|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
September Contest Enter your selections and SCREEN SHOTS and explanations here. Please start a new Thread with your User Name as Title |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
09-23-2012, 05:02 PM | #1 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 92
|
Pilot
Bel R9
$50 to win 2 $50 to win 11 |
09-23-2012, 09:00 PM | #2 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 92
|
Lost, I should have bet the 11 to place.
|
09-24-2012, 10:21 AM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Jeter In NY
Hello Pilot
Welcome to the contest. When I saw the ML of the 2 horse I thought, what would the odds be for this horse if it had a different name? Are you ever going to get good odds on this horse when it runs in NY and with # 2 Once again the crowd bet it down to the 2/1 favorite I remember they ran this horse on Belmont stakes day. Lets see close to 100.000 people at Belmont in NY and lets run a horse named Jeter do you think the horse was overbet just a little that day ? welcome aboard Bill |
09-24-2012, 11:14 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,854
|
Wayne,
Welcome to the contest - still time for 20 races! For your consideration, a few thoughts on this race. First, an alternate take on line selection and Win contender designation. Here are my BLBL and Original screen for the Winner #10. First, about #2 Jeter - in my practice, I almost never make a horse a Win contender in a Turf race if I cannot rate it off a Turf race. Let it beat me by winning first time on the Turf - but that happens (to me) very rarely and I am happy to have that guideline as a Win Contender separator. So, Jeter is a Secondary Contender - it is unproven on Turf. Second, If you use the Paceline Selection Strategy or general guideline Best of Last 3 Comparable, I believe a good case can be made to use #10's 4th line. It's last 2 lines were routes, though not too far distant from today's 7f and it ran credibly against a slower pace, so I see no problem with judging it fit. What can this horse do against a faster pace? The 4th line gives a clue, plus the horse is now 98 days more mature and seasoned. The 4th line is the Best of Last 3 Comparable. Even if you choose to use caution and use the 3rd line instead of the 4th, #10 is ranked 3rd on BLBL behind a 16-1 and a 10-1, and is itself the 2nd favourite at 3-1. You can then make a decision as to whether it belongs as one of your Win bets (given the possibly alternate ranking using the 4th line) along with your choice of those 2 longer priced horses - which some (me) would recommend betting to Win-Place. Just an alternate point of view! I did not play or bet this race. Best of luck this week! Ted
__________________
RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
09-24-2012, 02:47 PM | #5 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 92
|
Thanks Bill and Ted for a great explanation of the race.
Wayne Last edited by pilot; 09-24-2012 at 02:51 PM. |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
** Update: Saratoga 2012 Plans | Ted Craven | 2012 | 48 | 08-17-2012 11:55 AM |