Model help - Pace and Cap

Jeebs · 07-19-2015, 12:36 PM

When gathering data for a Brohamer Model, how much data should I gather? What if it rains like Saturday at DMR? Do I start a fresh model on a fast track when it becomes fast again? I'm trying to figure out reliability.

Peteman · 07-19-2015, 02:54 PM

Hi,

When gathering data for a Brohammer Model, how much data should I gather?

I keep all the races I cap at the distance for the meet.
My friend just keeps just the last 10 races
we both try to avoid off tracks,and do not model it.
You might model 5 distances and only 2 might be playable.

When it becomes fast again? I'm trying to figure out reliability.

Great Question,it might change from one day to the next.Its taken me a
long time to realize that I need to put in rating indicators to follow changes
in the way the track playing in the last few races.I added to model.
Early signs, 1F,EP,(%med early rank 1-3),Late signs 3F,HE,(%med Late rank 1-3) there might be some one that can refer indicators in newer program
language.It has helped me point to way track is playing.

Best of luck Pete

Lt1 · 07-19-2015, 08:17 PM

I use to keep separate models for fast and off tracks but found that at most of the tracks I play there was little difference. Now I just note off trks on my model. On my model I note the ep,lp,cpr,vdc,bl/bl rank for each winner. I also model the %med and 3f of the winner. I maintain a separate model for the place horse using the same factors.
Tim

DaveEdwards · 07-20-2015, 01:57 PM

Lt1,

Can I ask if you link the win & place models. Something perhaps on the lines of the win model pointing to stronger ep then implying that the counter energy of the place model might then be favoured or do you keep them as separate entities?
Sorry, that was a bit messy, but hopefully you get my drift.

Thanks

Lt1 · 07-21-2015, 10:36 AM

Dave I keep 2 separate models 1 for win 1 for place.
Tim

DaveEdwards · 07-23-2015, 02:10 PM

Thanks Tim,
I just wondered if you'd ever looked into linking the results from both & what the outcome was.

Lt1 · 07-23-2015, 02:36 PM

Dave I'm not sure I understand what you are asking but no I never have. I find that, as I learned from Doc and the other teachers, the place horse usually runs opposite of the winner and the show horse the same as the winner. I am also aware of the matchup of some races will go against my model and I adjust accordingly.
Tim

DaveEdwards · 07-25-2015, 01:41 PM

Firstly Tim, sorry for my garbled question in the first place. As I was typing it I was wondering if I was making sense or not.
Essentially what I was asking was if you had looked for any links between your win & place models, maybe I was trying to overcomplicate things when it didn't need it. I have to confess to never having looked at a place model as yet, although I ought to as the data is easy to compile. Thanks for letting me know how you do things.

Lt1 · 07-25-2015, 04:43 PM

No problem Dave. All I can say is what I stated in post 7. The only other thing I can add is when I don't have a model I go with the RDSS bl/bl tiers but if I'm going to play and exacta I usually go with the top 2 early and late and look at payoffs for the combos.
Tim

07-19-2015, 12:36 PM	#1
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Model help When gathering data for a Brohamer Model, how much data should I gather? What if it rains like Saturday at DMR? Do I start a fresh model on a fast track when it becomes fast again? I'm trying to figure out reliability.

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07-19-2015, 02:54 PM	#2
Peteman Grade 2 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 97	Hi, When gathering data for a Brohammer Model, how much data should I gather? I keep all the races I cap at the distance for the meet. My friend just keeps just the last 10 races we both try to avoid off tracks,and do not model it. You might model 5 distances and only 2 might be playable. When it becomes fast again? I'm trying to figure out reliability. Great Question,it might change from one day to the next.Its taken me a long time to realize that I need to put in rating indicators to follow changes in the way the track playing in the last few races.I added to model. Early signs, 1F,EP,(%med early rank 1-3),Late signs 3F,HE,(%med Late rank 1-3) there might be some one that can refer indicators in newer program language.It has helped me point to way track is playing. Best of luck Pete

07-19-2015, 08:17 PM	#3
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	I use to keep separate models for fast and off tracks but found that at most of the tracks I play there was little difference. Now I just note off trks on my model. On my model I note the ep,lp,cpr,vdc,bl/bl rank for each winner. I also model the %med and 3f of the winner. I maintain a separate model for the place horse using the same factors. Tim

07-20-2015, 01:57 PM	#4
DaveEdwards Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: England Posts: 489	Lt1, Can I ask if you link the win & place models. Something perhaps on the lines of the win model pointing to stronger ep then implying that the counter energy of the place model might then be favoured or do you keep them as separate entities? Sorry, that was a bit messy, but hopefully you get my drift. Thanks

07-21-2015, 10:36 AM	#5
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	Dave I keep 2 separate models 1 for win 1 for place. Tim

07-23-2015, 02:10 PM	#6
DaveEdwards Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: England Posts: 489	Thanks Tim, I just wondered if you'd ever looked into linking the results from both & what the outcome was.

07-23-2015, 02:36 PM	#7
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	Dave I'm not sure I understand what you are asking but no I never have. I find that, as I learned from Doc and the other teachers, the place horse usually runs opposite of the winner and the show horse the same as the winner. I am also aware of the matchup of some races will go against my model and I adjust accordingly. Tim

07-25-2015, 01:41 PM	#8
DaveEdwards Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: England Posts: 489	Firstly Tim, sorry for my garbled question in the first place. As I was typing it I was wondering if I was making sense or not. Essentially what I was asking was if you had looked for any links between your win & place models, maybe I was trying to overcomplicate things when it didn't need it. I have to confess to never having looked at a place model as yet, although I ought to as the data is easy to compile. Thanks for letting me know how you do things.

07-25-2015, 04:43 PM	#9
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	No problem Dave. All I can say is what I stated in post 7. The only other thing I can add is when I don't have a model I go with the RDSS bl/bl tiers but if I'm going to play and exacta I usually go with the top 2 early and late and look at payoffs for the combos. Tim