pace of Race in that line. I will wager that 24 times out of 25 it was so slow relative to the other lines, that that race was a "gift" to this horse: so slow that it had tons left late to make a strong second move from the second call to the wire.

If today's pace projection does not show that the SAME 2nd call will it be the same "gift" today? DON'T use that line as it will project a LATE move from FAR back of the 2nd call and give you are erroneous result.

Here is a classic example that happened today. MANY would see this horse's 2nd and third lines as being equal with the same speed rating, but look at the energy distribution and the 2nd call of the pace of the race 2nd back: IT WAS CRAWLING and this horse has NO OTHER LATE LINES on dirt in the past 10. Don't use it